436
FXUS61 KAKQ 150607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
207 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into New England with dry and mild
conditions through early Monday. Confidence continues to
increase in a coastal low impacting the region late Monday
through midweek, bringing widespread rain, cooler temperatures,
and breezy conditions. A warmup is expected by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 155 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds increase from south to north this morning.

- Patchy fog is possible across inland areas early this morning.

Latest analysis depicted a ~1008mb low pressure off the
Carolina coast and a 1027mb high centered over SE Canada, ridging
south into the local area. Aloft, there was a closed upper level
low over the Southeast coast with a tall/skinny ridge extending
from the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Canada.
Temps as of 150 AM ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s inland
with lower 70s along the coast. Skies were mostly clear except
for some high clouds building into SE VA/NE NC. Clouds are
expected to gradually spread north this morning. However, given
the clearing, some patchy fog is possible early this morning
across inland areas. Morning lows in the upper 50s to around 60F
inland (locally mid 50s) and upper 60s to around 70F along the
coast are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence that a coastal low will impact the
  region from Monday afternoon into Wednesday night, bringing
  widespread rainfall, cooler temperatures, and breezy
  conditions.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible, primarily on Tuesday and
  focused across the SE portions of the area including the
  Hampton Roads vicinity into NE NC.

The upper trough over the Southeast is forecast to cut off into a
closed low on Monday with surface low pressure lifting slowly
northward toward Cape Hatteras by the evening hours. Increasing
Atlantic moisture feed becomes established across the region with PW
values increasing to 1.8-2.0". 12z guidance suite has converged and
nearly all models show low pressure lifting along the NC coast and
then turning NW and moving inland on Tuesday as the upper low
remains to the SW of the surface feature. Confidence continues to
increase that widespread rainfall will impact the region along with
breezy to windy conditions, especially along the coast. Rain moves
into NE NC by Monday afternoon, spreading slowly N and W overnight.
Temperatures Monday will follow a similar configuration to today`s
with the relative warmest temps north and west of Richmond (near 80
degrees) with mid and upper 70s for the remainder of the area. Have
increased PoPs to likely/categorical for most of the area Monday
evening into Tuesday as surface low pressure moves inland across NC.
Winds likely peak Monday night into Tuesday. Not quite confident
enough at this point for a Wind Advisory but there is certainly the
potential, especially for coastal areas as the gradient will be
quite steep between the coastal low and high pressure anchored to
the north. Forecast soundings don`t show much in the way of
instability across region Monday and Monday night so have removed
the mention of thunder from most of the area during these periods.
Some elevated instability develops on Tuesday as onshore flow brings
some higher theta-e air into the region but this will be limited to
the SE quarter of the area. In areas to the N and W, widespread
clouds and rainfall will hold temps in the 60s to low 70s but robust
frontogenesis aloft may allow for a rumble of thunder or two.
Forecast for heavier rainfall lifts northward Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the surface low starts to move back to the east and
north. Temperatures will be similar on Wednesday with many Piedmont
locations not making it out of the 60s with mid to upper 70s along
the coast. Have maintained mention of thunder across the region on
Wednesday but suspect it will continue to favor the eastern half of
the area where the warmer surface temperatures will be confined.
Widespread rainfall totals average 1-3" across the region (lowest NW
and highest SE), though locally 4+ inches is possible before precip
comes to an end Wednesday night. WPC has included NE NC in a
Marginal ERO on Monday, extending north into the Hampton Roads
region on Tuesday. Given very dry antecedent conditions, not
expecting widespread flooding issues but will continue to monitor
the need for a targeted Flood Watch in subsequent forecast
cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves away from the area Thursday with rebounding
  temperatures.

- A backdoor front potentially moves into the region this weekend
  with cooler temperatures and increasing clouds.

Precip moves out of the area on Thursday with just slight chance
PoPs for NE portions of the area. High temps warm back into the
upper 70s to low 80s with clearing skies by late afternoon. Lows
Thursday night around 60 degrees inland and mid 60s near the coast.
Dry and warm on Friday with westerly surface winds. Highs climb into
the low/mid 80s before a backdoor front drops south across the area
as high pressure builds to the N of the region. Lows overnight
Friday into Saturday fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. Highs
Saturday around 80 degrees with lows again in the 50s and 60s.
Blended guidance suggests some low end precip chances on Sunday but
not much support from the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance
so very low confidence in the PoPs this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM EDT Monday...

Latest analysis depicted a ~1008mb low pressure off the
Carolina coast and a 1027mb high centered over SE Canada,
ridging south into the local area. Skies were mostly clear
early this morning apart from some high clouds building into SE
VA/NE NC. Given the clearing, some patchy fog is possible inland
early this morning, however, the fog should remain away from the
local terminals. Clouds increase later this morning from south
to north with mostly cloudy skies expected from late morning
through the 06z taf period. The coastal low offshore will slowly
move NW today, allowing for CIGs to gradually lower to MVFR at
ECG by ~15z and ORF by 23-00z. CIGs continue to lower overnight
with IFR CIGs possible at ECG after ~3z Tue and MVFR CIGs up to
PHF by the same timeframe. Light to moderate rain will begin to
move onshore across far SE VA/NE NC later this morning into
this afternoon, spreading inland through tonight. Rain could be
locally heavy at times tonight with IFR VIS possible. Otherwise,
NNE winds were light across most of the terminals and ~10 kt at
ECG early this morning. Expect winds to become NE 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt inland and ~20 kt with gusts up to ~30 kt at
ECG and areas closer to the coast later this morning through
tonight.

The coastal low pushes into eastern NC tonight and lingers into
midweek, leading to increased clouds, widespread rain, and a
prolonged period of reduced CIGs and VIS across all area
terminals. Conditions gradually improve Thursday, with dry and
VFR conditions returning by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in from Monday through Tuesday for 20-25 kt NE
  winds and elevated seas. SCAs remain in effect starting today
  feet for northern waters and the Chesapeake Bay north of
  Windmill Point for Monday and Tuesday. Gale Warnings have been
  issued for the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters, the lower
  Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the Currituck Sound.

- A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches with
  a Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through
  Monday. The rip risk increases to high across the northern
  beaches on Tuesday.

- A period of low-end gale force gusts cannot be ruled out across
  the middle and upper Bay Monday night-Tuesday.

Latest analysis reveals 1018mb surface high pressure just offshore
of the east coast and ridging south into the mid-Atlantic and
southeast CONUS. Weak low pressure remains off the coastal Carolinas
this afternoon, with the gradient between these features compelling
some gusty winds across the region. Winds are E-NE as of this writing
10-15 kt, highest over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters mainly south
of Cape Charles, with winds closer to 10 kt over the northern
waters. Seas are ~3-4 ft N and 5-7 ft S.

The building E-SE wind wave allow for seas to remain elevated
(5-6 ft) off the Currituck Outer Banks, and south of Cape
Charles, and the SCA remains in effect tonight. Winds remain
marginal, but look to increase late this afternoon into this
evening, and a SCA remains in place there as well. The pressure
gradient looks to briefly slacken to some extent this evening,
before tightening once again late tonight and Monday.

Marine conditions still look to deteriorate quickly from south to
north on Monday, and especially Monday night, as the weak low off
the Carolina coast deepens and lifts NNE toward the mid-Atlantic
coast. The 14/12z suite of guidance have continued the trend from
the past few runs towards a stronger low that lifts closer to the
mid-Atlantic coast. Winds likely increase to SCA criteria by
morning/midday Monday across the lower bay/lower James and SE VA/NE
NC coastal waters, with gusts to Gale Force expected by afternoon
and through the evening. Winds increase further Monday night as the
pressure gradient tightens a bit more due to the approaching low.
Peak winds will likely occur Monday night into Tuesday (NE around 25
kt with gusts to 25-35 kt). Local wind probs for 34+ kt wind gusts
have increased to 60-80+% along the coast and 40-60% in the lower
Ches Bay. Have therefore issued Gale Warnings for the coastal waters
south of Parramore Island, the lower Ches Bay south of New Point
Comfort, the lower James and the Currituck Sound. Gale starts Monday
morning over the coastal waters (with winds to increase through the
afternoon), with the Gales starting over the remaining areas
referenced Monday evening. Both run into Tuesday morning. Farther
north, SCA remain in effect. Gale Warnings may need to be extended
farther northward if model trends continue.

Winds gradually decrease from south to north from Tuesday evening
into Wednesday, as the vertically-stacked low tracks over the marine
area (resulting in a slackening pressure gradient). Sub-SCA winds
are then expected late this week. With the increasing NE winds, seas
will build to 7-10 ft by Mon night/Tue with 3-5 ft waves on the bay
(potentially to ~6 ft at the mouth of the bay). High Surf Advisories
are likely to be needed for VA Beach and the NE NC Outer Banks by
Monday evening. The high rip risk will continue for the southern
beaches through at least Tuesday. The rip risk is moderate across
the northern beaches from through Monday, increasing to high on Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

With the increasing NE winds and building seas Mon night-Tue, tidal
anomalies across the lower bay and SE VA/NE NC coast are expected
increase by 1-1.5 ft. Anomalies across the upper bay won`t increase
as much. This will likely result in another round of minor tidal
flooding across the tidal York/James, Middle/Lower Bay, and SE VA/NE
NC coast. ETSS shows solid to high-end minor flooding across these
locations, with peak water levels occurring during the Tuesday
evening high tide cycle. There is some potential for localized
moderate flooding at Jamestown/Lynnhaven, with the 4.5 ft MLLW
threshold falling between the 50th and 90th percentiles in the NAEFS
based P-ETSS. Peak water levels from the deterministic ETSS Tuesday
evening also generally fall between the 50th and 90th percentile
from the NAEFS-based P-ETSS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

         9/16 9/17
RIC    65/1959  61/2011
ORF    64/1963  65/1986
SBY    59/1963  63/1924
ECG    66/1963  65/2011

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ631.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ631-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ654-656.
     Gale Warning from noon today to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-
     656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...