496
FXUS61 KAKQ 110730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low tracks north toward the area today into tonight,
passing nearby Sunday, and lingering offshore into Monday.
Heavy rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are
likely near the coast tonight and Sunday. The low moves away by
Tuesday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Dry and
seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A coastal storm impacts the region later today into Sunday,
  bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
  moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at
  the immediate coast, and from late tonight through midday
  Sunday.

A complex surface pattern resides over the eastern CONUS this
morning. High pressure is now centered to the east and well offshore
of New England. However, it continues to ridge SW into the Mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas, keeping us mostly dry for now. The main
wx story over the next few days is the developing sfc low
offshore of FL, with the latest analysis placing its central
pressure around 1006 mb. For the first part of today, the dry wx
should mostly continue, outside of a brief shower or two in NE
NC and srn VA. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The coolest temps
are expected in the Piedmont where lower-level clouds should
reside for most of the day. As the low tracks northward this
afternoon, rain will gradually increase in coverage, first over
SE VA and NE NC in the mid-late afternoon and then elsewhere
this evening and tonight. QPF through 8 PM this evening will be
on the lighter side, generally 0.25" or less.

The brunt of the impacts from the coastal low are still anticipated
tonight through Sunday. The initial sfc low offshore of the Carolinas
should lift northward toward at least the srn NC coast tonight.
Beyond that time, there is STILL a good deal of spread in the model
guidance and ensembles surrounding the evolution of the low(s).
There are generally two camps in the guidance: 1) the initial sfc
low to our S remains the primary feature and moves northward
along the coast and potentially inland into NC and 2) a new low
becomes the primary low off of the the northern Mid-Altantic and
New England coasts, with a sprawling, bifurcated feature taking
over by later Sunday and Monday. The first scenario would
generally portend to more significant impacts across coastal
portions of the local area (especially in the wind and coastal
flooding department), while the second scenario would be more
impactful for those located NE of our forecast area. Overall,
though, the EPS and GEFS are in better agreement with the
00z/11 model cycle. This brings moderate to locally heavy
rainfall northward tonight into Sunday morning, with the highest
QPF over NE NC and srn VA during the 3 AM- 10 AM timeframe. Am
rather confident that our entire forecast area sees rain by
Sunday morning with 80-90% PoPs areawide. Continuing the trend
from the previous shift, QPF has continued to trend down and the
highest totals remain focused well of E I-95, with a wide swath
of 1-1.5". SE VA and NE NC have the best chance of seeing 2"+,
though EPS and GEFS probs drop off to nearly zero for 4"+. It`s
still important to mention that some CAMs are more aggressive
in showing heavier rainfall extending further inland.
Oppositely, rain totals would be quite a bit lower than our
forecast shows should a solution like the 00z ECMWF verify.
No Flood Watches given persisting uncertainties, totals
trending lower, and dry antecedent conditions.

Winds will also increase as the low moves north and the highest
winds are expected just N of the elongated sfc low feature and
coastal front. The highest winds are expected late tonight for
coastal NC and VA, shifting north to the Atlantic-facing side of the
VA and MD Eastern Shore after sunrise Sunday morning. Forecasted
wind gusts at the immediate coast are 45-55 mph, with some potential
for 40-45 mph gusts a bit inland into southside Hampton Roads and on
the MD Eastern Shore (toward Salisbury) as well. Wind Advisories
will be issued for the NC OBX, VA Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, and
coastal counties on the Eastern Shore with this forecast package
starting tonight. While there is some potential for 55+ mph gusts
(in a brief window around sunrise Sunday), think these readings
would be sparse and short-lived and not enough to warrant any High
Wind Warnings.

Rain lingers through the rest of Sunday as the large low feature
remains near the area, though the rain intensity should really drop
off by the later afternoon and evening. The winds will also slowly
subside, but remaining breezy to windy near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A lingering coastal low offshore will lead to continuing
  chances for rain and breezy conditions Monday.

- Slowly drying out Tuesday as the low finally departs well
  offshore.

The upper pattern is not very progressive and favors a
stagnant pattern through at least Monday as a sprawling upper low
rotates around itself. Thus, uncertainty is rather high as the model
solutions really diverge with respect to the evolution of the
lingering coastal low(s). The 00z ECMWF solution now rotates
the low offshore of Long Island SW into the DelMarVa coast
Monday afternoon, albeit it`d be quite weak at that point.
Either way, some sort of low will be offshore/nearshore with
continued breezy and unsettled conditions, especially for
northern portions of the area and those at the coast. Mainly dry
wx and mostly cloudy skies are currently anticipated inland,
but this is subject to change. High temperatures range from the
mid 60s to around 70 F, with lows Monday night in the 50s.

Upper heights then build into Tuesday, forcing the sfc and upper low
offshore and away from the area. High pressure over the north-
central CONUS also begins to build SE into the Great Lakes. A
lingering shower or two is possible at the immediate coast;
otherwise, mostly dry Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies E to partly-
mostly sunny inland. Seasonably cool conditions persist, with cooler
temps E (upper 60s) and milder well inland (lower 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry and seasonable for the middle and end of next week.

The synoptic pattern heading into the middle of next week favors a
tall ridge axis to our W. This should keep sfc high pressure N and
NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. A bit milder Wednesday
with highs in the low-mid 70s, along with a return to mostly sunny
skies for the entire area. An upper trough may then dive southward
later Wednesday into Thursday of next week, bringing cooler temps by
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows follow a cooling trend through
this period starting with 50s Tuesday night and dropping to the low
40s by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

Widespread cloud cover with a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs are noted
over the area early this morning. Lower level clouds are
expected to develop and/or shift westward toward central VA and
the Piedmont over the next few hours, with MVFR CIGs at RIC by
10z or so. Some model guidance shows localized IFR CIGs as well,
but confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time.
Flight conditions further degrade to widespread MVFR later this
afternoon and then IFR tonight as a coastal low approaches the
region. Rain will also overspread the southern terminals this
afternoon and then RIC and SBY by this evening and tonight,
reducing visibility. Spotty rain or showers are also possible
earlier than the prevailing wx groups in the TAFs, so will
continue mention of this with PROB30 groups. N-NE winds of 5-10
kt this morning increase to ~10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20-25 kt near the coast this afternoon. Winds
increase further after 00z, with some potential for 30 kt gusts
at coastal terminals. Rain continues through the night.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR (mostly IFR) CIGs, elevated winds, and
moderate to heavy rain are all likely into Sunday as low
pressure persists just offshore. Degraded flying conditions
(widespread IFR CIGs) likely continue into early next week with
rain chances lingering through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Friday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local
  waters through Saturday.

- Low pressure develops south of the area tonight. While some
  uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast
  from Saturday evening into Monday. Gale Watches remain in
  effect for the Bay, rivers, sound and NC coastal waters. Storm
  Watches remain in effect for the VA-MD coastal waters.

Afternoon analysis shows 1030+mb high pressure near the New England
coast, ridging back to the SW and into the Mid-Atlantic. Low
pressure is starting to develop near Florida. Winds range from 10-15
kts across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from
roughly Cape Charles to the south. Seas follow a similar pattern
with 4-5 ft seas N and 6-8 ft from VA Beach southward. Waves in the
bay are 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft near the mouth.

The main focus continues to be the developing coastal low off the
coast of FL/GA tonight into Saturday, which will track northward
over or close to our waters Sunday into Monday. The exact evolution
of the low has finally started to come into focus with the 12z
guidance. The consensus now shows low pressure lifting up the
Carolina coast early Sunday and becoming elongated from SW to NE
during the day Sunday. This scenario results in a lengthy period of
strong NE winds across the area, ramping up early Saturday evening
with winds expected to peak across the region Sunday afternoon into
early Monday. There remains high confidence for significant marine
hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for VA-MD
Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50
kt on the VA-MD coastal waters (where a Storm Watch is in effect),
40-45 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt
in the upper tidal rivers. With the broader/elongated coastal low,
the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday
and potentially early Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing
during that period. Gale and Storm Watch headlines have been
extended into late Monday for the Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD
coastal waters. The gradient finally starts to relax by mid week
with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the
13-17 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 20-25
ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10
ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so
will the seas, but only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 415 PM EDT Friday..

The Coastal Flood Advisory was allowed to expire at 4pm after mostly
nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding along the southern Ches Bay
and adjacent portions of the VA Eastern Shore and the VA/NC coastal
waters. The high tide cycle this evening is not expected to bring
more than nuisance tidal flooding across the region. Additional
Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed in the same areas for the
Saturday morning high tide and will likely be needed for the
afternoon/evening cycle as well. Water levels are forecast to peak
only into the minor flood range on Saturday.

Later Saturday through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase, likely
to Gale force by early Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies is expected
(a surge increase of 1-2 ft in ~12 hrs). The high tide cycle
occurring late Sat night into early Sunday is the lower astro tide,
so even with a sharp increase, generally only minor flooding is
expected during this period. The following high tide, occurring
around noon Sunday along the Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere
is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event.
Widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding is expected
during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west
side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers,
as well as most locations along the Ocean. A Coastal Flood Watch has
been issued for these areas starting Sunday morning and continuing
into the afternoon or early evening. The highest probs for achieving
Major flood thresholds will be VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay
areas, as well as portions up the James river. Precise water levels
will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the associated
wind direction, but there is high confidence at seeing at least
Moderate flooding. Additional flooding is likely into Monday and
Tuesday with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though
exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for
winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low
moves away from the coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for VAZ082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for VAZ075>078-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ630-631.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-652-654-656.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday morning for ANZ633-
     658.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ650.
     Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...