355
FXUS61 KAKQ 090754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
354 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the area today into Friday with
much cooler and drier air filtering into the area. A coastal
low develops off the Southeast coast this weekend into early
next week, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and breezy
conditions for the eastern half of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cool and mainly dry weather is expected today into tonight.

Early this morning, the cold front that crossed the area yesterday
is now well south of the area. Meanwhile, ~1033 mb high pressure is
currently centered near the northern Great Lakes and will continue
to drift ESE today into tonight. There are some lingering mid and
high level clouds across far southern portions of the area,
otherwise skies are mostly clear. A steady breeze out of the N to
NNE has kept temperatures in the 50s inland and 60s across portions
of SE VA and NE NC. Winds diminish slightly as we approach sunrise,
with low temperatures expected to range from the mid 40s NW to the
upper 50s SE.

Much cooler today compared to previous days with temperatures
staying in the 60s for most of us (lower 70s possible along the
Albemarle Sound). A steady NE breeze continues into this afternoon
with winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph closer to the coast. Clouds
develop across the E/SE this afternoon with skies remaining sunny
further inland. While we don`t have any PoPs in the forecast, cannot
completely rule out a stray rain shower or sprinkle this afternoon
across SE VA and NE NC.

For tonight, high pressure settles closer to the area setting up
better radiational cooling conditions compared to this morning. It
should be noted however that winds never go completely calm inland
(and remain breezy at the immediate coast). Clouds will also
increase late in the night from the SE. As a result, temperatures
have trended a bit warmer (1 to 2 degrees) than the previous
forecast and the frost threat across the far NW has decreased. It
will still be a chilly night with lows dropping into the upper 30s
across the NW and widespread 40s for many inland areas. Closer to
the coast, lows will be in the 50s. Will let the day shift make any
final call on Frost Advisories for our far NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/cool weather continues into Friday.

- Rain chances increase throughout the day Saturday and especially
Saturday night as a potentially significant coastal system begins to
impact the region.

On Friday, strong high pressure ~1030+ mb high pressure will be
centered north of the local area over southern New England.
Meanwhile, further to the south off the coast of GA/SC, an area of
low pressure begins to develop which will gradually lift north
Friday night into Saturday. Remaining cool on Friday with similar
temperatures to what we see today (60s for most). There will be more
cloud cover compared to today with partly to mostly sunny skies
expected across the area. Not as cool Friday night with lows ranging
from the upper 40s NW to the lower 60s SE.

By Saturday, high pressure moves off the New England coast and low
pressure moves north along the SC/NC coasts. The day should start
out dry for most, but rain chances begin to increase from SE to NW
later Saturday morning and especially by Saturday afternoon/evening.
Temperatures on Saturday climb to around 70 for most of the area.
Rain increases in intensity and coverage (especially SE) as we head
into Saturday night. Total QPF through Saturday night ranges from 1-
2+" E and SE, to ~0.50" across central portions of the CWA, to ~0,l0
to 0.25" across western portions of the CWA. WPC has placed SE VA
(including Hampton Roads) and NE NC in a Day 3 Slight Risk ERO, with
a Marginal Risk extending back to roughly the I-95 corridor and up
into the southern MD Eastern Shore. It is possible that a very high
tide Saturday afternoon-night (see coastal flooding section for
specifics) may compound the fresh water flooding issues across SE VA
and NE NC by hampering drainage. Wind will also be increasing
throughout the day on Saturday, with NE winds likely gusting to 30
to 40+ mph along the immediate coast Saturday night. This is likely
to be an impactful system shaping up, with significant coastal
impacts (tidal flooding/marine) also expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- A strong coastal system continues Sunday into Monday, bringing
heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern portions of the area.

By Sunday, the low will likely be somewhere off the NC or VA coasts,
though there is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of the
low. The low eventually makes it way north, settling over or just
north of our coastal waters while slowing down/stalling on Monday.
The heavy rain threat continues into Sunday, with the threat likely
translating to NE portions of our area. WPC has placed much of the
far E/NE portions of CWA in a Day 4 Slight Risk ERO with a Marginal
Risk covering the remainder of the area. It will also be very windy
Sunday into Sunday night, with wind gusts of 45 to 55+ mph possible
along the immediate coast (25 to 35 mph inland). It is possible High
Wind Watches may be needed for eastern portions of the area if the
trends continue. Rain chances begin to diminish somewhat/become
focused NE Sunday night into Monday. As for total QPF, 00z GEFS
and EPS still show a stripe of 1 to 3" of QPF across eastern
portions of the area, with the NBM 90th showing upwards of 4 to
6+". Conditions should gradually improve Tuesday and beyond as
the low weakens/moves offshore and high pressure begins to
build back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly clear for most of the area (FEW to SCT at ORF and
ECG) with dry/VFR conditions. N to NNE winds remain gusty along
the immediate coast with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots
continuing. FEW to SCT (BKN across the SE) CU with bases ~4000
to 5000 ft develops later this morning into the early afternoon.
NE winds remain breezy at the eastern terminals through this
afternoon with gusts of 20+ knots possible. Dry/VFR conditions
continue into tonight.

Outlook: Clouds gradually thicken and lower on Friday, but
remaining VFR at all sites into Friday night. Sub-VFR CIGs,
elevated winds, and moderate to heavy rain are likely as we head
into Saturday as low pressure develops offshore. Periods of
sub-VFR conditions likely continue through the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the
  local waters through Saturday.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  some uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are
  forecast from Saturday evening into early next week. Storm and
  Gale Watches have been issued.

Yesterday`s cold front is now well S of the local waters this
morning. In it`s wake, the center of strong high pressure is located
over the Great Lakes region, which is building down toward the local
area. A compressed pressure gradient and ongoing cold/dry advection
is leading to elevated N-NE winds. Wind speeds as of 2 AM are
averaging 20-25 kt on the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters, with
gusts up to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of
the local waters. Through this morning, NE flow continues and
remains around 15-25 kt for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. A
reprieve in the winds is possible by this afternoon, but an
additional surge of cooler air should bring another increase in
winds this evening into early tonight. Winds again decrease Friday
into the first part of Saturday, but the forecast retains 15-20 kt
winds in the southern waters through Saturday.

The main focus in the forecast period is the developing coastal low
Saturday, which will track northward over or close to our waters
Sunday into Monday. The exact evolution of the low remains of low to
moderate confidence at this point, but there is high confidence in
significant marine hazards, including high winds (potentially to
Storm force) and dangerous seas. NE winds increase considerably
later Saturday into Saturday night, with the peak in the winds
Sunday into early Monday as the low makes its closest approach to
the area and begins to occlude. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt
on the coastal waters, 40-45 kt in the Chesapeake Bay, and 35-40 kt
in the upper tidal rivers. Although this event remains a bit beyond
the typical time line for headlines, have decided to issue Gale and
Storm Watches in collaboration with our neighboring offices, with
the intent of bringing attention to the dangerous marine threat
potential. Storm Watches are in effect for the coastal waters from
22z Sat-11z Mon, with Gale Watches elsewhere for the same timeframe.
There may also be several low centers embedded within the larger
circulation, with some of these centers potentially rotating back
westward to the coast Monday. Therefore, the initially NE wind
direction could become N-NNW Monday morning and then NW Monday
afternoon. Uncertainty is high into Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week, but a gradual decrease in winds and seas is expected by then.
Seas are forecasted to peak in the 13-17 ft range, with higher
values not out of the realm of possibility. Waves in the Chesapeake
Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the
bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only
gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday..

Given the high astronomical tides and moderately strong NE
winds, nuisance to minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent
to the lower Ches Bay, Currituck Outer Banks, and the tidal
York/James later today and Friday. A Coastal Flood Advisory has
is in effect for the Currituck Outer Banks this morning (given
higher confidence in reaching minor flood stage) with Coastal
Flood Statements for the Lower James River and mouth of the Ches
Bay (given lower confidence in exceeding minor flood stage).
Given that this afternoon`s high tide is the lower of the astro
tides, will handle Friday morning`s high tides separately with
another round of Coastal Flood Statements or Advisories, if
necessary.

Tidal anomalies increase quickly late Saturday through Sunday
with widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding
possible by Sunday. The highest confidence is across the Ches
Bay (especially the lower bay) and across locations adjacent to
the ocean. Water levels will be highly dependent on the track
of the low and the associated wind direction. At this time, the
high tide cycle in the late morning-early afternoon of Sunday
looks to be the most problematic, though additional flooding is
possible beyond then. The ETSS remains on the very high end of
the guidance envelope (depicting major to near-record flood
levels), with the probabilistic distribution in the P-ETSS a
bit more realistic, though the 50% percentile output appears a
bit too low in the lower bay locations. Major flooding is
forecast from Duck northward into the lower Ches Bay, including
at Lynnhaven and Sewell`s Point. Major flooding is also forecast
in the tidal James and York, including at Smithfield,
Jamestown, and Yorktown. Elsewhere, the wind direction should
favor primarily minor to moderate flooding, though this is a
very fluid forecast and subject to change based on the track of
the low. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, but
they almost certainly will be needed eventually.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ630>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638-650-652-
     654.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...