


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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530 FXUS61 KAKQ 102356 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 756 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains north of the area today with dry and sensible weather. A coastal low develops off the Southeast coast later today into Saturday, tracking north toward the area Saturday night and Sunday. Heavy rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are likely near the coast. The low lingers just offshore into early next week, finally moving away by Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 755 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Mainly dry through tonight under overcast skies with lows in the upper 40s NW to the mid 60s SE. Sfc high pressure was located off the coast of New England this evening. Well to the S, low pressure was starting to spin up off the coast of FL, resulting in a subtle coastal trough along the SE coast. Aloft, an upper level low was located near the Great Lakes with a trough across the Southeast. Mid and high level clouds have moved in over the FA and will linger through tonight. Additionally, a few light sprinkles/drizzle was noted on radar across far SE VA/NE NC. This convection is expected to dissipate over the next few hours with mostly dry conditions continuing through the night. However, there is a low-end potential to see a few additional sprinkles by the early morning (across far SE VA/NE NC) as the northern edge of the rain shield from the low inches closer. Given the widespread cloud cover, lows tonight are expected to be mild with temps in the upper 40s across the far NW (given the potential for a few breaks in the cloud cover), mid 50 across the I-95 corridor, and low-mid 60s across far SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - A potentially significant coastal low impacts the region Saturday into early next week, bringing rain, wind, and coastal flooding hazards. Confidence remains on the lower side given diverging model solutions, but areas near the coast continue to have the highest chances of seeing impacts. Degraded conditions are expected Saturday into Monday as the FA starts seeing impacts of the brewing coastal storm. The trend from the 12z suite of models has been for slower progression of the low. Have been leaning on the GEFS and the Euro Ens since there is more agreement between those two compared to the deterministic models. This would place the sfc low off the Carolina coast by late Saturday night, then slowly traveling NE from there into Monday. Sat morning will probably be dry for most people, but isolated to scattered light showers will be possible primarily E of I-95 (~30% PoP). Precip then increases in the afternoon into the evening, especially in the SE where PoPs jump up to 60%+. Precip then spreads across the area later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thinking that this could be the time period when the bulk of the rain falls. Highest PoPs are E of I-95 (80%+), but the entire area has Likely PoPs. Going into Sunday evening and overnight, the focus will shift to the NE. Should see a slow tapering of rain from SW to NE Mon as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW and an UL ridge slides east; showers could linger for NE counties into Monday night. Did have to increase the QPF a touch to accommodate the slower progression of the low. Latest thinking puts a strip of 2-3" right along the coast, 1.5-2" elsewhere E of I-95, then tapering down to ~0.7" between I-95 and the western edge of the FA. This lines up pretty well with both the GEFS and Euro Ens. It is not outside the realm of possibility, though, for localized areas of 3-4" close to the coast. There is the potential for a few instances of flooding along the coast (in addition to tidal flooding, see section below), which is highlighted by the Days 2 and 3 ERO from the WPC. The other concern for this period is elevated onshore winds. NE winds will steadily increase Sat and Sun, peaking sometime Sunday afternoon/evening. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible along the coast and Bay Saturday evening though Saturday night (gusts to 50mph along the immediate coast) and 20-30mph further inland. Wind gusts of 50+mph will be possible along the immediate MD/VA Eastern Shore coast Sunday. Remaining rather breezy on Monday once winds switch to the NW but less so than Sunday. For temperatures, highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected Saturday, with cooler temps in the mid-upper 60s areawide Sunday. Overnight lows should be around 60 F Saturday night and in the 50s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Slowly drying out Tuesday and especially by the middle and end of next week. Could see some lingering showers on the backside of the low near the coast on Tuesday, but otherwise expecting improving conditions. The sfc low and associated UL trough will be sliding offshore while another area of high pressure builds in from the NW and an UL ridge sets up W of the FA. This pattern more or less persists into the late week period. Mostly cloudy skies Tues will yield to mostly clear skies Wed and Thurs. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tues and Wed. Could be a bit cooler Thurs, but only by a few degrees. Overnight lows follow a cooling trend through this period starting with 50s Tue night and dropping to the mid 40s by Thurs night. Remaining fairly breezy Tues with northerly gusts to around 20mph. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Friday... Widespread cloud cover lingers across the area through the 00z taf period with a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs expected. An area of MVFR CIGs (~2500 ft CIGs) was noted over ORF/PHF/ECG this evening. This batch of cloud cover may produce a brief sprinkle/drizzle over the next couple of hours before dissipating. However, confidence in MVFR VIS was too low to reflect in the tafs. The area of MVFR CIGs is expected to push inland overnight, potentially impacting RIC by ~11-12z. As it moves inland, models show CIGs improving to VFR along the coast. As such, have opted for TEMPOs for the MVFR CIGs at ORF/PHF/ECG through 4z Sat. MVFR CIGs linger at RIC and ECG through the day on Sat (after 11-13z), spreading to ORF/PHF by late afternoon. There is low confidence in the POP forecast through 21z Sat with a few light showers possible across all area terminals prior to 21z Sat. However, given the low confidence, have opted for PROB30s to account for the earlier rain chances with prevailing rain later in the day Sat as the main area of rain moves N. Winds were NE ~5 kt inland and ~10 kt at ECG/ORF this evening. Winds increase to ~10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt near the coast Sat. Outlook: MVFR/IFR (mostly IFR) CIGs, elevated winds, and moderate to heavy rain are all likely as we head into Saturday night through Sun as low pressure develops offshore. Degraded flying conditions (widespread IFR CIGs) likely continue into early next week with rain chances lingering through Mon. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Friday.. Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local waters through Saturday. - Low pressure develops south of the area tonight. While some uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast from Saturday evening into Monday. Gale Watches remain in effect for the Bay, rivers, sound and NC coastal waters. Storm Watches remain in effect for the VA-MD coastal waters. Afternoon analysis shows 1030+mb high pressure near the New England coast, ridging back to the SW and into the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure is starting to develop near Florida. Winds range from 10-15 kts across the northern Ches Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from roughly Cape Charles to the south. Seas follow a similar pattern with 4-5 ft seas N and 6-8 ft from VA Beach southward. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft near the mouth. The main focus continues to be the developing coastal low off the coast of FL/GA tonight into Saturday, which will track northward over or close to our waters Sunday into Monday. The exact evolution of the low has finally started to come into focus with the 12z guidance. The consensus now shows low pressure lifting up the Carolina coast early Sunday and becoming elongated from SW to NE during the day Sunday. This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area, ramping up early Saturday evening with winds expected to peak across the region Sunday afternoon into early Monday. There remains high confidence for significant marine hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for VA-MD Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt on the VA-MD coastal waters (where a Storm Watch is in effect), 40-45 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially early Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing during that period. Gale and Storm Watch headlines have been extended into late Monday for the Chesapeake Bay and the VA/MD coastal waters. The gradient finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 13-17 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to 20-25 ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 415 PM EDT Friday.. The Coastal Flood Advisory was allowed to expire at 4pm after mostly nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding along the southern Ches Bay and adjacent portions of the VA Eastern Shore and the VA/NC coastal waters. The high tide cycle this evening is not expected to bring more than nuisance tidal flooding across the region. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed in the same areas for the Saturday morning high tide and will likely be needed for the afternoon/evening cycle as well. Water levels are forecast to peak only into the minor flood range on Saturday. Later Saturday through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase, likely to Gale force by early Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies is expected (a surge increase of 1-2 ft in ~12 hrs). The high tide cycle occurring late Sat night into early Sunday is the lower astro tide, so even with a sharp increase, generally only minor flooding is expected during this period. The following high tide, occurring around noon Sunday along the Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with this event. Widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations along the Ocean. A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for these areas starting Sunday morning and continuing into the afternoon or early evening. The highest probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James river. Precise water levels will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the associated wind direction, but there is high confidence at seeing at least Moderate flooding. Additional flooding is likely into Monday and Tuesday with the slower progression of coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for VAZ082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for VAZ075>078-521-522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for ANZ633-658. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening for ANZ650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...AC/RMM SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...RMM MARINE...LKB/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...