445
FXUS61 KAKQ 161108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through
Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid
conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage
expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an
increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a
weak front drops into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- An unsettled pattern continues today but with less coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms.

GOES water vapor channels depict upper ridging building into
the Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a shortwave trough that is now
offshore, which was responsible (when combined with deep rich
moisture) for showers/tstms with heavy rain later Sunday into
Sunday night and Monday. There is still potentially a subtle
boundary lingering over central VA early this morning. Warm and
humid with temperatures/dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, with
some patchy fog over the Piedmont.

A (convectively induced) shortwave trough lifts NW of the
region today across WV/western PA with the upper ridge axis in
vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, PW values remain
>2" (130-140% of normal). Showers/tstms should develop across
the higher terrain, with the general consensus amongst the CAMs
to dip this activity SE toward central VA and SE MD by later
this aftn and evening, with some earlier development along the
western shore of the Ches. Bay and SE VA. Convective coverage
should be less than yesterday. However, there are many areas
vulnerable to heavy rain and the northern half of the area in in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. An isolated strong tstm
is possible across the NW counties with a marginal severe risk
(for damaging wind gusts) on the `doorstep` of the local area.
Seasonally hot and quite humid with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 100F. Any lingering showers/tstms should dissipate later
this evening. Otherwise, warm and humid with lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat and humidity build Thursday and Friday with Heat
  Advisories possible.

The upper flow becomes westerly Thursday with 850mb
temperatures rising to 19-21C. This should support highs in the
lower to mid 90s, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s during
peak heating due to recent wet conditions. This should yield
heat indices in the 100-105F range W to 105+F E. Heat advisories
will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area,
especially along and E of the I-95 corridor. A shortwave trough
slides across the northern Mid- Atlantic later Thursday
afternoon, and this could trigger a few showers/tstms across the
northern tier of the area. There will be a little more shear
Thursday, so any tstms could become more organized and pose at
least a marginal severe threat. Warm and humid Thursday night
with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

A more substantial trough and cold front push from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. A milder and
drier airmass will remain well N of the region, but the
associated cold front is progged to drop into the local area
Friday. This will interact with an airmass with PW values >2"
and mid 70s surface dewpoints. Therefore, increased coverage of
showers/tstms is possible by Friday. The primary threats will be
locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts as 30-35kt of
500mb flow could result in better storm organization. Continued
hot and humid, with 105+F heat indices forecast across SE VA
and NE NC where heat advisories may eventually be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into
  early next week with daily chances of showers and
  thunderstorms.

The weekend into early next week will generally feature an
upper ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with
disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the
ridge. The front is expected to linger over the region Saturday
allowing for afternoon/evening showers/tstms. The front may lift
NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter
temperatures and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled
with scattered convection into early next week. Seasonally hot
and humid early next week, but the 16/00z EPS/GEFS each
retrograde the ridge to the west as lower 500mb heights develop
over New England and Atlantic Canada, which could generally
result in highs in the mid/upper 80s to near 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 11z.
Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at
and around RIC. The wind is light out of the SSW. LIFR stratus
lingers at RIC and that should lift to MVFR by 12-13z. Any MVFR
cigs after 12z, mainly for RIC, SBY, and PHF are expected to
lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again
Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days.
Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but
ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to
20kt this aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish this evening, with
mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night.

Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm
coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday
as another front drops into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake
  Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday
  morning.

- Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before
  benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend.

SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda
high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be
10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon
and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as
the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of
the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across
the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1
PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal
waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for
headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but
these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should
gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon.
However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and
lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the
SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe.
Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before
winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through
most of the weekend.

Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight
through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft
tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4
ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft
from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model
data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today.
The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later
afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the
surf forecast for now.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger
wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 705 AM EDT Wednesday...

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above
Farmville through early this afternoon. Minor flooding is
forecast and is expected to crest this morning. Additionally,
Lawrenceville may touch minor flood later this morning.


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...AKQ