530
FXUS61 KAKQ 020208
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1008 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches late this week with slightly warmer
temperatures and a chance for showers. A stronger cold front
crosses the area late Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Another night in the 50s away from the coast with diminishing
  winds.

Evening wx analysis shows sfc high pressure centered over
interior New England, ridging south toward the area. Deep
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS, with an upper
low positioned near the Mason-Dixon line. Most of the cloudiness
from earlier has diminished, with mainly clear skies this
evening. With diminishing winds away from the coast,
temperatures are again falling rather quickly, with low-mid 60s
inland as of 830 PM (even a few upper 50s across the NW). It`s
in the upper 60s to around 60 near the coast. Low temps fall
back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few
spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be
light with less cloud cover expected away from the coast.
Lastly, some guidance suggests some stratocumulus moving onshore
along the coast late tonight. This could also keep these areas a
few degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday
  as high pressure moves offshore. There is a slight chance for
  showers near the coast on Tuesday, but confidence is low.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible late Thursday, mainly
  across north and northwest portions of the area.

The pleasant wx continues on Tuesday. Will note that a slightly more
moist maritime airmass tries to push inland from the ocean, but
likely struggles to make it much past the bay. There will be a weak,
but noticeable gradient in theta-e across the area as a result.
While Tuesday will be very similar to today in terms of
temperatures, isolated showers are possible near the bay/coast. CAMs
(especially the HRRR which has a few pockets of 0.50" QPFs) have
trended upward a bit in terms of shower coverage tomorrow. Not that
confident that we`ll actually see much of any precip, but added 20%
PoPs to the forecast near the bay/coast to account for the
possibility. Precip chances drop to near zero by sunset. Not quite
as cool Tuesday night with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure shifts offshore and
winds swing around to the E-SE. Afternoon highs are expected to
mainly be in the low 80s with dew points in the mid 50s to lower
60s. 12z guidance remains in good agreement keeping the entire area
dry Wednesday/Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight
lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low
60s. Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes drags a cold front
toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger
showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs
of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south.
Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the
eastern shore) with a modest increase in humidity as dew points
creep back into the low and mid 60s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with
  highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

- There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday/Monday.

The chance for showers increases Thursday night, especially across
the northern half of the area as the weakening front pushes toward
the FA. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to
perhaps a quarter inch of precip. There is very high confidence that
the initial front washes out across the region with winds remaining
S or SW into Saturday. As such, not expecting an airmass change or
even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs
are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew
points. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the period ahead of
a stronger front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs
range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture
looks to be lacking with this front as well, but there is a slight
chc for tstms Saturday aftn-late Saturday evening (highest E/SE).
The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a
return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions this evening as most of the earlier cloud cover
has diminished. However, a few patches of low-level CU remain,
especially near the coast. Then, a lower confidence forecast
tonight into early Tuesday morning with some guidance suggesting
MVFR stratocumulus near the coast after 06z or so. For now,
will depict the coverage as SCT at SBY/ORF/PHF, but could be
locally BKN. After sunrise, Tuesday will be similar to today
(Monday) with SCT- BKN cumulus from late morning- early evening.
There is also a 20-30% chc of showers at SBY/ORF/PHF after 12z,
but will confine mention (as VCSH) to SBY for now given
slightly higher PoPs and confidence there. NE winds diminish to
5-8 kt tonight with lighter NE winds (8-12 kt) expected on
Tuesday.

Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for
isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at
RIC/SBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the
  coastal waters into Tuesday.

- A period of elevated southerly winds is possible late Thursday afternoon
  into early Thursday night across the Chesapeake Bay and
  northern coastal waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
  possible.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues into Tuesday across the southern
  beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches.

Have extended the SCAs for the coastal waters from Chincoteague
S to to CApe Charles Light through 1 AM as seas have lingered at
4-5 ft this evening. Otherwise no changes, allowing the SCAs to
end for the mouth of the Bay and Currituck sound with winds generally
dropping off to 10-15 kt as the pressure gradient between sfc high
pressure centered to the N of the region, and a sfc trough offshore
slowly relaxes (And will continue to do so through the day Tuesday).

High pressure remains in place through Wednesday, slowly building
south with time. Winds remain light through early Thursday
before becoming SE/S and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to
25 kt late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across mainly
the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters ahead of an
approaching cold front. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds
were 45-65% across most of the Ches Bay and northern coastal
waters with locally up to 80% probs across the upper bay. As
such, SCAs may be needed for this surge. Will note that elevated
winds will also overspread the rivers, however, confidence in
SCA conditions over the rivers is lower than over the Ches Bay.
Otherwise, winds remain generally sub-SCA through next weekend
with a brief S surge to 15- 20 kt possible Fri evening. A series
of weak cold fronts approach the local waters late this week
into this weekend with the strongest front crossing the local
waters Saturday night. Winds shift to N Saturday night, becoming
NE Monday. A period of elevated NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt is possible Mon across the southern coastal waters,
however, confidence is low at this time.

Waves subside to 1- 2 ft Tuesday with 2-3 ft at the mouth of
the Ches Bay. Meanwhile, seas subside to ~4 ft Tue (apart from
4-5 ft across the NC coastal waters), likely remaining sub- SCA
through next weekend.

The rip current risk remains High for the southern beaches through
Wed with a Moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches.
Will note that the high rip current risk across the southern beaches
on Wednesday is more marginal than today and Tuesday. Otherwise, a
Moderate rip current risk is expected across all area beaches on
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average
Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below:

- RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992.
- SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008.
- ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RMM
CLIMATE...