609
FXUS61 KAKQ 100051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
751 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the region tonight,
bringing chances for rain showers. Much colder temperatures
arrive Monday and especially Tuesday with widespread below
freezing temperatures expected Tuesday morning. Dry with
seasonable temperatures expected Wednesday through Saturday
with high pressure in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms this evening,
  shifting to the coast after midnight.

- Turning much cooler with winds shifting to the NW in the wake
  of the strong cold front.

The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper trough across
the western Great Lakes, with the base of the trough extending
well south all the way to the Gulf coast. At the surface, low
pressure is passing through the local area, with a strong cold
front now entering the piedmont counties. A fair amount of
shower activity with embedded tstms has developed along the
front, with likely PoPs for the next few hrs over most of the
piedmont and into metro RIC. It remains dry to the SE. As the
front slows down later this evening and overnight (as the upper
trough starts to become negatively tilted and drops to the S).
This will allow some Atlantic moisture to move northward along
the front overnight. As such, while areas along/west of I-95
will only have slight chances of rain after late evening, areas
east of I-95 and especially closer to the coast will see
increasing shower activity after midnight and continuing through
sunrise despite the front being offshore. It will become much
colder tonight, but all places should remain well above
freezing. Lowest temps will be in the Piedmont with upper 30s
expected while areas close to the coast will drop to the upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Much cooler Monday. A Freeze Warning now in effect for Monday
  Night with widespread below freezing temperatures expected.

- A few flurries or light snow showers possible Monday Night.

Behind the front it will be cold and breezy with temperatures likely
staying in the low-mid 50s. The main upper trough will pass over the
area on Monday night bringing very steep low-mid level lapse rates
as well as some mid level moisture and weak lift. This may allow for
some light precipitation to fall across the northern tier Monday
evening, then further SE overnight. However, am expected this
precipitation to be very light (perhaps mostly virga) as there is
significant dry air forecast in the lowest 100 MB of the atmosphere
as noted in the inverted V sounding across much of the area due to
the strong NW low level flow off the mountains. However, if
precipitation does fall, it could be a light rain/snow mix or
perhaps all snow later on in the night as the temperatures at the
sfc and aloft cool. No accumulation is expected due to the light
nature of the precipitation, but some places will likely see some
early season snow flakes on Monday night. Expect a widespread hard
freeze across the area, perhaps even to the beaches. There is about
a 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 28F in many
locations away from the immediate coast Monday night. As such, will
upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning with this issuance.
This upper trough and very cold air will allow for deep mixing, even
over the land. Gusty winds are expected through the night across the
region. This will allow for very low wind chills for this time of
year across the area. Certainly wind chills in the lower 20s can be
expected with some wind chills in the teens. In fact, the 25th
percentile Wind Chill from the NBM Tuesday morning is in the teens
throughout the area. Not close to cold weather advisory criteria,
but nonetheless a very cold airmass for this time of year.

Dry on Tuesday but very cold and breezy with temperatures likely not
rising out of the 40s. Continued dry on Wednesday but warmer with
temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle to end
  of next week.

Temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions expected Thursday
through next Sunday. Upper heights gradually start to build across
the region as the sharp trough early in the week moves northeast and
becomes closed off over the Canadian Maritimes while a ridge builds
over the middle of the country. This will keep the Middle Atlantic
mostly dry through the extended period, although there is a small
chance for rain next Sunday depending on how quickly the next trough
approaches the area. Thursday will likely be the coolest day in the
extended with about a 40% probability of rising above 60F in the SW
and less than 10% in MD. By Sunday, these probabilities rise to 60-
90% with the probability of 70+ as high as 30% in the SW part of the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Sunday...

Mainly VFR, but with brief MVFR to IFR is showers/tstms possible
at RIC, and in low stratus at SBY. A brief period with gusty NW
winds with the FROPA is expected between 02-06Z from W to E. As
the front approaches the coast, additional shower activity is
expected as some moisture is picked up from the Atlantic and a
weak area of low pressure develops along the front. MVFR CIGs
are expected after ~06Z at PHF/ORF/ECG. VFR conditions expected
Monday although NW winds will gust to 15 to 20 kt at times
especially in the afternoon.

Outlook: There is a slight chc of light rain and/or snow showers
Monday night with an upper level system, but conditions should
remain VFR. VFR/dry Tuesday through Thursday with breezy conditions
during the aftn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 750 PM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the waters tonight, with elevated
  winds and seas expected into the middle of the week. Small
  Craft Advisories have been issued starting tonight.

- Gale watches have been issued for the coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound Monday night into Tuesday.

Latest surface analysis depicted a cold front approaching from
the west with scattered showers and storms along it. Winds
across the local waters were generally S ~10 kt this evening.
Seas were 2-3ft this evening and waves were 1-2ft. The front
looks like it will cross local waters between 11 PM and 1 AM
tonight. Gusty showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
front. Behind it, winds will abruptly shift to the NW and
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay
and coastal waters through Monday. Additionally, the HRRR
continues to suggest a brief period of gusts up to 34 kt
immediately behind the cold front for around an hour or so
tonight. As such, have started the SCAs at 10 PM this evening
across the Ches Bay and will handle any potential gusts up to 34
kt with an SMW. Confidence is lower in frequent gusts up to 25
kt across the coastal waters tonight into Monday. As such, have
left the start times for the SCAs across the coastal waters the
same (4 PM Mon across the N coastal waters and 7 PM Mon across
the S coastal waters). Additionally, have kept the start times
for the SCAs for the lower James River and Currituck Sound the
same as well given low confidence in frequent gusts up to 20 kt
tonight into Mon. Finally, have issued SCAs for the upper rivers
starting at 7 PM Tue.

Late Monday night is when the CAA will really ramp up. Given the
degree of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over
still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear increasingly
likely Monday night into Tuesday - at least for the coastal waters.
WNW winds increase to 25-30kt (20-25kt in the rivers) after midnight
Monday night/Tuesday morning with gusts 30-35 in the bay and rivers
and up to 40kt over coastal waters. Local wind probs depict upward
of 95% probs for 34kt+ wind gusts while probs for the bay have
dropped off to almost none.  Decided to maintain the Gale Watches as
they are for this forecast cycle since it is more marginal in nature
and we are still over 24 hours out from onset. Winds diminish down
to 20-25kt Tues evening and Tues night as they turn to the SW.
Elevated west winds continue through Wed and into Thurs before
finally dropping below SCA thresholds Thur evening/night.

Seas increase to 4-5ft early Monday night, then again to 4-6ft by
Tuesday afternoon. Offshore wind direction should keep highest seas
closer to 20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in
the bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ633-656-658.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...LKB/MRD
MARINE...AC/RMM