607
FXUS61 KAKQ 280005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
805 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will shift slowly northward tonight. As
this front lifts north away from the area, expect daily diurnal
rain chances Saturday through early next week. Well above normal
temperatures will continue through next week, with a possible
frontal passage early/mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

- Heat Advisory for NC counties has been cancelled.

- Scattered showers may redevelop tonight but coverage is
  expected to be isolated and mainly across the Piedmont.

The backdoor front continues to linger near the US-460 corridor
this evening. A few storms were able to form to the south of the
boundary this afternoon but have largely dissipated this evening
as the reservoir of greater instability was shunted to the
southwest into NC. Hi-res guidance has backed off considerably
with respect to further showers and storms this evening into the
overnight. Have adjust PoPs downward and focused coverage
across the Piedmont, but even here, coverage is expected to be
rather sparse. The front is progged to slowly lift north tonight
but lingering low stratus clouds will likely hang on for most
of the night for areas north of 460. Guidance shows some
clearing may spread northward into the Norfolk Metro by mid
evening into the overnight. Regardless, remaining mild and muggy
tonight with dew points well into the 70s across the region.
Overnight low temps fall into the low 70s for most of the area
with mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast. Some fog is
possible tonight for the northern half of the area, especially
the MD Eastern Shore where visibility potentially drops below
1/2 mile. A Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory may
become necessary for portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heat continues along with a somewhat unsettled pattern with
  daily, diurnal isolated storms possible.

The backdoor front will lift back N on Sat. Meanwhile, the UL ridge
flattens out and flow becomes more or less zonal over the local
area. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Sat, but
without the front nearby and the weak flow aloft, coverage will
likely be a lot lighter than even the last few days. Isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday
afternoon. Temps return to the 90s both Sat and Sun. Heat indices
for tomorrow generally fall into the 100-103 range, so will hold off
on any Heat Advisories. Sun looks a couple of degrees warmer, so
could potentially see another round of advisories in the SE for heat
indices in the 105-107 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week, with chance of
  afternoon thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

- Possible frontal passage Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Slightly above average temps continue into early next week with
highs in the low to mid 90s Mon and Tues. Most of the area will
likely stay under 103 for heat indices, though could locally be
higher. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, with
moisture pooling ahead of it and PWs approaching 2.0"+ early
next week which may result in a heavy rain threat with any
diurnally driven convective activity. Steering flow does pick up
some by early next week, which will hopefully help with the
flooding threat. As the front moves through Tuesday afternoon
into early Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible ahead of and along the boundary. The front does not
look terribly strong, but Wed should be a few degrees cooler and
dewpoints should drop a few degrees as well. Current forecast
has heat indices in the low 90s, which will be a relief compared
to the prolonged 100+. A secondary front is progged to push
through Thursday morning which could potentially bring dew
points down into the upper 60s by late next week, making for an
almost comfortable environment in comparison to this past weeks
heat wave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

Complex aviation forecast this evening and tonight with a weak
front lingering across the area, which is expected to lift
slowly northward tonight into Saturday morning. IFR/LIFR
conditions remain in place across the northern third of the area
with a region of MVFR CIGs extending from Farmville eastward to
RIC/PHF/ORF. VFR conditions prevail to the south including ECG.
Guidance is quite variable for tonight but conditions look
solidly LIFR at SBY and VFR at ECG. In between, went with a mix
of IFR and MVFR with RIC expected to see IFR CIGs returning by
late this evening, lingering into the early daylight hours of
Saturday. Similar conditions are expected at PHF, which tends to
verify IFR more often than guidance would suggest. ORF has been
bouncing between MVFR and IFR CIGs early this evening so have
included a TEMPO group through 02z with MVFR prevailing into the
early overnight. Went VFR thereafter at ORF which may be
optimistic. A brief period of MVFR is again possible near
sunrise. Winds are generally light and variable tonight,
becoming SW 5-10 on Saturday. Convective coverage is expected to
be more isolated than previous days but some showers and storms
are possible late afternoon into the evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are primarily expected into next week
as the front lifts back north. However, late afternoon/evening
storms are possible every day into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 805 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been issued for the northern Coastal Waters this
  evening due to elevated seas.

- A marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through early
  Saturday morning across the Maryland coastal waters.

- Generally benign marine conditions Saturday-Monday (outside of convection),
  with SCA conditions possible Tuesday/early Wednesday in
  association with a stronger cold front.

The latest analysis indicates ~1008mb low pressure across upper
Michigan and southern Ontario. A wavy frontal boundary extends E-SE
across the interior northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Seasonally cool
1026+mb high pressure remains across coastal New England, and as it
builds south, is nudging the front farther south into the local
waters. As of this writing, Winds are E-NE at behind the
boundary over the Bay, eastern VA rivers and the coastal waters
north of the VA/NC border. Winds north of the boundary were
still averaging 10-15 with gusts to ~20 kt. Farther south across
the far southern waters into the Carolinas, winds were light
out of the E-SE ~5-10 kt. Seas across the northern coastal
waters from Fenwick Island, DE to Chincoteague, VA have
increased to 4-5 ft. As such, SCAs have been issued for this
marine zone through 10 PM. Seas lower to 2-3 ft south of
Parramore Island. Waves were 1-2 ft. Additionally, areas of
marine dense fog were noted across the MD beaches on cameras and
mesonets. Model guidance suggests this fog lingers to around 4
AM (potentially longer). As such, have issued a marine Dense Fog
Advisory for the MD coastal waters through 4 AM. This may need
to be extended temporally.

Still expect the high to stop its southern progress this afternoon,
allowing the front to stall briefly over the region into this
evening, then lifting back north as a warm front tonight as the high
lifts out into the north Atlantic. This should result in winds
veering around to the SSE tonight, then SSW and eventually NW
overnight. Winds remain SSW Saturday, averaging around 10-15
kt. NWPS indicates some 5-7 second wave periods developing
tomorrow, a combination of E-NE swell and some wind waves. The
developing choppy seas should help to keep seas elevated a bit,
though again remaining below SCA thresholds at ~3-4 ft. Some SSW
channeling winds in the lower James and lower bay could bring
some gusts to 20 kt tomorrow afternoon into early Sat evening,
but with winds still likely to remain below SCA thresholds, will
hold off with any SCA for now.

The previously referenced upper Great Lakes low swings across New
England tomorrow night into Sunday, dropping another weak boundary
across the northern waters Sunday morning. This should act to
briefly turning winds to the NW late tomorrow night into Sunday,
with winds turning onshore by aftn before again turning back SSW
Sunday night as the low lifts out and takes the front with it. The
next system approaches for late Monday night/Tuesday. The gradient
with ahead of that next slightly stronger front tightens a little
bit more such that some low-end SCAs will be possible for the
Bay/rivers Monday night into Tuesday morning, before that front
washes out over the local area later Tuesday through midweek.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place for Saturday over the
northern waters, with Low Rip Risk through the weekend over southern
waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow has allowed for a few strong flood tides in a row
since late last night`s tide cycle. This has allowed for more
water pushing into the Chesapeake Bay, with elevated tide cycles
that remain below any minor thresholds in the lower bay. As
winds turn around to the S this evening, expecting that water to
push up the bay toward coastal communities on the Bay side of
the lower MD eastern shore, resulting in increasing tidal
departures and some tide levels reaching to nuisance or near-
minor water levels within a few hours of high tide on the MD
Eastern Shore. Due to the narrow area impacted, the progressive
nature of the event, and the lowering astronomical tide given
the recent new moon, will go with a Coastal Flood Statement for
Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset Counties.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...