651
FXUS61 KAKQ 071919
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
319 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue today before a strong
cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This will bring scattered
showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures arrive late this week
behind the cold front. A coastal low may develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend, potentially resulting in rain and breezy
conditions for a portion of the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers move into western and northwestern
  portions of the area tonight, progressing south/southeast
  through tomorrow evening.

- Lows tonight in the mid 60s. Highs tomorrow in the 70s.

High pressure has been pushed offshore by an approaching cold front,
which was located over the OH valley as of latest analysis.
Conditions outside are fairly pleasant with temps in the low 80s
under partly sunny skies. It is starting to get a little breezy
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front with a few
southerly wind gusts up to ~20mph observed.

As the front approaches tonight, will see cloud cover increasing from
NW to SE. Also expecting scattered showers starting tonight in
association with the front. Precip will be generally confined to
northwestern areas through the first part of tonight, then gradually
expanding in coverage and sliding SE late tonight into tomorrow.
Models indicate that precip should be focused mostly on eastern
portions of the area tomorrow morning with showers most widespread
on the Eastern Shore. Scattered showers then shift to the S/SE as
the front starts to move offshore tomorrow afternoon/evening. Could
see a few rumbles of thunder in the SE as well. Regarding QPF, did
see a downward trend for central VA with the 12z models. Now
anticipating 0.1-0.2" or less. The MD Eastern Shore looks to get the
most with QPF values between 0.5-0.75". The 12z HREF did key in on
this area with low end probs for an inch of rain, so could certainly
see some isolated spots of an inch or so. Other eastern counties
have a QPF range of 0.25-0.5". Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 70s across the north and mid-
upper 70s across the south, as high as the low 80s near the
Albemarle Sound.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday, with 30s across our NW
counties Thursday night/Friday AM.

Will see clearing skies and gusty north winds behind the front Wed
night into Thurs. Strong high pressure from the NW returns as an UL
trough swings into the Mid-Atlantic. Lows Wed night will be in the
mid to upper 40s N and W of Richmond and ranging through the 50s
elsewhere. Much cooler Thurs with highs only in the mid to upper
60s. Northeast winds will be elevated Thurs afternoon with gusts up
to 30mph at the SE coast, 20-25mph elsewhere. Chilly temps then
expected Thurs night. Lows will be as cold as the upper 30s in the
far NW, ranging through the 40s for other inland areas, and in the
50s in the SE/near the coast. Some of the statistical guidance did
suggest temps as low as the mid 30s in the NW, which cannot be ruled
out given decent radiational cooling conditions. Will need to
keep an eye on this time frame for potential Frost Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain and
  breezy conditions to the area.

Cool, dry conditions continue Friday as the center of the strong
high slides through New England and offshore. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s again and still a little breezy with onshore winds.
Uncertainty increases going into the weekend as a coastal low is
introduced off the Carolina coast. At this point, there is decent
confidence in the low forming and the general location of formation,
but details on impacts are still fuzzy. There is certainly the
potential for heavy rain, as depicted in the 12z GFS and to a lesser
extent the ECMWF. The Canadian, though, maintains that the low
strays further offshore and takes its rain with it. Have
maintained the NBM solution for the forecast due to uncertainty,
which yields Chnc PoPs (highest east) starting Saturday
afternoon and continuing into early Monday. Also expecting windy
conditions to develop over the weekend, especially at the
coast. Highs in the 60s continue through the weekend and on
Monday. Lows will generally be in the upper 40s in the piedmont
and in the 50s elsewhere through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals this afternoon as
high pressure remains in control. This changes later tonight,
though, when a cold front sweeps across the area. Partly cloudy
skies this afternoon give way to overcast skies tonight. Showers
associated with the front move into the area late this evening
and likely do not impact terminals (RIC and SBY first) until
early tomorrow morning. Kept the mention of showers in the RIC
TAF, but will mention that morning high-res models trended down
in precip coverage for central VA. Meanwhile, SBY could see
moderate to heavy rainfall, which could impact vsbys. Expecting
CIGs to drop to MVFR from NW to SE late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. ECG does not look to drop to MVFR within the 18z TAF
period, though. Did see some signal for IFR CIGs, but want to
see some more consistency in the guidance before going too low
with those. Winds switch around to the N behind the front,
becoming breezy with gusts around 15kt tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Skies will clear out in the wake of the front
Wednesday night, with a breezy NNE wind at the coast continuing
into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in. Another period of
sub-VFR CIGs are possible as we head into this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisory continues for the Chesapeake Bay north of
  Windmill Point this evening into tonight.

- A cold front crosses the waters Wednesday afternoon, brining
elevated north to northeast winds and building seas. Unsettled
conditions linger into Friday and Saturday for at least the offshore
waters and southern Chesapeake Bay.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions likely develop
later Saturday into early next week.

1024mb high pressure remains over the western Atlantic, ridging to
the SW into GA and the Carolinas. Southerly winds across the waters
are around 10 kt with gusts 10-15 kt. An upper trough and cold front
are noted over the Midwest. The gradient tightens this evening ahead
of these features with low-end SCA conditions likely for our
northern Ches Bay zone (N Windmill Pt) with winds generally 10-15 kt
for areas to the south. Offshore, winds will gust 20-25 kt over the
northern coastal waters for a decent period tonight but seas are
forecast to stay in the 3-4 ft range so no additional headlines have
been issued for the overnight period.

The potent cold front is forecast to drop southward through the
waters Wednesday (likely during the early to mid afternoon hours).
An abrupt shift to the N is expected behind the boundary, along with
a wind surge by the evening as cooler air quickly filters in and
strong high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes
vicinity. Strong Small Craft Advisory winds continue to be the most
likely scenario with potential for a brief period of gale-force
gusts during the 10PM-2AM period when it appears post-frontal
pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be maximized. Local wind
probs for gusts in excess of 34 kt remain below 20% for late
Wednesday evening but warm local waters and incoming cold/dry air
may allow stronger flow aloft to mix down to the surface. In the
wake of the cold front, a compressed pressure gradient will prevail,
especially for the southern half of the area with anomalously strong
high pressure to our north and lower pressures offshore of the
Carolinas. Therefore, there is high confidence that SCA conditions
continue for the Atlantic waters, Currituck Sound, and Chesapeake
Bay south of New Point Comfort. A reprieve from the wind is possible
for the middle/upper bay and adjacent rivers from late Thursday into
Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft by Wednesday night
and then 6-9 ft by Thursday.

Forecast uncertainty continues for this weekend. However, there is
agreement across nearly all deterministic and ensemble model
guidance that low pressure develops along the stalled front/coastal
trough Saturday, drifting north or northeast near or just offshore
of our coastline Sunday into Monday. The track and strength of the
low show considerable variation among and within the global
deterministic and ensemble solutions, respectively. The latest GFS
and ECMWF show the low lifting north and strengthening on Sunday and
doing some kind of pirouette near the coast as the low occludes on
Monday. Either of these solutions would result in a prolonged period
of significant marine impacts. The Canadian model continues to keep
the low suppressed well offshore with fewer impacts to the local
waters. Have increased the winds a bit with this forecast but not as
much as the GFS would support. Strong Gale conditions are
increasingly likely during the late Saturday into Monday timeframe
with some potential for Storm conditions if the more aggressive
guidance were to verify. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to
at least 9-13+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the Chesapeake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night,
other than nuisance flooding near Bishop`s Head, MD this afternoon
and again tonight. Given the very high astronomical tides combined
with moderately strong NE winds, minor flooding is possible in areas
adjacent to the lower Ches Bay and tidal York/James on Thursday and
Friday. Additional coastal flooding is possible this weekend,
depending on the track and strength of coastal low pressure.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ630.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...