478
FXUS61 KAKQ 150848
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures are expected through tonight. Temperatures
moderate by late week into the weekend. Dry weather prevails
through Friday night with rain chances increasing this weekend.
Another cold front pushes through Sunday with colder weather
expected by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions will continue today, especially near the coast.

- Cold conditions are expected tonight with widespread teens for
  lows. Winds diminish, so wind chills will not be much lower
  than actual air temperatures.

The Arctic front is now just south of the area with gusty N-NW winds
(to 25-30 mph). However, temps are a still in the upper 20s to mid
30s (locally mid 20s on the MD Eastern Shore). Still think temps
drop into the lower-mid 20s by sunrise, with wind chills dropping to
5-10F on the eastern shore (and 10-15F+ elsewhere). Therefore, will
maintain the Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM for most of the
eastern shore. Otherwise, it will be sunny, cold, and breezy today
(especially near the coast) with gusts up to 25-30 mph expected
through the day. Forecast highs are only in the mid to upper 30s
(lower 30s on the MD Eastern Shore). High pressure currently
centered near the mid Mississippi River Valley builds over the area
tonight, allowing winds to become light or calm. Under clear skies,
temperatures will plummet into the teens to low 20s tonight given
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Luckily with winds slackening,
not expecting us to reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria as wind
chills will pretty much be the same as our actual air
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures begin to moderate some on Thursday and Friday.

A clipper system is progged to track to our north on Thursday as
high pressure becomes suppressed to the southeast of the FA. While
winds will become light out of the SSW, cloud cover will increase
throughout the day as that system tracks across the northern Mid-
Atlantic. As a result, it will still be cool with highs in the lower-
mid 40s near/south of I-64 and only in the upper 30s N. The system
moves offshore Thursday night while dragging a weaker cold front
through the area. This will lead to clearing skies and lows in the
20s. Not expecting any measurable precip Thu/Thu night...but cannot
rule out a flurry or two on the MD Eastern Shore Thu aftn/evening.
Cool/dry wx is expected on Friday as high pressure returns to the
area. Forecast highs are in the lower-mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate this weekend ahead of a cold front.

- Rain chances increase this weekend with a chance of rain becoming
snow Monday.

- Behind a cold front this weekend, much colder weather arrives
early next week with highs struggling to reach above freezing.

With high pressure offshore, low pressure stemming from the Gulf
Coast will move eastward along with a stronger northern low over
Canada bringing seasonable temps and rain chcs for the weekend.
Ahead of the first cold front associated with the low, Sat temps
will warm up to the mid to upper 40s for most of the FA (SE VA/NE NC
in the lower 50s).  Weaker CAA from the first front will allow Sun
highs to be similar to Sat. Sun highs will be slightly cooler in the
lower 40s towards the piedmont and Eastern Shore and mid to upper
40s elsewhere. Behind the second stronger cold front, strong Arctic
airmass will dominate the majority of the US. This strong cold air
will cause highs to struggle to reach more than the 30s Mon with
highs below freezing on Tues and Wed (highs Wed in SE VA/NE NC will
slightly reach above freezing).

The cold front on Sat will bring the next chc for measurable
rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF models continue to hint towards a
low pressure system forming off the Carolina coast, moving up
the coastline on Sun. With the colder airmass, a chc of mixed
wintry precip is possible on Sun night, transitioning to snow
early Mon. Models have increased in probs of snow with the GEFS
00z/15 run showing a 50-60% chc of 1" of snow, while the ECMWF
ensemble only has about 10-20% for 1". Have capped PoPs to chc
for any precip at this time. With this uncertainty between
models, confidence is low and trends will continued being
monitored.

Another system is possible to bring wintry precip mid next
week. Latest ECMWF ensemble model has about a 20-30% chc of snow
for this time frame with about a fifth of members hinting
towards high snowfall amounts. With this event still days away,
we are monitoring the trends and continue to fine tune the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Wednesday...

A strong cold front has crossed most of the terminals at this
hour, and is progged to move south of the area by 09z. NW winds
have increased to 10-15 kt behind the front, with gusts to 25
kt. SCT mid level clouds (6000-8000 ft AGL) will clear out by
10z, with clear skies then expected for the remainder of the
06z/15 TAF period. WNW-NW winds will remain gusty (to 25 kt)
today before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles near
the area.

Outlook: VFR from tonight-Fri. Mainly clear tonight, with
increasing mid to high level clouds on Thursday as a clipper
system passes by to our north. Skies clear out Thu night-Fri. Lighter
winds are also expected on Thu/Fri. A low pressure system will
likely bring rain to the terminals from Sat-Sat night, along
with a period of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EST Wednesday...

- Gale conditions continue on the coastal waters and Chesapeake
  Bay through this morning. There also remains some concern for
  light freezing spray.

- Quieter marine conditions expected tonight and Thursday.

- Marginal SCAs possible Thursday night and Friday morning.

Morning analysis shows a strong cold front now just S of the area.
After a quiet evening, NW/NNW winds have increased markedly in the
wake of the front as strong cold advection pushes over the waters.
Current obs show winds generally 20-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. A few
gusts to 40 kt have been observed at elevated sites in the
Chesapeake Bay. Seas have been slow to respond and remain 3-4 ft for
most our ocean area, except 5-6 ft offshore of the MD waters. Seas
should build to 4-6 ft areawide over the next few hours, with waves
in the bay 3-5 ft. Similar conditions are expected through this
morning and Gale Warnings are in effect until 12z/7 AM for the bay
and ocean. It is possible the gale warnings could be cancelled an
hour or two early based on latest model data but will reevaluate
this potential in a few hours. Gales will need to be replaced with
SCAs once the gales drop off...likely through most of this
afternoon. Elsewhere on the rivers and Currituck Sound, SCAs
continue through 18z/1 PM. Light freezing spray remains possible
through this morning as well.

Conditions quickly become quieter later this evening and especially
tonight, with westerly winds 5-10 kt and seas/waves 2-3 ft or less.
Sub-SCA winds/seas continue through most of Thursday as winds
briefly turn to the SW ahead of another weaker front. W-WNW winds
Thursday night look to increase to 15-20 kt and marginal/short
duration SCAs are possible on the bay and ocean. A stronger front is
expected by Sat and SW winds increase ahead of it, followed by NNW
winds increasing later Sunday into next Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633-
     635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...SW