429
FXUS61 KAKQ 300026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
826 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 810 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another cool night with lows in the mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE.

- Pleasant weather continues Saturday with just a slight chance
  for a shower near the Albemarle Sound during the afternoon
  and early evening.

A weakening frontal boundary continues to slowly push SE into
the local area this evening. Aloft, the flow is from the WNW,
around the base of a more potent upper level trough spinning
across Quebec and the St Lawrence Valley. High clouds have
increased over the past few hours, though these clouds are
rather thin thus far. Current temperatures are mainly in the mid
60s to lower 70s, and dew pts have risen into the upper 50s to
lower 60s with the loss of daytime mixing as well as some modest
moisture pooling along the front. Still not anticipating any
precip tonight, and even any lower clouds should just be
scattered at most. Current forecast for lows ranging from the
mid 50s NW to the lower-mid 60s SE looks on track. Winds will be
fairly light, then shift to the N/NE overnight, and increase to
~10 mph near the coast near sunrise.

12z guidance still shows the front clearing most of the area by
mid morning on Saturday with decreasing clouds and dew points
from N to S during the afternoon. There is increasing confidence
that the front hangs up across our NC counties during the
afternoon so have included slight chance PoPs in these areas.
Not expecting much in the way of QPF with any showers that
manage to form as instability will be lacking. High temps return
to the mid/upper 70s for the northern third of the area with
upper 70s and low 80s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally nice August weather continues Sunday.

Cool and comfortable Saturday night with lows in the 50s to low
60s. Some of the typically cooler rural areas may see lows dip
into the upper 40s.

Gorgeous again on Sunday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew
points mainly in the 50s. Mean upper troughing remains in place
on Sunday with a short wave moving through the region, likely
only resulting in a few more clouds across the area. Very low
chance for a shower or two across the Piedmont but not confident
enough to include in the forecast at this time. Mostly clear
skies expected Sunday night with lows again in the 50s to low
60s. Similar conditions expected Monday with highs in the 70s to
around 80F and partly-mostly sunny as the sfc high becomes
centered to the N/NE of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a
  mainly dry weather pattern to persist early next week.

- Next chance for rain is mid to late week.

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through
first half of next week as high pressure remains in control at the
sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for
rain outside of a stray shower looks like it would be mid to late
week as a stronger front approaches the area. 12z model
guidance does develop a low along the front that would travel NE
through the area, but timing differs considerably between the
GFS and ECMWF at the moment. Temps will be generally the same
Tue- Thurs with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows
in the mid- upper 50s inland and low-mid 60s closer to the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 30/00z TAF period. High
clouds are moving in from the NW (~25k ft) and will continue
overnight into Saturday morning, but the airmass will be too dry
in the lower levels for anything else other than perhaps FEW-
SCT clouds ~10k ft. Winds will be relatively light overnight,
then shift to the N/NE behind a weak frontal boundary Saturday
morning. SCT-BKN cumulus are likely late Saturday morning/aftn,
mainly across southern areas, with an isolated shower possible
at ECG after ~18Z (though the chance is too low for even a
PROB30 group at this time). NE winds will average around 10 kt
at ORF/ECG, and 5-10 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather
through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

- A cold front crosses the waters this evening into tonight.

- A prolonged period of slightly elevated onshore flow is expected
beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week.

A cold front continues to approach from the N-NNE this afternoon as
benign marine conditions prevail across the marine area with
variable winds of 5-10 kt and 2 ft seas/1 ft waves. The cold front
crosses the waters this evening into tonight, with winds becoming
NNE in its wake. Wind speeds are expected to remain around 10 to 15
knots tonight into Saturday. High pressure builds south into the
area Sunday into early next week while weak low pressure develops
well off the Carolina coast. The gradient between these two features
will lead to onshore (ENE-NE) flow starting Sunday and continuing
early next week. Wind speeds will average 10-15 kt during this time
(highest S), but a period of 15-20 kt winds is possible from Mon-Tue
south of Cape Henry. Winds relax a bit on Wed with mainly sub-SCA
winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas/waves should remain 2 to 3 feet/1 to 2 feet through Sunday,
although a brief increase to ~2 feet waves in the Chesapeake Bay is
likely late tonight into Saturday morning. The persistent onshore
flow will result in building seas next week, with 4-5 ft seas
forecast by Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before slowly
subsiding). SCAs may be needed for the coastal waters for seas
starting Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC/LKB
SHORT TERM...AC/RHR
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC/LKB
MARINE...ERI