529
FXUS61 KAKQ 171933
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
333 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry conditions are expected through tonight as high
pressure moves into the local area and gradually pushes
offshore. A warming trend is expected this weekend with the
next system approaching from the northwest late in the day on
Sunday. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by
mainly dry weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry and cool tonight.

- Warmer Saturday as high pressure drops SE off the Carolina
  coast.

This afternoon, ~1021 mb high pressure is centered just to the
west of the local area leading to continued dry conditions and
sunny skies. Temperatures are generally in the lower 60s this
afternoon, with highs on track for the low to mid 60s. For
tonight, skies start out clear with high pressure remaining near
the local area. High and mid level clouds increase later in the
night into Saturday morning from SW to NE as a warm front lifts
north through the area. With the clear skies, dry conditions,
and high pressure in place it will be another night of decent
radiational cooling. As a result, went cooler than the NBM for
tonight and have lows generally in the low 40s inland. Would not
be surprised if a few locations, especially across interior SE
VA and NE NC, drop back into the upper 30 before clouds move in
late.

On Saturday, skies start out partly sunny to mostly cloudy with
decreasing clouds from SW to NE during the late morning and
early afternoon. The low level flow becomes S or SE on Saturday
with high pressure becoming centered to our SE. Warmer with
highs in the 70s for much of the area, with mid to upper 60s
across the Eastern Shore due to a weak onshore wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area
Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and a
chance for showers.

- Cooler on Monday in the wake of the front.

S and SW winds increase Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of an approaching cold front. It will be breezy to windy at
times, with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph inland and up to 35 mph along
the coast. We warm well above seasonal norms Sunday with highs well
into the 70s across the area. The cold front approaches from the
northwest later in the afternoon, eventually crossing the area later
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Most of the area stays dry
during the day Sunday, but we will see increasing cloud cover from W
to E. Scattered showers cannot be ruled out across the far NW late
in the afternoon/evening, but the bulk of the rain is expected
Sunday night. CAMs are beginning to depict a thin line of showers
crossing the area Sunday evening into Sunday night which may be
accompanied by locally higher wind gusts. Instability is lacking, so
overall thunderstorm chances are little to none. Total QPF generally
ranges from ~0.10" to 0.25" (with locally higher amounts up to
0.50"). The highest QPF will mainly be confined to western and
northern portions of the area. Rain chances quickly come to an end
from W to E later Sunday night/early Monday with temperatures
falling back into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Decreasing temperatures and humidity will move into the region on
Monday behind the cold front. Highs will top out in the mid to upper
60s with full sunshine expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another cold front crosses the region late Tuesday into Wednesday
with very limited moisture.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the mid to late week
period.

Remaining dry Monday night with lows falling back into the 40s
(potentially upper 30s in spots). Another (mainly dry) cold front
approaches and crosses the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with
high pressure returning for the mid to late week period.
Temperatures warm to above average ahead of the front on Tuesday,
with high temperatures generally in the 70s. Blended guidance is not
excited about the chance for any appreciable rainfall with the front
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Staying dry and seasonable mid to late week
with highs generally in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 18z/17 TAF
period. Mainly clear skies continue through this evening into
the first half of the night. Mid and high level clouds gradually
increase in coverage from SW to NE later in the night into
Saturday morning before clearing out later in the day. Winds
become light and variable to calm tonight, becoming S to SE ~5
to 10 knots on Saturday.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through Saturday
night. S/SW winds increase on Sunday to ~15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not
appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only
brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry weather
returns Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the southern coastal waters
  only through tonight.

- High pressure builds over the waters tonight and Saturday with
  improving marine conditions.

- Small Craft Advisories are very likely Sunday into Monday with the
  next frontal passage.

Winds have been decreasing throughout the day as high pressure is
centered overhead. Winds are currently ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in
the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters with a few gusts to
25 kt in the southern waters. SCAs have been cancelled for the
northern coastal waters, Ches. Bay, and the mouth of the Ches. Bay
as winds and seas have decreased below criteria this afternoon. SCAs
continue for the southern coastal waters as seas remain 4-6 ft this
evening. After seas decline this evening, sub-SCA conditions will
return as high pressure settles overhead through Saturday. Light and
variable winds are expected through Saturday afternoon before
shifting to the S-SE at 10-15 kt by early Sunday morning.

Later this weekend, a deepening low pressure system will track just to
the north of the area with the associated cold front quickly
crossing the local waters Sunday night to Monday morning. SCA
conditions are expected both before and after the front as winds
will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt out of the SW in
the coastal waters and Ches. bay by Sunday night. There is potential
for some gusts up to 34 kt, but with SW winds, the model guidance
tends to overestimate the frequency of gale-force gusts. Local wind
probs continues to show a 30-70% chance of gale-force gusts (highest
in the coastal waters), so will continue to monitor, but have lower
confidence in this occuring. Winds will then shift W at 20-25 kt
Monday morning, decreasing throughout the day to 15-20 kt in the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Sub-SCA winds are expected Mon night-
Tue AM before another round of SCAs is possible late Tue-Wed as
another cold front is progged to approach and cross the waters.

Waves and seas have fallen throughout the day, now 1-2 ft in the
Ches. Bay and 3-4 ft in the coastal waters north of Cape Henry. 4-6
ft remain in the southern coastal waters, so the SCA will remain
until 2 AM Saturday morning. Waves and seas will stay below SCA
criteria Saturday at 3-4 ft in the coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the
Ches. Bay before building back to 5-7 ft Sun evening/night. Waves
build to 3-4 ft on the bay during this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Water levels are expected to rise in the upper bay starting on
Saturday but especially Saturday night-Sunday (due to the
increasing south winds ahead of the front). Minor tidal flooding
is likely during this time from Windmill Point northward, with
localized moderate flooding possible on the bay side of the MD
Eastern Shore. The best chance for moderate flooding is during
the high tide cycles on Sunday/Sunday night as winds become SW
then W behind the front. Water levels gradually fall early next
week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ERI/KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...