595
FXUS61 KAKQ 311907
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
307 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer
temperatures and a chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and below average temperatures continue tonight with
  lows mainly in the 50s.

Afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure over the Great lakes
building E-SE toward the area, with a deep trough aloft over the
eastern CONUS. Cloud cover has increased some this aftn as a
shortwave at the base of the trough is crossing the area. Normally,
this would at least bring a chance for showers this time of year,
but given the dry air in place over a deep layer, nothing more than
clouds are expected through this evening before skies gradually
clear tonight. Very nice wx continues with temps in the mid to upper
70s and dew pts in the upper 40s-lower 50s in most areas. A NE wind
has increased to ~15 mph near the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph.
Winds become light/calm inland with a NE wind of 10-15 mph
continuing near the immediate coast. Widespread lower 50s are
expected inland, with low/mid 60s in far SE VA/NE NC. Similar to
this morning, a few spots will likely drop into the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- The streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday
  and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures expected on
  Wednesday.

The large surface high to our north remains in control on Mon/Tue,
which will lead to continued NE flow along with dry/pleasant wx with
mainly mid-upper 70s as highs. Remaining breezy near the coast on
Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Still think the low
remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but
there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday
afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds
expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be
similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Widespread
50s are expected inland on both Mon/Tue night, with lower-mid 60s
near the coast. The high shifts offshore on Wednesday, allowing the
low-level flow to become more southeasterly. At the same time, a
weak shortwave approaches from the west with stronger low pressure
diving SE from central Canada to the NW Great Lakes. Modest moisture
return is expected with aftn dew points rising to ~60F. However, it
will very likely remain dry with perhaps a bit more in the way of
cloud cover. Forecast highs Wed are a few degrees higher than on
Mon/Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into
  Friday as a front approaches the region from the west.

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with
  highs in the mid to locally upper 80s possible.

The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the
area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms
during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less
SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably
warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest
increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid
60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday,
especially across the northern half of the area. There won`t be much
in the way of CAA with the front on Thu/Thu night. In fact, forecast
highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Fri/Sat with 60s
dew pts. Still a low confidence forecast from Friday into the
weekend as the 12z GFS continues to show higher precip chances than
the ECMWF (mainly on Sat/Sat night). The ECMWF has no more than
isolated showers in the forecast. Regardless, not really expecting a
widespread soaking rain, as GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance has areal avg
amounts of less than 0.25" across the area from Friday-Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/31 TAF period. Partly
cloudy skies prevail over the terminals with both high CI and
SCT CU. Skies clear out tonight, with SCT CU possible Monday
afternoon. NE winds remain gusty (to ~20 kt) near the coast
through this evening before diminishing to ~10 kt tonight. Wind
gusts to 20 kt are likely near the coast once again starting Mon
AM. At RIC, winds become light tonight before increasing back
to ~10 kt on Monday.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at
least midweek. Winds diminish Mon night-Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...

- A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected
  through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a
  portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay this
  afternoon into Monday night.

With the low developing off the SE coast and the high building into
our north, the gradient across the coastal waters has tightened this
afternoon. This has resulted in rapidly building seas off the NC
coast, with observed sea heights nearing 6 ft already this
afternoon. Sea heights north of Cape Henry range between 2-4 ft, and
waves are between 1-3 ft. Marine-based sites are measuring winds of
10-20 kts, with the highest winds in the southern waters.

High pressure will remain in place through early next week. The area
of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift
northeastward over the next day or so. The gradient between the high
to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading to
a period increased onshore flow, especially across our southern
waters, through early next week. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20
knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot to
near 20 kts winds is likely today through Monday south of Cape
Henry. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the southern coastal
waters and will expand to the remainder of the coastal waters
through early tomorrow morning. Decided to include the northern Bay
zones in the SCA tomorrow morning, though this may be a more
marginal SCA than the southern Bay. By tomorrow evening, the coastal
waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering
seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly
sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week.

The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas through
early next week, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast starting today. Will
need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may
continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be
made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain
elevated through Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below
SCA criteria.

The rip current risk will be high for the southern beaches tomorrow,
with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk
will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will
remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore
normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds
and seas will both be subsiding.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the
forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best
estimation is:

- RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992.
- SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008.
- ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/NB
CLIMATE...