668
FXUS61 KAKQ 021903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures expected behind a seasonally strong cold
front. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal
temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly cloudy, cooler, and drier this afternoon.

- Lows range from the upper 50s in the piedmont to around 70
  immediately near the coast tonight.

Mid-day sfc analysis indicates a large area of high pressure (1028-
130mb) building into the FA from the NW and yesterday`s cold front
well south of the area. Aloft, a trough axis swings towards the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with more zonal flow to the south. Lower
level moisture lingers over the area, leading to continued broken
cloud cover. Additionally, there is a low-end chance for a few
sprinkles/light rain showers over far southern VA and northern NC.
The pressure gradient between the front to the south and building
high pressure is enough to support gusty onshore winds at the coast.
The cloudy skies, breezy conditions, and temps only in the upper 70s
makes it feel a lot more like early to mid fall rather than the
second day of August (you can practically smell the pumpkin spice in
the air).

As we head into the evening, the cloud cover should start to scatter
out. By late tonight, most of the area should be under clear skies
with a few clouds lingering in the SE. While the breeze will
continue overnight immediately near the coast, winds inland will be
near-calm. Lows tonight will be in the mid-upper 50s W of I-95, low
60s along and E of I-95, and around 70 immediately near the shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures continues from Canadian high pressure.

- Mostly dry through early week as high pressure dominates.

The below normal temps and lower humidity continue Sun as the cool
high pressure ridges down the coast behind low pressure deepening
well offshore. Highs will be in the low 80s under partly sunny
skies. Breezy onshore winds with gusts ~20-25mph at the coast are
expected again during the day Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper 50s W of I-95 and ranging through the 60s E of I-95. Not
terribly different for Monday, though a couple of degrees warmer
with highs in the mid 80s. The developing low pressure will stay
well offshore as it progresses NE on Monday, but cannot totally rule
out an isolated shower at the coast Monday afternoon. Lows Monday
night will be in the low 60s inland and upper 60s/around 70 closer
to the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler below average to seasonable temperatures outlooked through
  late week.

- Mostly dry conditions with returning moisture and increasing
  rain chances by mid week.

The strong high pressure will begin to slide offshore Tuesday
which will allow for a more modified airmass. Increasing
moisture is expected by Tuesday as an upper trough that will
extend from the Great Lakes through the SE US brings in deeper
atmospheric moisture to the region from the Gulf. The GFS
continues to suggest that another weak area of low pressure
could develop off the Carolina coast along the stalled frontal
boundary during this time period, but this feature does not
appear in the other 12z global models. This could enhance the
moisture moving into our area if it manifests. As the trough
moves over the area, rain chances return mid week. Temperatures
will remain at or below the normal for this time of year with
highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR prevails for the terminals during the 18z/02 TAF period as
high pressure builds in from the NW. Still have a mid level BKN
cloud deck with CIGs at 045-075kft. Still expecting clouds to
scatter out heading into the evening and overnight. NE winds
will continue to be gusty through late this afternoon,
particularly at PHF/ORF/ECG where 20-25kt gusts are forecast.
Lighter winds overnight, especially inland. Becoming breezy
again mid morning tomorrow.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR prevails through early next week as
drier air filters in behind the cold front, but NE winds remain
elevated along the coast into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect all areas today, and for
  much of the region through early Monday.

- High Risk for Rip Currents in effect all beaches today, with
  a High Surf Advisory in effect for the Atlantic coast of
  Currituck NC.

Strong nearly 1030mb high pressure is centered over the Great
Lakes this aftn, with low pressure centered E of the SC coast. A
strong NE wind continues, mainly 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt,
but locally 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt S of Cape Henry. Seas
range from 5-6ft N to 7-9ft S. Waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly
3-4ft for the mid/upper Bay, and 4-5ft for the lower Bay and
mouth of the Bay. The surface high slowly moves east this later
this aftn into tonight, with the pressure gradient expected to
weaken a bit, especially over northern portions of the marine
area late this aftn and evening. Winds will likely diminish to
10-15 kt over the upper Bay and upper rivers, while remaining
15-20kt elsewhere. However, a late evening overnight increase to
15-20kt is likely over the mid/upper Bay tonight. SCAs continue
through Sunday night/Monday morning for the lower Bay, lower
James, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters (NC coastal waters
have been extended through late Monday aftn), but may be able to
be dropped late today/tonight at least for the upper rivers.
The SCAs for the ocean will probably need further extensions in
time for seas at or above 5 ft, at least from the VA/NC border
through Parramore Is.

The general pattern keeps onshore flow in place through the
week, with strong/anomalous high pressure (>1030 mb) becoming
centered over eastern Canada and New England Tuesday-Thursday.
Expect at least elevated E to NE winds and possibly SCAs for
much of the area.

A High Rip Current risk remains in effect for all beaches
today, with 6-8ft seas south, and 4-6 ft seas north (where more
of a strong longshore current prevails). A high Rip risk will
continue Sunday over the south, and likely a High risk for the
northern beaches as well. High south and moderate north will
likely linger into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies this aftn average around 1.5-2ft above normal
over the lower Bay, and ~1.5ft above normal across the northern
Neck along the western shore of the Bay and southern shore of
the Potomac. This is due to the elevated NE wind, elevated seas,
and 2 successive flood tides at the mouth of the bay (with no
ebbing in between). A brief ebb tide was observed late this
morning, but has quickly shifted to a flood tide. Therefore,
expect anomalies to continue to rise over the next 12-36 hours
as NE winds persist and seas build a bit more across the SE
VA/NE NC coastal waters. Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements
for expected minor tidal flooding during the high tide later
this aftn and evening/overnight remain in effect. The highest
chc of minor flooding is from Lewisetta to Tappahannock along
the tidal Potomac/Rappahannock Rivers as well as the bay side of
the MD Eastern Shore, with nuisance to minor tidal flooding
over the lower Bay and tidal James River. It is rare to see more
than 3 successive flood tides without an ebbing at the mouth of
the Bay so with this in mind, moderate flooding is unlikely and
would anticipate departures to peak with the high tide later
today/tonight. Water levels should fall a bit later this weekend
as NE winds/seas subside a bit, though nuisance to low end
minor flooding will be possible again Sunday aftn/evening with
the higher of the two astronomical tides.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening for
Outer Banks Currituck for nearshore waves around 8ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ075-
     077-078-085-086.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ076-083-
     518-520>522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ089-
     090-093-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/KMC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ