448
FXUS61 KAKQ 271924
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
324 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds into the region through midweek,
bringing dry and very pleasant conditions to the region...with
below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- High pressure continues to build in with cooler and drier air
  pushing into the region today. Highs mainly in the upper 70s
  to low 80s. Relative humidity values fall to around 30% this
  afternoon.

- Chilly tonight with lows in the 50s inland to low 60s at the
  coast. Some upper 40s will be possible Thu morning well
  inland.

Afternoon sfc analysis indicates strong high pressure centered over
Kentucky and surrounding states. Aloft, a trough dips down along the
East Coast nearly to Florida. It is a very pleasant day and an early
taste of Fall with latest obs showing temps in the mid to upper 70s
and dew points in the mid-upper 40s. Skies are mostly sunny with
scattered cu over everywhere but the Eastern Shore.

High pressure slides in over the FA tonight, leading to calm
conditions. This in addition to the dry air in place will allow for
temps to drop off fairly quickly during the first half of the night.
A weak shortwave passes through aloft, allowing thicker cloud cover
to move in overhead. This should slow the rate of cooling down a
bit. Lows tonight look to be in the low-mid 50s inland and closer to
60 near the coast. Would not be surprised if a couple of the rural
locations drop as low at 50 tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average
  temps are expected Thursday and Friday.

Sfc high pressure slides offshore while the upper trough remains in
place. Pleasant weather continues through the end of the week
with highs in the around 80 on Thurs and low-mid 80s on Fri.
Broken cloud cover should scatter out by the afternoon Thurs
then staying mostly sunny through Friday. Lows on Thurs night
will be in the mid-upper 50s W of I-95 and low 60s to the E,
similar conditions Fri night though perhaps a couple degrees
warmer. May see dew points creep back into the lower 60s on Fri.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

-  Pleasant weather persists for the late week period into the
upcoming holiday weekend.

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a
mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day
Holiday.

At the surface, the high pressure sets up just offshore going into
the weekend. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday
night. Highs Sat through Tues are likely to be several degrees
below normal, remaining in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows
should generally be in the mid 50s inland, again cooler in
typically cooler sheltered/rural locales, with upper 50s to low
60s in the east.

Current indications are similar wx continues as we approach
Labor Day, though low end rain chances may return by late in the
weekend, mainly over the southern half of the area, as a series
of weak perturbations continue to pivot through the lingering
east coast trough.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z TAF period as high pressure
continues to build in overhead. SCT mid level cloud cover west
of the bay and clear skies at SBY this afternoon. Expecting
clouds to become BKN overnight before scattering out again
tomorrow afternoon. No vsby restrictions are anticipated
tonight. N/NW winds of 5-10kt this afternoon become light and
variable/calm overnight as the high slides overhead.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR with dry weather continues through
Saturday. Light and variable winds are expected through Thu as
high pressure builds overhead then slides offshore late week
into the upcoming holiday weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure prevails the remainder of the week with another
frontal passage late Friday into early Saturday.

- A prolonged period of onshore flow is possible beginning late this
weekend and continuing into early next week.

1025mb high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley this aftn and
extends eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Seas range from 2-3ft N,
to ~3ft off the coast of VA Beach, and 3-4ft off the Currituck Outer
Banks. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay are approximately 1-2ft. Benign
marine conditions are expected tonight into Thursday afternoon as
high pressure settles over the region. Seas subside to ~2ft with
waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft. High pressure slides offshore later
Thursday aftn into Thursday night with the wind becoming S to SW and
a modest tightening of the pressure gradient. 27/12z guidance is
mixed on the strength of the wind. However, local wind probs are
very low on sustained 18kt wind speeds. Therefore, the forecast
will continue to show a S the SW wind of 10-15kt, with occasional
gusts up to 20kt (mainly Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters)
overnight Thursday night. A cold front is expected to cross the
coast later Friday into early Saturday. Substantial differences in
timing and evolution front exist in the model guidance, with even a
hint of a weak wave of low pressure along the boundary. A brief
increase in wind is possible behind the front, but guidance supports
sub-SCA conditions at this time. 27/12z EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance
supports seasonally strong high pressure (~ +1 st dev) moving over
New England and Atlantic Canada and lagging back into the Midwest
early-mid next week, with a wave of low pressure developing off the
Southeast coast. This will bring the potential for a rather lengthy
period of NE/onshore flow beginning late this weekend and continuing
at least into early next week. Seas/waves will generally be 2-3ft/1-
2ft into the weekend, potentially increasing substantially Sunday
into early next week with the prolonged onshore flow (especially S).

For the first time in quite some time the rip risk will drop to low
for all beaches Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ/RHR