910
FXUS61 KAKQ 161059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The frontal boundary will remain to the south of the area
providing additional showers and storms to NE NC. Somewhat
lower rain chances are expected today for the northern half of
the area, though unsettled conditions continue through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge expands northward by the middle of next
week, bringing hot weather with lower rain chances Wednesday,
followed by hot conditions Thursday, with scattered showers and
storms as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch has been extended into late tonight for NE NC as
  additional rounds of rainfall is expected today.

- Mostly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s north,
  mid to upper 70s central VA, upper 70s to low 80s south
  central and southeast VA into NE NC.

Unsettled weather continues as the stationary front remains just to
the south of the CWA. Sfc low pressure associated with the frontal
boundary will develop offshore this morning, which will help prevent
instability to the north. Heavy rainfall with the front remains to
be a concern today, mostly for the NE NC counties as PW values
remain well above climo. Rainfall totals for today are less than
yesterday (1-2" expected, with locally higher amounts possible), but
with the ground saturation from yesterday and last night`s showers,
this area is more prone to flash flooding. Expected timing for these
showers will be in the afternoon to late evening. WPC has issued a
Slight ERO for the NE NC to account for the rainfall today. The
Flood Watch for NE NC has been extended through late tonight. North
of the boundary will be drier, but slight chc PoPs remain up to the
RIC metro. High temps today will range from the lower 70s in the
piedmont and Eastern Shore to the lower 80s in NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Tuesday with a few late day strong to severe
storms possible.

- Hot and mainly dry Wednesday.

Another shortwave, this one a bit stronger, is expected to approach
from the west with the upper trough on Tuesday. The stationary front
will be pushed out of the area, allowing afternoon instability to
return. Shear values are not impressive (20-30 kt at best), but
decent mid level lapse rates may make up for the lack of shear. The
primary threat from any severe storm is damaging winds, with the
threat mostly limited to the piedmont. SPC has placed a Marginal
Risk for severe weather in this area.

Tuesday`s highs will be warm in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s on
the Eastern Shore). Precip chances will decrease into Wednesday as
upper air ridging expands north towards the region. This will allow
highs on Wednesday to be in the lower 90s. With a humid airmass,
heat indices may rise above 100F. Given the wet soils, suspect the
temperatures may not get quite as hot as guidance, but that the
humidity will remain high.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

- Rain chances return to near climo.

Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 19-21C Thursday, which would
support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with continued moderate
to high humidity. Heat indices will be the highest on Thursday,
likely above 100F, possibly close to headline criteria in the SE
(though this is several days out so confidence is not high). Latest
ensemble guidance continues to support an upper level trough pushing
a cold front through the region Thursday. There is a Slight Risk of
severe weather with this front. Friday through the weekend appear to
be mostly dry (and slightly cooler on Friday). Hot temperatures
return into early next week based on model agreement on upper
level ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs across area terminals to begin the 12z
TAF period are likely to persist through at least the mid to
late morning hours at area terminals today, with IFR to persist
through much of the day. At this time, trends are keeping ECG
CIGs in MVFR range through the day, with the remaining
terminals to remain in IFR to low- end MVFR through Monday
evening. A lower shower/tstm coverage is expected this
afternoon, mainly impacting ECG through this afternoon. Winds
remain NNE 5-8 kt today, becoming light/variable this evening.

Outlook: CIGs quickly fall back into IFR/LIFR range this evening
into early Tuesday, with patchy fog again likely. Additional
shower/tstm chances are expected Tue aftn/evening, with a lower
coverage Wednesday. A cold front will bring another round of
scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area through midweek
  outside of convection.

Early this morning, wavy frontal boundary was oriented just
south of the local waters. Latest obs reveal NE winds ~10kt
across the northern waters, with more variable winds over
southern waters closer to the front. Latest buoy reports
indicating seas of 3-4ft, highest north of Parramore Island,
with waves 1-2ft.

The quasi-stationary frontal boundary will meander just south
of the area through midweek. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southern waters this
afternoon, which may lead to additional MWS/SMWs this evening
and overnight. Farther north, winds remain E-NE ~10-15kt. Seas
remain at 3-4ft through tonight. Onshore flow continues into
Tuesday, but ~10kt through the afternoon. Winds veer around to
the S-SE, then SW Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the front
lifts back north as a warm front in response to high pressure
settling out into the western Atlantic. Expecting warmer and
breezier conditions for Wed/Thurs ahead of an approaching cold
front. Current forecast is for ~15kt with gusts to ~ 20 kt, but
cannot totally rule out a brief SCA at this point.

Rip current risk is moderate N and low S today and low rip risk
tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...HET/LKB/MAM
MARINE...AC/MAM