359
FXUS61 KAKQ 301842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather continues today with cool temps again
  tonight.

High pressure is building in once again from the NW this afternoon
behind a cold front that pushed offshore earlier today. Feeling like
a broken record writing that it is a very nice day outside once
again (not that I`m complaining). Temps as of latest obs are in the
mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most of
the area. The high level broken cloud cover over much of the area
should break up this evening, leaving behind mostly clear skies.
Went on the cooler side of guidance given the drier air and decent
radiational cooling conditions for temps tonight: lows in the low
50s along and N of I-64, mid 50s for inland locations S of I-64, and
around 60 closer to the coast. Could definitely see some of the
cooler rural locations (especially N) drop to the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally nice August weather continues Sunday and
  Monday.

The rest of the holiday weekend will be more of the same as sfc high
pressure remains in place, as well as a strong UL trough. Highs on
both Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 70s and dew points will
stay in the low-mid 50s. Lows both Sun and Mon nights will be in the
low-mid 50s inland and low 60s near the water. Do expect some
increased cloud cover on Sunday as a disturbance passes through the
UL trough. Then mostly sunny on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue through mid
  week.

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns from Wed
  night onward as a front approaches the region from the west
  and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low.

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues
through first half of next week as high pressure remains in
control at the sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in
place. Next chance for rain looks like it would be mid to late
week as a stronger front approaches the area. Still seeing
difference in 12z global models with respect to timing of the
front and the development of an area of low pressure the SE
coast along the old frontal boundary. Will stick with the
blended guidance given the uncertainty, which results in slight
chance to chance PoPs for the late week period. Temperatures and
dew points increase a few degrees Thursday but still only into
the low 80s with dew points rebounding into the 60s. Dry and
comfortable weather returns behind the front late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR prevails through the 18z TAF period. A high level BKN cloud
deck over much of the area should clear out later this evening,
then another round of higher level clouds will move in during
the late morning tomorrow. Winds will generally be NE through
the period, with some slight variations to the N or E. Overall
winds should be fairly like (5-10kt) but could see some
gustiness at the SE terminals tomorrow morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through the
weekend and into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 234 PM EDT Saturday...

- A prolonged period of slightly elevated onshore flow is expected
  beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next week.

A cold front moved across the coastal waters earlier today,
causing winds to surge through the first part of the morning.
Winds have since decreased a few knots and range between 10-15
kts in the Bay/Ocean and around 10 kts in the rivers. Seas are
2-3 ft in the Ocean, with waves of 1-2 ft being measured across
the Bay. High pressure has started to build across the region
this afternoon in the wake of the front, which has resulted in
NNE winds.

High pressure will remain in place through early next week. An area
of low pressure will start to develop off the Carolina Coast over
the next day or so and slowly lift northeastwards. The gradient
between the high to our north and low to our south will tighten,
leading to increased onshore flow, especially across our southern
waters, starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. Wind
speeds will average 10 to 15 knots during this time (highest S), but
a period of 15 to 20 knot winds is possible Sunday afternoon into
Monday south of Cape Henry. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and
Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay
through Sunday morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent
onshore flow will result in building seas next week, with 4 to 5
feet seas forecast by Monday (and continuing through Tuesday before
slowly subsiding). SCAs may be needed for the coastal waters for
seas starting Monday.

The rip current risk will remain moderate across the southern
beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern beaches.
As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate risk
will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/RHR
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/NB