221
FXUS61 KAKQ 101057
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains north of the area today with dry and
sensible weather. A coastal low develops off the Southeast
coast later today into Saturday, tracking north toward the area
Saturday night and Sunday. Heavy rain, windy conditions, and
coastal flood impacts are likely near the coast. The low
lingers just offshore into early next week, finally moving away
by Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather returns and prevails for the
middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Dry with increasing clouds today. High temps in the mid/upper
  60s to around 70 F.

One more day of dry and relatively pleasant weather is expected
before deteriorating conditions overspread the area tomorrow from a
coastal low. This morning, ~1036 mb sfc high pressure is centered
over southern New England, ridging S/SW into the Mid-Altantic and
Carolinas. A diffuse sfc trough is also located offshore of the
southeast coast to our south. The pressure gradient between these
features is leading to continued onshore flow and breezy conditions
at the coast. Further inland, winds are lighter, generally around 5
MPH. Nighttime satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies with some
low-mid level moisture over the area. Temperatures this morning
are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and upper 50s
closer to the coast.

High pressure keeps us dry through the rest of the day.
However, well to our S, a weak low will develop just offshore of
the GA/FL coast in response to approaching upper- level
forcing. This feature will begin to funnel higher clouds over
the local area later this afternoon, with thickening cloud cover
through the day and mostly cloudy skies expected by this
evening and tonight. High temperatures range from the mid- upper
60s N to around 70 F for southern VA and NE NC. Lows tonight
should be quite mild across the SE (around 60 F) and seasonably
cool elsewhere (upper 40s to mid 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- A potentially significant coastal low impacts the region
  Saturday into early next week, bringing rain, wind, and
  coastal flooding hazards. Confidence remains on the lower side
  given diverging model solutions, but areas near the coast
  continue to have the highest chances of seeing impacts.

A coastal low is still expected to impact the region from later
Saturday into at least Sunday. However, a good deal of forecast
complexities remain. There is good agreement among the model
guidance that the aforementioned low that develops offshore of GA/FL
later today will slowly lift north toward the NC/SC coast Saturday.
Beyond that time, there remains larger-than-normal divergence across
the deterministic and ensemble guidance. There are differences on
both the track and evolution of the low, as well as the strength. In
general, the GFS/GEFS suite continues to advertise a more well-
defined low that tracks near or just offshore of the VA/NC coasts
Saturday night into Sunday. The EPS/ECMWF suite shows a weaker, less-
defined, and more sprawling low that initially remains to our S
Sunday, with a secondary low eventually becoming the dominant
feature offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts by Monday. The Canadian and NAM also track the low northward
near our coastline, but they are a bit more offshore than the GFS.
It will be interesting to see how CAMs handle and depict this low as
we get closer to the event. In fact, some of the currently available
CAMs show some potential for mesoscale enhancements to the low
strength and winds/rain.

All of this model talk aside, our best go at the forecast has rain
beginning to overspread NE NC and southern VA by Saturday afternoon
as the low tracks northward. The core of the heaviest rain is then
expected to track through eastern portions of the area late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. While the coverage and rain amounts are
uncertain (these are closely tied to the track of the low), there is
high confidence in rain for most areas E of I-95 early Sunday
morning and PoPs have again been adjusted upward into the 70-80%
range for these areas. Forecast rain totals are highest E of I-95
and a maxima of 2-3" extends from the coast to about 50-75 miles
inland. A few spots could exceed 3-4" and the highest probabilities
of these higher amounts are along the coast and in far SE VA
and NE NC. Rainfall amounts taper off in the I-95 corridor to
1-1.5", with 1" or less in the Piedmont. A Slight (Level 2 out
5) excessive rainfall risk remains in place for coastal NE NC
and SE VA Saturday night and on the VA/MD Eastern Shore Sunday.
Given dry antecedent conditions, will be holding off on any
Flood Watches at this time. However, one could eventually be
required if confidence increases in those higher totals being
realized and/or the CAMs become particularly enthusiastic on
mesoscale or convectively-enhanced rainfall.

The other aspect to the forecast are the winds. Breezy conditions
are expected areawide from Saturday afternoon into early next week.
However, the most focused area of higher winds should again remain
confined to the coast Saturday night into Sunday (in closer
proximity to the low). Increasingly frequent wind gusts to 40-50 mph
are expected at the coast for most of the day Sunday, with the best
potential for 55+ mph on the Atlantic-facing side of the Eastern
Shore, including up around Ocean City. Wind Advisories are a good
bet for most zones near the coast and if some of the higher-end
scenarios were to materialize, High Wind Watches/Warnings could also
be needed for some spots. As with the rainfall forecast, the winds
are very dependent on the track of the low. A weaker and broader low
(as depicted in the 00z deterministic ECMWF) would portend to lower
winds than what is highlighted in our forecast.

For temperatures, highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected
Saturday, with cooler temps in the mid-upper 60s areawide Sunday.
Overnight lows should be around 60 F Saturday night and in the 50s
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Chances for rain and breezy conditions persist into Monday as
  the coastal low lingers offshore.

- Slowly drying out Tuesday and especially by the middle and
  end of next week.

Uncertainty is highest in the Monday and Tuesday timeframe as the
low could either remain offshore and slowly spin down or potentially
rotate back toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Should the later scenario
materialize, unsettled, breezy, and wet conditions would
persist through Tuesday. If it remains well offshore, improving
conditions would be expected by later Monday. Either way, by
this time, the low should be rather weak with only lighter
rainfall and lower winds. Still expect it to be quite breezy
Monday as winds turn to the NW. The blended approach from the
NBM keeps chance to likely PoPs for eastern and northeastern
portions of the area through Monday night, with slight chance
PoPs lingering into Tuesday. Overall, this seems reasonable and
see no reason to adjust these values.

The model consensus then is for high pressure to build down toward
the region from the upper Great Lakes by midweek as a mainly dry
cold front moves through. Therefore, more sensible and drier wx is
expected by then. Forecast highs through most of next week are
generally in the mid-upper 60s, with the best shot of any 70s across
the SE. These temps are a bit below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Predominantly VFR is expected at all terminals through the
12z/10 period. SCT (locally BKN) low-mid clouds are present
over some of the area this morning, but CIGs are ~4000 ft or
higher. Expect additional lower clouds to move onshore this
morning. These CIGs are also expected to remain VFR, but cannot
rule out some high-end MVFR. Either way, cloud cover thickens
through the day, with increasing high clouds later in the
afternoon as well. NE winds with gusts of 15-25 kts are expected
at the coastal sites through this afternoon, with 5-10 kt
sustained winds at the inland terminals. Lighter winds tonight
under an overcast sky.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs, elevated winds, and moderate to heavy
rain are likely as we head into later Saturday as low pressure
develops offshore. Periods of sub-VFR conditions likely continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local
  waters through Saturday.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast
  from Saturday evening into Monday. Gale Watches are in effect
  for the Bay, rivers, sound and NC coastal waters. Storm
  Watches remain in effect for the VA-MD coastal waters.


Strong sfc high pressure (~1033 mb) is centered NNE of the local
area from the eastern Great Lakes to New England, ridging S into
the region. NE winds remain elevated over the local waters, but
speeds are diminishing somewhat and should be able to drop SCAs
across the upper Bay and MD coastal waters shortly. Elsewhere,
SCAs are likely to persist through Saturday (even with a period
of briefly lighter winds tonight). Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft
N, 3-4 ft S, with seas offshore 4-5 ft N and 5-8 ft S.

The main focus continues to be the developing coastal low off
the coast of FL/GA Saturday, which will track northward over or
close to our waters Sunday into Monday. The exact evolution of
the low remains of low to moderate confidence at this point,
slightly improved over yesterday`s 12z guidance suite. The GFS
is still significantly faster at bringing the sfc low up to the
NE NC/SE VA coast by 12Z Sunday, while the ECMWF and CMC are
significantly slower through early Sunday, then developing a
broader sfc low offshore Sunday aftn. There does appear to be
better agreement that strong winds develop, peaking Sunday and
Sunday night/early Monday. Regardless of the track/intensity
details, there remains high confidence for significant marine
hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force for
VA-MD Ocean waters) and dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range
from 45-50 kt on the VA-MD coastal waters (where a Storm Watch
is in effect), 40-45 kt in the Chesapeake Bay and NC coastal
waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. Made very
minimal changes to the forecast beyond Monday. The gradient
finally starts to relax by mid week with improving marine
conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the 13-17 ft range (sig
wave height), with occasional waves up to 20-25 ft. Sig Waves
in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft
possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week,
so will the seas, but only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday..

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for mainly low-end minor to
nuisance flooding across the Ocean S of Wachapreague, and the
lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Outer Banks for
the upcoming high tide cycle later this morning into the aftn.

Otherwise, tidal anomalies remain fairly similar through early
Saturday, with another round of minor flooding possible during
the Saturday morning/early aftn high tide across a similar
region as the current Coastal Flood Advisory (have not extended
the current Advisory through this given that the high tide
tonight should fall well below minor levels).

Later Saturday through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase,
likely to Gale force by early Sunday, a rapid rise in anomalies
is expected (a surge increase of 1-2 ft in ~12 hrs). The high
tide cycle occurring late Sat night into early Sunday is the
lower astro tide, so even with a sharp increase, generally only
minor flooding is expected so have opted against a Coastal Flood
Watch this forecast cycle. The following high tide, occurring
around noon Sunday along the Ocean, and through the aftn
elsewhere is the anticipated time for peak water levels with
this event. Widespread moderate to locally major coastal
flooding is expected during this period from the northern Neck
southward along the west side of the Bay and into the
Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most locations
along the Ocean. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued
later today when this falls within 48 hrs of onset. The highest
probs for achieving Major flood thresholds will be Va Beach, and
the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up the James
river. Precise water levels will be highly dependent on the
track of the low and the associated wind direction, but there is
high confidence at seeing at least Moderate flooding. Additional
flooding is likely into Monday, though this becomes more
uncertain given timing differences with the sfc low lifting NE
of the region (with a NW low level flow leading to falling water
levels).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT
     this afternoon for VAZ093-095>098-100-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-
     652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ650.
     Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...