157
FXUS61 KAKQ 151457
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1057 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger across southern Virginia today,
acting as a focus for showers and thunderstorms, and additional
rounds of heavy rain later this afternoon into tonight. Somewhat
lower rain chances are expected Monday, though unsettled conditions
continue through Tuesday. An upper level ridge expands northward
by the middle of next week, bringing hot weather with lower rain
chances Wednesday, followed by hot conditions Thursday, with
scattered showers and storms as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of southern and
  southeastern VA and northeast NC through late tonight.

- A Marginal Risk for severe weather is forecast for today as a few
isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds being the
primary threat, but all threats are possible.

The latest WX analysis shows a frontal boundary nearly
stationary across southern VA (slowly starting to push back NE
as a warm front across south-central VA).Partial clearing is
seen on satellite imagery from just S of Farmville to Emporia
and into interior NE NC. To the NE of the boundary, a relatively
cool and moist airmass is in place with poor low level lapse
rates. Within the partial clearing, mesoanalysis indicates ML
CAPE ~1000 J/Kg (and sf-based CAPE ~1500 J/Kg, with lower
amounts to the N and E.

The bulk of the CAMs show the boundary lifting back slightly to
the NE through the aftn given SW flow aloft as the next
shortwave (currently across ern KY/TN and WV), tracks into the
local area. The placement of the boundary will be crucial for
the location of the highest rainfall totals. If the front hangs
up closer to the coast, metro Norfolk could potentially see
lower rain totals, with higher amounts shifted a bit to the
west, while southern portions of metro RIC could see higher rain
totals. The 12Z HRRR hints at this possibility, but there is by
no means a solid consensus. Will continue to monitor trends for
now and could add some portions of central VA into the current
Flood Watch that remains in effect for southern VA and NE NC,
especially if there is more consensus from the 12Z HREF (not
yet available). Will note the metro RIC did not receive that
much rainfall yesterday, so FFG outside of the highly urban
locations is not as compromised compared to areas farther south
as well as metro Norfolk. The main timing for the heavy rain
looks like mid/late aftn through the evening. Current
deterministic QPF forecast through tonight is for 2-3" across
most of the area in the Watch (1-2" on the northern tier of
counties). As is typically the case, locally higher amounts are
possible in areas of training storms.

A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe weather is also forecasted
for portions of the area today, as there is slightly stronger
flow aloft, though any severe storms will be confined to areas
along and S/SW of the front, with just elevated convection to
the N/NE (and probably no tstms for NE portions of the FA). The
primary threat will be damaging winds, however all threats are
possible (lower confidence in tornadoes as well as large hail
given poor mid level lapse rates <6C/Km). While the Marginal
Risk extends all the way to near Louisa and even areas a bit to
the ENE of Richmond, the greatest threat will tend to be from
south central/interior SE VA along and S of state route 460 and
south into NE NC where instability and at least low level lapse
rates will be more favorable.

Temperatures are very cool on the ern shore, in the upper 60s to
around 70F, while they are now into the lower 80s for south
central VA and interior NE NC (with highs there expected to
rise into the upper 80s). Rain tapers off after midnight,
lingering a few hrs longer along the coast. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s N to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Monday-Tuesday.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday, and even into Tuesday. Areas
along and S/SW of I-64 are in a Marginal ERO Monday, given the
frontal boundary still quasi stationary over the region with
additional shortwaves moving through the westerly flow aloft. PoPS
Monday remain the highest in the afternoon and evening (50-70%) for
the southern half of the CWA. Highs Monday will be below avg,
generally in the 70s for northern and central zones, with low-mid
80s across the south. With an upper trough still off to our W on
Tuesday, additional showers/tstms are again expected, with high chc
to likely PoPs once again. It will tend to turn warmer Tuesday with
highs in the lower 80s in the Eastern Shore to upper 80s for
portions of south central VA and NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures
trending back above normal by mid to late week.

Upper level ridging over the SE US coast will expand into the
region, bringing near-climo precip, and hot temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday. Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 18-20C Thursday,
which would support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with
continued moderate to high humidity. Heat indices will be the
highest on Thursday, likely above 100F, possibly close to headline
criteria in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is
not high). Latest ensemble guidance continues to support an upper
level trough pushing a cold front through the region
Thursday/Friday, which should help Friday and Saturday be drier.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

CIGs have deteriorated to low-end MVFR to IFR at area terminals
this morning, with LCL LIFR in low stratus. There is some patchy
fog out in the piedmont, but mainly just the low CIGs. Those
CIGS will partially recover by mid to late morning, lifting to
MVFR by 14-15z this morning and will remain there through this
evening.

Convection is expected to resume by 18-20z this afternoon. Once
again, there is uncertainty in the evolution of afternoon
storms, so have decided to include a PROB30 for -TSRA at all
terminals save for SBY to account for the the possibility of
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected tomorrow.
The challenge will be exactly where storms develop and when, so
details of become a little more clear and confidence increases,
we will likely include TEMPOs to capture the convection as we
get closer.

Outlook: Some additional late night/early morning stratus and
patchy fog/MIFG are likely to begin Monday. Scattered to
numerous (mainly) aftn/evening showers/tstms are again expected
Monday, bringing localized flight restrictions in heavy rain and
gusty winds. Rain chances remain a bit elevated Tue, then
diminish Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week outside of
convection.

A stationary front slowly drops south today before stalling near the
VA/NC state border late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions prevail
with benign marine conditions. Seas are mainly between 2 to 3 ft
(northern coastal waters 3 to 4 ft), with 1 ft waves in the
Ches. Bay. Winds are currently E in the northern waters and bay,
and W in the southern waters, as the front lays over the
coastal waters. Seas are expected to remain relatively similar
to current heights throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely across the waters today, with SMWs possible to
handle any strong winds. The front gradually washes out next
week, with a more S/SW flow again by Tuesday, with sub-SCA
conditions continuing.

Rip currents risk is moderate N and low S today and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ060-065>068-079-080-
     087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC