203
FXUS61 KAKQ 011842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches late this week with slightly warmer
temperatures and a chance for showers. A stronger cold front
crosses the area late Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Another night in the 50s away from the coast with diminishing
  winds.

Afternoon wx analysis shows sfc high pressure centered over the
eastern Great Lakes/New England ridging south toward the area. Deep
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS, with an upper shortwave
just offshore of NY/NJ moving northward on the east side of the
trough. Very nice wx continues with partly cloudy skies,
temperatures in the 70s, and dew pts in the 50s-lower 60s. Still a
bit breezy from the NE near the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph due to
the gradient between the high to our N/NE and weak low pressure
offshore. It should remain mostly dry through tonight although there
is a nonzero chc of a very brief light shower in far SE VA/NE NC
between now-8 PM. Have seen a few light showers on radar this
afternoon. Clouds thin out this evening with low temps falling back
into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few spots may
be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be light with less
cloud cover expected away from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday
  as high pressure moves offshore. There is a slight chance for
  showers near the coast on Tuesday, but confidence is low.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible late Thursday, mainly
  across north and northwest portions of the area.

The pleasant wx continues on Tuesday. Will note that a slightly more
moist maritime airmass tries to push inland from the ocean, but
likely struggles to make it much past the bay. There will be a weak,
but noticeable gradient in theta-e across the area as a result.
While Tuesday will be very similar to today in terms of
temperatures, isolated showers are possible near the bay/coast. CAMs
(especially the HRRR which has a few pockets of 0.50" QPFs) have
trended upward a bit in terms of shower coverage tomorrow. Not that
confident that we`ll actually see much of any precip, but added 20%
PoPs to the forecast near the bay/coast to account for the
possibility. Precip chances drop to near zero by sunset. Not quite
as cool Tuesday night with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure shifts offshore and
winds swing around to the E-SE. Afternoon highs are expected to
mainly be in the low 80s with dew points in the mid 50s to lower
60s. 12z guidance remains in good agreement keeping the entire area
dry Wednesday/Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight
lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low
60s. Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes drags a cold front
toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger
showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs
of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south.
Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the
eastern shore) with a modest increase in humidity as dew points
creep back into the low and mid 60s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with
  highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

- There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday/Monday.

The chance for showers increases Thursday night, especially across
the northern half of the area as the weakening front pushes toward
the FA. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to
perhaps a quarter inch of precip. There is very high confidence that
the initial front washes out across the region with winds remaining
S or SW into Saturday. As such, not expecting an airmass change or
even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs
are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew
points. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the period ahead of
a stronger front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs
range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture
looks to be lacking with this front as well, but there is a slight
chc for tstms Saturday aftn-late Saturday evening (highest E/SE).
The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a
return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/01 TAF period.
SCT-BKN cumulus (3500-5000 ft AGL) will prevail through this
evening before clouds thin out tonight. Tuesday will be similar
to today with SCT-BKN cumulus from late morning-early evening.
There is a 20% chc of showers at SBY/ORF/ECG during the day, but
won`t mention any precip in the TAFs given PoPs/confidence are
very low. Gusty NE winds (to ~20 kt) will continue near the
coast through early evening before diminishing to 5-10 kt
tonight. Lighter NE winds are expected on Tue.

Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for
isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at
RIC/SBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the coastal
  waters and the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay today into
  Tuesday.

- A period of elevated southerly winds is possible late Thursday afternoon
  into early Thursday night across the Chesapeake Bay and
  northern coastal waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
  possible.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues into Tuesday across the southern
  beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches.

Afternoon sfc analysis depicted a weak area of low pressure located
well offshore. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure was located
across the Great Lakes and New England. The pressure gradient
between the two features has resulted in elevated NE winds over the
waters. Winds were 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the rivers
and Ches Bay and 15-20 kt across the coastal waters and Currituck
Sound. Given that sustained winds have dropped below 15-20 kt across
the Ches Bay and Lower James River, have canceled the SCAs for most
of these areas. The exception is the Mouth of the Ches Bay where 3-4
ft waves will continue to be possible into this evening. SCAs have
also been cancelled across the MD coastal waters given seas below 5
ft. Otherwise, SCAs remain in effect until 7 PM this evening for the
VA coastal waters between Chincoteague and Cape Charles Light and
the Currituck Sound, 7 AM Tue for the VA coastal waters between Cape
Charles Light and the VA/NC border, and 7 PM Tue for the NC coastal
waters.

High pressure remains in place through Wednesday, slowly building
south with time. As such, expect NE winds to gradually diminish to
10-15 kt tonight and 5-10 kt by Tuesday evening. Winds remain light
through early Thursday before becoming SE/S and increasing to 15-20
kt with gusts up to 25 kt late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night across mainly the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters ahead
of an approaching cold front. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds
were 45-65% across most of the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters
with locally up to 80% probs across the upper bay. As such, SCAs may
be needed for this surge. Will note that elevated winds will also
overspread the rivers, however, confidence in SCA conditions over
the rivers is lower than over the Ches Bay. Otherwise, winds remain
generally sub-SCA through next weekend with a brief S surge to
15- 20 kt possible Fri evening. A series of weak cold fronts
approach the local waters late this week into this weekend with
the strongest front crossing the local waters Saturday night.
Winds shift to N Saturday night, becoming NE Monday. A period of
elevated NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt is
possible Mon across the southern coastal waters, however,
confidence is low at this time.

Waves were 1-3 ft across most of the Ches Bay with 3-4 ft waves
across the mouth of the Ches Bay this afternoon. Waves subside to 1-
2 ft Tuesday with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay. Meanwhile,
seas were 4-5 ft this afternoon. Seas subside to ~4 ft Tue (apart
from 4-5 ft across the NC coastal waters), likely remaining sub-SCA
through next weekend.

The rip current risk remains High for the southern beaches through
Wed with a Moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches.
Will note that the high rip current risk across the southern beaches
on Wednesday is more marginal than today and Tuesday. Otherwise, a
Moderate rip current risk is expected across all area beaches on
Thursday.


&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average
Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below:

- RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992.
- SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008.
- ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...AKQ