186
FXUS61 KAKQ 151041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
641 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will clear the local area this morning. Dry with
seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a very
warm to hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees cooler with pleasant humidity today and tonight.

Surface low pressure is now well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast
as 1020mb high pressure over the Great Lakes builds eastward this
morning. Aloft, there is a trough axis over New England with a
building upper ridge over the central Gulf Coast.

The surface cold front is dropping southward across the region early
this morning with winds becoming northerly behind the boundary.
Influx of cooler/drier air will result in breezy conditions today,
especially near the coast. Skies should clear out from NW to SE this
morning with a pleasant afternoon in store. High temps range from
the mid 80s N to the upper 80s S while areas near the coast will see
low 80s. Afternoon dew points mix out into the mid 50s to low 60s.
Continued clear and cooler tonight with lows in the upper 50s NW and
low to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A bit warmer on Sunday but comfortable humidity levels continue.

- Hot conditions return on Monday but humidity remains manageable.

High pressure to the north of the local area will move offshore on
Sunday which will allow winds to transition from NE-E-SE through the
day. An upper ridge strengthens just SW of the region. Some low
level moisture moves in late in the day but afternoon heat indices
should remain close to the actual air temperatures. Highs Sunday
generally in the upper 80s with low 80s for areas closer to the
coast. Not as cool overnight with low temps in the low to mid 60s.

Upper ridge continues to build on Monday with highs rising back into
the low 90s. Onshore wind component (SE) will keep areas near the
coast a few degrees cooler, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through
  the end of the forecast period.

The aforementioned upper ridge continues to build on Tuesday with H5
heights rising to ~596 dam. Mostly sunny skies will result in highs
in the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon as the core of the upper
ridge begins to lift just north of the area. Atypical temperature
pattern will set up with the relative highest temps across the
northern half of the area. Onshore flow will also knock a few
degrees off of afternoon highs near the coast. This scenario will
persist into the mid and late week periods as an inverted upper
trough moves westward under the core of the ridge aloft. Guidance
has backed off on the chance for any precip across the southern half
of the area with this feature. High temps remain in the low/mid 90s
through the week with Friday potentially seeing more widespread mid
90s. Surface dew points are forecast to remain in the 60s which will
keep heat index values only a degree or two above the actual air
temps. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week but could
approach 70 degrees heading into next weekend as low level moisture
increases.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Satellite
shows clear skies across the region with only a few isolated
clouds in NE NC where the cold front has yet to move offshore.
Winds are N 5-10 kt behind the cold front. Winds become
somewhat gusty today, especially near the coast. Dry and clear
tonight with high pressure building into the region.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions
and mostly clear skies Sunday into early next week as high
pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will cross the waters this morning. Northerly
  winds behind the front are expected to gust to around 20 kt, with
  a 2-3 hour period of 20-25 kt gusts expected on the bay from
  this morning through midday.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  weekend into early next week.

A cold front is crossing the area early this morning and will move
south of the waters by 12z/8 AM. Winds are SW at 5-15 kt in most
areas at this hour, but will turn to the north behind the front.
There will be a brief surge behind this front with the strongest of
the winds expected to occur from sunrise through early afternoon
with gusts to around 20 kt for a few hours over most of the waters.
On the bay where water temps have warmed into the mid-upper 70s...a
brief period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible with the weak cool/dry
advection following the FROPA this morning. The latest 00z guidance
has trended upward with wind speeds, and local wind probabilities
for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 45-60% on parts of the
bay for a few hours (mainly between 7-11 AM). As such, have issued
SCAs for the bay until 17z/1 PM to account for this. Winds gradually
diminish and become NE this afternoon through tonight, with speeds
decreasing to 5-10 kt by midnight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on Sunday with E winds around 10 kt
as high pressure builds southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Winds become SE and increase to near 15 kt (w/ 15-20 kt gusts
possible) by Sunday evening as the high begins to shift offshore.
Winds are expected to be S-SE at 10-15 kt on Monday and Tuesday as
the high shifts offshore. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible during
the evening on each day.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay
through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by late
morning behind the cold front. Can`t completely rule out brief 5 ft
seas offshore of the NE NC coast today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI