510
FXUS61 KAKQ 190645
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure currently off the northern Mid Atlantic coast
slowly shifts south through the end of the week. A very warm and
dry pattern will continue this week, with very hot weather
expected this weekend with widespread mid to upper 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Relatively pleasant weather is expected today with seasonably warm
temperatures in the 80s to 90 degrees.

~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered well offshore of the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning with a 597dm upper high just
north of the local area. Very warm, dry, but pleasant wx will
prevail today with the flow increasing out of the ESE with the high
offshore. High temps top out around 90F inland with lower to mid 80s
near the immediate coast. Dew points in the 60s will result in heat
indices fairly close to actual temps. The surface and upper ridge
axis start to slowly shift south later today-tonight and will be
over the local area by early Thu AM. Lows fall into the lower-mid
60s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather with seasonably warm temperatures on Thursday.

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

Still pleasant on Thu with dry wx and seasonably warm temperatures
as the high pressure ridge remains in control. Highs will be a
couple degrees warmer on Thursday when compared to today as the
ridge axis at the sfc and aloft continues to shift southward. Temps
will top out in the lower 90s with relatively low dew points in the
low-mid 60s.

The heat will start to build on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge
axis shift to our south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently
over the Ohio Valley to move over the middle Atlantic. Winds become
more southerly across inland areas on Friday, while remaining SSE
near the immediate coast. Forecast highs are in the mid 90s in
central VA with upper 80s-lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE
NC. Dew points will be a little bit higher on Fri (mid 60s) but max
heat indices should remain a few degrees below 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Building heat through the weekend with dangerous heat index values
approaching 105F or greater by Sunday.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered
showers or storms on Sun night into Tuesday, but the confidence in
widespread rainfall remains low.

The main story this weekend will be the heat as the ridge axis
becomes more suppressed to our south and the low-level flow becomes
SSW area-wide, which will lead to even warmer 850mb temps/low-level
thicknesses. Highs on Saturday will make a run at 100F inland, while
Sunday looks to be the hottest day of the period with forecast highs
around 100F across central VA with mid-upper 90s near the coast.
While the recent dry weather will help to keep dew pts a bit lower
than they could be (mid 60s-lower 70s), heat index values of 100-
105F are still expected on Sat with more widespread 105F+ heat
indices possible on Sunday. In addition, WBGT values will be in the
85-88F range on both days. These conditions will likely warrant a
Heat Advisory for much of the area this weekend. Other than a chance
for isolated to widely scattered tstms Sun evening-Sun night, the
dry wx will continue. Confidence for temps on Monday is lower than
the weekend due to the potential for scattered tstms (mainly during
the latter part of the day) and more clouds as a weakening frontal
system approaches. Highs Monday will most likely be a few degrees
lower than they will be on Sunday. Still seasonably hot with lower
precip chances on Tuesday as the weakening front washes out
near/over the area.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not
look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see
little to no rain through the period. In fact, 01z NBM
probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun-Tue
are only 10-40% over the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours and
beyond. Skies will be clear for most of the morning before
becoming partly to mostly sunny with cumulus (~5000 ft AGL).
Expect winds to become ESE/SE 5-10 kt (~10 kt closer to the
coast) today. Mainly clear tonight with light/variable winds.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday
as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through most of this week. A few
gusts to 20 kt again possible in the Chesapeake Bay later this
afternoon and evening.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches today.

Light SE flow this morning of 5-10 kt. The pattern through most of
this week will be typical of summer and relatively benign as high
pressure remains offshore. Winds for the daylight hours today will
remain out of the ESE/SE at ~10 kt. Similar to the previous few
days, we will likely see some enhancement to 10-15 kt (with a few
gusts to 20 kt) in the lower Chesapeake Bay and over area rivers
late this afternoon and evening as sea breezes become established.
Very similar conditions Thursday. Winds shift to and become
predominantly southerly later Friday into Saturday as the high
offshore meanders south and anchors SE of the area. More robust
southerly winds potentially develop Saturday evening/overnight and
especially Sunday-Sunday night as a trough of low pressure
approaches the area from the NW. At this time, small craft
advisories look like a decent bet for most of the waters during this
period due to both winds and seas. Winds slowly subside early next
week behind the associated cold front.

Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1 ft or less this morning. Waves in the
lower bay increase to ~2 ft this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, seas
and waves of ~3 ft and 1-2 ft are forecast through Saturday,
respectively. With the increased southerly flow Sunday and Sunday
night, seas are expected to build, especially across the northern
waters. Current forecast shows 4-6 ft N and 3-4 ft S.

Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today with SE swell
energy and 2-3 ft nearshore waves. Periods increase to around 8 sec
Thursday with waves at the beaches remaining around 3 ft, suggesting
a continuing moderate rip risk. An elevated rip risk likely
continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat across the
north).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MRD
LONG TERM...ERI/MRD
AVIATION...ERI/RMM
MARINE...SW