532
FXUS61 KAKQ 290526
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
126 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding
offshore late today through late week. Continued dry and very
pleasant conditions to the region are expected with below
average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant afternoon with temps in the upper 70s. Cool overnight
  with lows generally in the 50s.

Sfc high pressure remains in place over the FA. Aloft, a broad
trough sits over the eastern half of the CONUS and dips down
nearly to Florida. Satellite imagery shows scattered cu has
mostly dissipated across the area. Cooler autumn like weather
continues with the latest obs indicating temps in the mid 70s.
Tonight should be similar to the last couple of nights with
temps cooling off quickly and lows in the mid 50s for most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry, comfortable weather with low humidity and below average
  temps are expected Fri-Sat.

The strong UL trough remains in place through Saturday. At the sfc,
a mostly dry cold front will pass through the local area Friday
evening through Saturday. Behind it, another area of cool high
pressure from central Canada builds in. Temps on Fri will be a touch
warmer than the last couple of days with highs in the low to mid
80s. Still relatively dry as well with RHs in the 40s in the
afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies in the morning, then scattered
cloud cover in the afternoon as the cold front approaches. Lows Fri
night range between the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE.
Another pleasant day on Saturday with skies clearing behind the
front. Highs will be in the upper 70s-low 80s. Cannot completely
rule out a stray shower or two in the SE, though chances are low
given there will not be much of a moisture return ahead of the
front. Lows Sat night in the 50s inland, 60s closer to the
water.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a
  mainly dry weather pattern also to persist into the Labor Day
  holiday and early next week

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through
early next week as high pressure remains in control at the sfc and
the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for rain
outside of a stray shower looks like it would be mid to late week
next week with a frontal passage and/or coastal low pressure (still
unclear at this point). Temps will be generally the same Sun-Wed
with highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows in the mid-upper
50s inland and low-mid 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR flying weather prevails through the 06z TAF period. Some mid
level clouds noted across NC early this morning but not expected
to impact the TAF sites. Light and variable winds this morning
become WNW 5-10 kt late morning into the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show enough moisture at the top of the mixed layer for
FEW/SCT CU this afternoon.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

- High pressure prevails the remainder of the week with another
  frontal passage late Friday into early Saturday.

- A prolonged period of modest onshore flow is possible
  beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next
  week.

High pressure is centered immediately offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast this afternoon. The wind is primarily S 10-15kt
with ~2ft seas and 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Clouds that
produced waterspouts near the coast of Ocean City and Assateague
have dissipated. However, some showers farther off the MD coast
may produce waterspouts over the next 1-2hrs. High pressure
slides farther offshore tonight with the wind becoming S to SW
10-15kt with occasional gusts to ~20kt over the Ches. Bay and
northern coastal waters due to a modest tightening of the
pressure gradient. Local wind probs are very minimal for
sustained 18kt and do not support SCAs in the Ches. Bay. A cold
front is expected to cross the coast later Friday into early
Saturday. Timing has improved in the model guidance and there is
still a hint of a weak surface wave along the boundary. Most
guidance is sub-SCA. However, a modest increase in a NNE wind is
likely early Saturday. Seas/waves should remain 2-3ft/1- 2ft
late week into early next weekend, although a brief increase to
2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay is possible early Saturday. 28/12z
guidance continues to show high pressure building farther S with
weaker onshore flow later in the weekend into the middle of
next week. Regardless, persistent ENE onshore flow could result
in building seas, primarily S of Cape Henry.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC/KMC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ