828
FXUS61 KAKQ 141436
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1036 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1036 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through late tonight for most of our VA
  counties just inland of the Chesapeake Bay.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the convection this
  afternoon and evening.

Fog and low stratus has mostly lifted across the area and GOES
Visible imagery is highlighting a CU field attempting to develop.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s, with humid dew points in the
lower to mid 70s. Mesoanalysis is depicting 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
and an already increasingly unstable environment developing this
morning.

The unsettled pattern will continue today, with a similar
environment to the past few days featuring ample instability,
minimal inhibition, and anomalously high PW values. Shear will
continue to be a limiting factor though with strong daytime heating
preceding storm development, DCAPE values will range between 700-
1200 J/kg which could result in isolated downbursts. With the
steering flow being almost non-existent, the main threat will be
flash-flooding. Slow moving storms, combined with PW values of 2"+,
will lead to extended periods of heavy rainfall for localized areas
across our forecast area. The challenge is pinpointing exactly where
any diurnal storm development will take place. With the antecedent
rainfall we have seen over the past few days, flash-flood guidance
continues to be lower, especially in more vulnerable areas such as
the Richmond metro and adjacent areas, so it will not take much
rainfall to lead to flooding. In addition to the diurnal convection
similar to what we have seen the past few days, a weak shortwave
will move across the area just to our north. CAMs have picked up on
this and a second round of storms is possible tonight before
midnight. As this is a transient feature, these storms will likely
not be quite as stagnant as the daytime storms and be more linear
and organized, but will still bring very heavy rainfall to the area
that could produce additional flooding concerns. Exactly how the
second round of storms develops and moves through will be dependent
on how the afternoon convection evolves and how much the
atmosphere can recover in its wake. WPC has placed a majority
of our forecast area in a Slight ERO today, and scattered
instances of flash- flooding are possible. A Marginal ERO is in
place across far SE VA and eastern North Carolina.

Convection will taper off after midnight after the secondary line of
storms move through. Overnight temperatures will drop into the lower
to mid 70s. The development of patchy fog is again a possibility
overnight, and areas that receive rainfall today may see areas of
dense fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday with
  additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls
  NW of the area.

The front stalls well NW of the area on Tuesday, with yet another
day of showers and storms and the potential for heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. More clouds through the day result in cooler high
temps, generally in the mid 80s inland with upper 80s along the
coast. Highest PoPs are favored over the Piedmont, tapering to
chance along the coast. WPC has the region in a marginal ERO for
Tuesday at the moment but would not be surprised to see a slight ERO
expanded eastward into the local area in subsequent forecasts.
Anomalously high PWATs remain in place but lack of a low level
trigger for convection and slowly rising heights aloft lends some
uncertainty to convective coverage and timing. That said, it won`t
take much QPF to cause flooding in areas that have been drenched
over the last few days.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday with a bit more flow
aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a short wave in
the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. No real
changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around
2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds
persists.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Upper ridging east of Florida builds northward into our area
Thursday into the weekend. Lower shower and storm chances are
forecast as heights aloft continue to build. Will maintain chance
PoPs during this period but expect convective coverage will be much
less than earlier in the week. Temperatures warm back into the low
90s Thursday and mid 90s by Friday. Afternoon heat indices creep
back into Heat Advisory range (105+) mainly for the eastern half of
the area on Thursday and a majority of the area on Friday. Slightly
cooler (low 90s) on Saturday and Sunday but low level moisture ticks
up so additional heat headlines are possible, especially across the
south.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

Complicated aviation forecast this morning with a mix of flying
condition across the region. TAF sites are all VFR for now but
expect MVFR and IFR to overspread the area in the next few
hours. Highest confidence in IFR CIGs is at RIC. ORF and ECG
have prevailing MVFR with TEMPO groups to cover IFR toward
sunrise. Light and variable winds this morning become S or SE
into this afternoon. Another round of showers and storms are
likely this afternoon and evening. Included PROB30 groups at
each terminal this afternoon. Another round of precip is also
possible after 00z tonight but lower confidence in timing and
location.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Tue-Wed, along with the
potential for early morning fog/stratus. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of
  local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night
  into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower
  James River.

High pressure is centered off the coast of Nova Scotia early this
morning, with weak low pressure and a trailing front well off the
MD/VA coast. Meanwhile, subtropical high pressure is centered S of
this front, with a trough lingering well inland. The wind is
primarily SE 5-10kt with seas 1-2ft and waves in the Ches. Bay ~1ft.
The subtropical high builds off the Southeast coast today through
the middle of the week. The wind becomes SSE and remains 5-10kt
through early aftn, before increasing to 10-15kt by mid-aftn to
early evening, and then becomes SW 5-10kt tonight. Seas remain ~2ft
today into tonight, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 1-2ft
this aftn and evening, before subsiding to ~1ft later tonight.
Similar conditions continue Tuesday with a mid-aftn to early evening
sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE 10-15kt, before becoming SW 8-
12kt Tuesday night. The wind will mainly be SSW 10-15kt Wednesday
with high pressure continuing to prevail offshore. Seas remain ~2ft
Tuesday and build to 2-3ft Wednesday, with waves in the Ches. Bay
1ft to occasionally 2ft. The pressure gradient tightens Wednesday
night into Thursday as low pressure tracks NE of the Great Lakes
into the St. Lawrence Valley. This will potentially bring SCA
conditions as a SW wind increases to 15-20kt across the Ches. Bay
and lower James. The wind diminishes by Friday as the pressure
gradient relaxes due to a weakening front dropping to the region.
Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday night and
Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Isolated to scattered aftn/evening showers/tstms will continue much
of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind
gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ