693
FXUS61 KAKQ 180006
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
806 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lifts through the region today as it washes
out. An upper level ridge expands northward Wednesday, leading
to hot weather with lower rain chances Wednesday, followed by
hot conditions Thursday, with scattered showers and storms as
the next cold front approaches. Mainly dry for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Threat for showers and storms this evening has decreased
  substantially. Expect dry conditions will prevail through
  the area tonight.

Recent guidance has really backed off on the potential for
widespread showers and storms across the region this evening and
tonight. Satellite shows some scattered clouds over much of the
area with thicker clouds hanging on for the MD Eastern Shore.
High-res guidance shows increasing potential for fog and low
stratus in this area this evening and especially tonight so have
added some fog to the forecast. Fog and stratus may linger into
mid morning for areas near Ocean City before scattering out.
Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy to mostly clear conditions
tonight. Low temperatures fall into the upper 60s to low 70s for
most of the area with a few mid 70s expected near the
bay/coast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible
  in the SE both days.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
  night. A Slight Risk is in place for much of the region for
  Thursday.

SW flow aloft is maintained Wed, though a weakening trough will
approach from the west. The trough/weak shortwave energy should
be enough to trigger scattered afternoon thunderstorms. These should
generally be limited to areas north of a Farmville to Ocean
City line, though cannot rule out isolated storms elsewhere.
Will note that SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk over the
Eastern Shore for tomorrow with the threat being damaging wind
gusts. Storms should wrap up with the loss of day-time heating.
There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the
region. With high heat and humidity in place, ample instability
is expected along and ahead of a cold front. In addition, model
mid-level lapse rates are currently showing values ~6-6.5 C/Km
by 00z, along with bulk shear values of 30-40kt. SPC has
outlooked most of the area from Ahoskie to Norfolk NNW in a day
3 Slight Risk. Expectation at this time is a more organized
linear, outflow-driven storm mode with damaging winds and large
hail as the primary threats. Best guess timing is 4pm through
about midnight through the area, but timing is still subject to
some adjustment later in time given the progress of the frontal
passage.

The other weather item of note for the short term will be the
building heat. As the previously referenced upper-level ridge
lifts north across the east coast, summer-like heat will come
with it. Highs Wednesday rise into the low- mid 90s for most of
the area. Heat indices will be 100-105 for areas E of I-95.
There is the potential for adding far SE counties to a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow, but with peak heat indices right around
105F and only for a couple of hours, have held off for now.
Given the pattern, and with the recent wet spell, have kept
high temperatures both Wed and Thu on the "cooler" edge of
guidance, but with dew pts at or slightly higher than MOS
numbers (but a bit lower than NBM). Thurs Heat indices will be
similar to Wed with advisories once again possible in the far
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- After a brief modest cool down on Friday, temperatures ramp
  back up over the weekend into early next week. Summer heat and
  moderate humidity levels expected Sunday through the middle of
  next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for (at
  least) portions of the area.

After the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures will
briefly "reprieve" from the excessive heat on Friday. The shortwave
will start to move offshore, but NW flow aloft will linger through
the day on Friday. As the shortwave clears the coast and moves
further offshore during the day, cloudy cover will start to clear
from NW to SE. This clearing will still allow temperatures to reach
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Dew points will drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which will still lead to toasty heat indices
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but not expecting any heat headlines
for Friday at this time. Friday night into Saturday, an expansive
500 mb ridge will gradually move from the southern Plains towards
the Mid-Atlantic region. Rapid height rises are expected through
Sunday as this almost 600 dm high plants itself over the East Coast
through mid-next week. While we have been looking forward to a few
rain-free days, it will come with a cost. Temperatures will soar
into the mid-upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday, with inland areas
nearing 100 degrees. Dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, so
heat indices will reach 100 degrees each afternoon and could be
flirting with Excessive Heat Warning Criteria next Tuesday if the
forecast holds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail over most of the area early this evening.
Stubborn low stratus continues to hang on for the MD Eastern
Shore (including SBY). Guidance suggests IFR CIGs will expand in
this area by mid to late evening with IFR CIGs/VSBY likely
after 03z at SBY. Winds will generally be light and variable
this evening/tonight before becoming SW and increasing to 10-15
kt with gusts 15-20 kt mid morning into the afternoon. Soundings
show some moisture at the top of the mixed layer so FEW/SCT CU
with bases 4-5kft have been included. Some isolated convection
is possible tomorrow afternoon but confidence in coverage and
timing is too low to mention at this time.

Outlook: Late day and evening convection is possible on Thursday
as a cold front crosses the region. Very warm, dry, with VFR
conditions for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 610 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign marine conditions continue throughout Wednesday
  afternoon.

- SW winds increase by Wednesday night potentially bringing SCA
  conditions across the Bay.

A warm front is draped across NW VA through SE VA, with surface
winds generally southwest to west south of the front and east to
southeast north of the front though some areas are seeing sea
breezes which may also be influencing the direction. The high in the
western North Atlantic has been suppressed south of Bermuda, and an
area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes. Due to the weak
gradient across the region, wind speeds range from 5-10 knots, with
seas 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves of around 1 ft in the
Bay. The marine Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled as
visibility has improved. However, visibility potentially falls
once again overnight.

Benign marine conditions are expected tonight through tomorrow
morning, though an increase in winds is forecast overnight to around
10-15 kts in the Bay and coastal waters as an area of low pressure
develops to the west and the gradient tightens between this feature
and the aforementioned high in the western North Atlantic. Winds
will also shift to the southwest. Through the day tomorrow, winds
will continue to increase as a front associated with the developing
low traverses eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, further tightening
the gradient. Marginal SCA conditions in the Bay are possible
tomorrow night through Thursday night. A few global models are
suggesting stronger winds than are currently forecast especially
across the coastal waters, so we will adjust wind speeds as
necessary over the next few forecast cycles pending forecast
trends. Waves will reach 2-3 ft in the Bay and seas will build
to 3-4 ft in the coastal waters. After the front moves through
Thursday night, high pressure will build in across the area, and
winds will drop in response. Sub-SCA conditions will continue
through at least mid- next week with winds generally remaining
at 10 kts or less and seas of around 2 ft in the coastal waters
and waves of ~1 ft in the Bay.

As flow becomes offshore tonight, the rip current risk will decrease
to low at all beaches tomorrow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With onshore flow being lighter today then becoming southwest
overnight, the risk for minor coastal flooding in the upper Bay
and tidal portions of the Rappahannock/Potomac Rivers has
diminished. The Coastal Flood Statement has been cancelled.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/HET/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...