008
FXUS61 KAKQ 222327
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
727 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Large waves, coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents will
continue into the weekend. Dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures are expected tonight and Saturday, with a few
showers and storms Sunday and Monday as a cold front approaches
the area. Dry with below normal temperatures for the rest of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant with lower humidity and mostly clear skies tonight.

Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the area as
high pressure settles over the region. Dew points have fallen
into the upper 50s to low 60s and are expected to continue to
drop off overnight. Very comfortable tonight with mostly clear
skies and light winds. Low temps generally within a degree or
two of 60F inland, slightly warmer near the coast with low to
mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and warm Saturday.

- A few showers and storms possible by Sunday.

The center of sfc high pressure should be offshore to the NE by
Saturday morning and will continue to slide away through the day. As
this occurs, sfc flow becomes southeasterly. This will allow for a
moisture return with dew points rising back into the mid 60s by
Saturday evening. Skies will be partly cloudy with perhaps some
thicker cloud cover over NE NC. Highs will be in the low-mid 80s.
Light onshore winds become a bit breezy near the water in the
afternoon and evening. Lows Sat night will be in the low-mid 60s
inland and upper 60s-low 70s at the coast.

Heading into Sunday, an UL trough dipping into the Great Lakes
region will aid in pushing a sfc cold front towards the local area.
Meanwhile at the coast, a weak low pressure will form to the SE then
slide northeastward. Despite both of these features, guidance
continues to trend drier. Now only anticipating a 15-30% chance for
showers along and W of I-95 and 20-40% in Hampton Roads and NE NC.
Central portions of the area may not see any precip. However, it
will still be mostly cloudy/overcast across the entire area. Not
expecting much in the way of thunder due to limited instability.
Highs on Sun once again in the low-mid 80s. The cold front looks to
cross the FA Sun night into early Mon. Lows Sun night will be in the
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Low-end precipitation chances continue on Monday, mainly near
  the coast.

- Very nice next week with sunny skies and comfortable
  temperatures and humidity.

All signs point to ending August on an autumnal, pumpkin spice
flavored, note. Strong sfc high pressure from central Canada builds
toward the eastern CONUS. There is also pretty good agreement
between global models that a deep trough dips in overhead and
remains more or less in place through the rest of the week. The sfc
high will bring in dry air and result dewpoints as low as the upper
40s by mid-week. Not expecting much in the way of precip, either,
except a stray shower Monday afternoon as that front is kicked
offshore. Monday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in
the mid 80s, followed by upper 70s and low 80s the rest of the week.
Lows will generally be in the mid 50s inland and low 60s in the
east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. ENE winds
5-10 kt currently but become light and variable tonight. SE
winds 5-10 kt are expected on Saturday. Forecast soundings show
some moisture at the top of the mixed layer by late morning into
the afternoon so will likely see FEW/SCT CU around 5kft
Saturday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions prevail through Saturday night.
A chc of showers/tstms returns Sunday and Monday ahead of and
along a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters through
  Saturday night due to lingering elevated seas. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay until 4
 PM and for the mouth of the bay until 1 AM tonight.

- A High Risk for Rip Currents continues through the weekend due
  to a combination of lingering large seas and high period
  swell from Hurricane Erin.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected next week as
  cool high pressure builds in.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted Hurricane Erin continuing to
move NE well offshore. N winds have remained elevated longer than
model guidance suggested with winds 10-18 kt gusting to 20 kt early
this afternoon. However, model guidance depicts winds diminishing
and becoming NE this afternoon. That being said, waves were 3-4 ft
across the lower bay. As such, have extended SCAs for the lower bay
until 4 PM and for the mouth of the bay until 1 AM tonight. Winds
become E this evening around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 15-20 kt.
Will note that there is the potential for a brief surge this evening
with a few gusts up to 20 kt, however, confidence is not high enough
to warrant a SCA.

High pressure centers over the local waters on Sat before moving
offshore. This will allow for winds to remain E 5-10 kt Sat morning,
becoming SE 10-15 kt by late Sat afternoon. Will note that a weak
surface low may form along a stationary front across the coastal
Carolinas on Sun, potentially allowing for a brief increase in winds
to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the S coastal waters and
potentially the lower bay on Sun. A cold front moves across the
local waters late Sun night into Mon, allowing for a wind shift to
the NW/N. However, winds remain generally light at 5-15 kt. A brief
period of near SCA conditions is possible late Mon night across the
lower Ches Bay, however, confidence is low at this time. Generally
benign marine conditions then continue for next week as a strong
area of high pressure moves into the area.

Seas have been slow to subside given long period swell still coming
in from the storm offshore. Seas this afternoon were 6-10 ft across
the coastal waters. Expect nearshore waves to gradually diminish to
6-7 ft by this evening, allowing High Surf Advisories to come down
at 6 PM. However, seas over the coastal waters remain elevated
through Sat night and potentially into Sun. As such, SCAs for the
coastal waters remain in effect through Sat night with SCAs
potentially needing to be extended into a portion of Sun.

Rip Currents: With lingering long-period (12-13s) swells and
nearshore breaking waves of 4-5 feet Sat and 4 feet Sun, dangerous
swimming conditions and high risk of rip currents will continue into
the weekend. Long-period swell and an elevated rip current risk will
likely continue into next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

Tidal anomalies in the lower bay and along the Atlantic coast
continue to hold steady or drop slightly into this evening
before gradually lowering. Another round of widespread moderate
flooding is anticipated at most gauges in the middle and upper
bay, with moderate to locally major flooding forecast for some
gauges for coastal communities along the middle and upper
Chesapeake Bay (middle peninsula and northern neck, bay side of
the Eastern Shore) and in the Lynnhaven vicinity of VA Beach.
Coastal Flood Warnings continue through tonight for the middle
and upper Chesapeake Bay, including areas adjacent to the tidal
Rappahannock river, and the Atlantic Coast. While the last high
tide underperformed, have opted to continue the Coastal Flood
Warnings for the lower bay due to the potential for Jamestown
and Lynnhaven to reach to reach near moderate flood state
(within 0.05-0.1 feet). However, will note that the tidal York
will likely peak at minor flood stage. Tidal anomalies fall by
this evening with nuisance to minor coastal flooding possible
across the lower bay beyond this evening`s high tide.

Beyond this upcoming tide cycle, there could be a few high tide
cycles that experience minor or moderate flooding (mainly
across the upper bay) as the high anomalies from Erin`s swell
lingers, and there is the potential that the upper Bay could see
additional flooding during high tide cycles lingering into
Sunday.

Additionally, additional instances of minor to locally moderate
beach erosion are likely today due to the extended duration of
the large, breaking waves. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for
nearshore breaking waves of 5-8 ft through this afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ098>100.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078-
     083>086-518-520>522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ082-089-
     090-093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...