966
FXUS61 KAKQ 260142
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
842 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system brings a chance for some light showers this
evening, with more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
possible tonight. Lingering showers are possible on Wednesday as
well, with cooler and drier conditions returning Wednesday
night behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier conditions will
persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 840 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers are likely across most of the area after midnight
  tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore this
evening, while to the west, a dampening mid-level trough
continues to slide east from the eastern TN Valley toward the
local area. The attendant surface low was analyzed over the
lower OH valley, with a warm front extending just north of the
local area. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching from
the west ahead of a strong trough and low pressure system moving
through the mid-MS valley into the Great Lakes Region. Each of
these systems will have an impact on our sensible wx over the
next few days.

The warm front associated with the initial system has lifted
north through the local area. A narrow swath of weakening
overrunning moisture attendant to the warm front has resulted in
a brief round of isolated showers this evening. With the warm
front to the north, temperatures are hanging largely in the
upper 50s to lower 60s on a S wind. A more widespread, but
quick- moving slug of overrunning moisture ahead of the trailing
cold front crosses the area. Timing for this wave is mainly
from 11 PM-6 AM. Will keep the mention of thunder in the
forecast through the night as model soundings continue to show
up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE moving in. With no surface-
based instability, not expecting much more than a few rumbles of
thunder at the very most. Areal avg rainfall amounts will be
0.1-0.25" through tonight (which will actually be the bulk of
the rain from this system).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) will
  be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, with
  dry conditions returning Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and breezy from Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.

The stronger second system currently over the mid-MS valley is
progged to track NE into the upper Great Lakes, Ontario/Quebec
Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will drag a fairly
strong cold front through the local area Wed evening-early Thu
morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers,
perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are
possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, though model
trends continue to favor a drier frontal passage, as the best
deep- layered moisture/upper forcing remains confined to our
N/NE. Mild in the quasi-warm sector on Wed, with highs in the
lower 70s in most areas, though some mid 70s are certainly
possible with the breezy return flow. This would threaten a few
daily records, which have been included below in the climate
section for reference. Lows fall sharply behind the front into
the mid 30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day, as deep upper
troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb
high pressure builds over the Plains. Highs will only be in the
upper 40s-lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold
Thursday night with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s.
With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of
a breeze so radiational cooling conditions won`t be quite ideal
(but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in
the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with increasing rain chances
  by Monday and Tuesday.

The deep trough remains over the eastern CONUS Fri AM before the
flow aloft flattens out by Saturday. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to
30 mph. Winds may become light or calm Fri night/Sat AM as the
1032+mb high settles over the region. This will likely be the
coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower- mid
20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in
typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny and dry
conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the
weekend. However, increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying
airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the
weekend into early next week, as a deep trough builds over the
Rockies allowing deep-layered SW flow. Several disturbances in
the flow are expected to track over the area early next week as
well, which will increase rain chances (and potentially allow
for a more widespread wetting rain).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 655 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions start the 00z/26 TAF period as a warm front moves
across the area. With the front, there is a slight chance of showers
and lowered CIGS at SBY this evening until 02z, so have kept the
PROB30. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue until 05z with RIC
to see degraded conditions first behind the warm front. MVFR to IFR
CIGs are expected to arrive between 05-10z at all terminals with IFR
CIGs likely after 08z at all terminals. The best chance of showers
is between 05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated tstms or at least a
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, but strong/severe storms
aren`t expected. Conditions will improve after sunrise with VFR
conditions expected to return by the afternoon. Winds will be S/SW
tonight at 10-12 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook: A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday
afternoon/evening, although VFR conditions are likely, as the front
has trended drier. VFR conditions are expected behind the front
through Saturday as a much drier and cooler airmass moves in. A WNW
wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt is expected Thanksgiving Day.
Breezier Friday with a NW wind of 12-18kt gusting to 25-30kt,
highest around KSBY. High pressure then builds over the area Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the Chesapeake
  Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the
  tidal rivers into early Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front crosses the local waters Wednesday evening into
  Wednesday night, bringing strong Small Craft Advisory
  conditions to the local waters. A few gusts up to 35 kt are
  possible Wednesday night.

- Winds remain elevated into Friday night with high end Small
  Craft Advisory to marginal Gale conditions possible Thursday
  night into Friday.

Latest surface analysis depicted an area of high pressure offshore
with an elongated area of low pressure over the Midwest and Great
Lakes and the associated warm front near the VA/NC border. The warm
front lifts north later this afternoon into tonight, allowing for
WAA advection to ramp up overnight. As such, S winds are expected to
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this evening into
tonight. Therefore, SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay, tidal
rivers, and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light through
tonight. However, will note that confidence in winds reaching SCA
criteria across the tidal rivers has decreased. Additionally, hi-res
CAMs have trended lower with the winds late tonight through the day
Wed. As such, SCAs may need to be expired early.

The aforementioned area of low pressure moves NE across the
Great Lakes on Wed, pushing a strong cold front across the local
waters Wed evening into Wed night. Winds quickly become W/WNW
20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the cold front. A few
gusts up to 35 kt are possible, however, the confidence in
reaching 35 kt and the duration of the surge is too low to go
with Gale Warnings. Instead, SMWs may be issued if needed.
Winds briefly diminish to 15-20 kt Thu before a secondary surge
of CAA arrives Thu night into Fri. Winds increase with this
surge to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. However, if winds
trend a bit higher, Gale conditions would be possible. For now,
have winds just below Gale criteria. Additionally, probs for 34
kt gusts are quite low (<5% across the Ches Bay and generally
<20% across the coastal waters). As such, have held off on any
potential Gale Watches at this time. Winds become NW and
diminish on Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds into the
area.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft (4-5 ft across the
northern coastal waters) respectively tonight. Seas may linger at 4-
5 ft across the northern coastal waters into the day on Wed,
however, confidence is low. Waves build to 3-4 ft Wed night through
Fri night behind the cold front with a brief period of 4-5 ft waves
possible. Seas build to 4-5 ft during that timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Wed 11/26


Record           Record
                High/Year
--------        --------
Eliz. City, NC   78/1946
Richmond         76/1999
Norfolk          76/1990
Salisbury        74/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...