436
FXUS61 KAKQ 300544
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- A Coastal flood Statement has been issued for the high tide
  cycle this evening across the Bay side of the lower Maryland
  eastern shore.

- Updated Discussions

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog possible overnight, followed by a warming trend
that will bring above normal temperatures late in the week,
along with dry conditions.

2) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter
conditions appears likely for this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog possible overnight, followed by a
warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures late in
the week, along with dry conditions.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level trough still in
place along the east coast, with an upper ridge developing from
the western Gulf coast to the lower OH Valley. At the surface,
low pressure lingers off the coast of Maine and is slowly moving
farther offshore to Atlantic Canada, while weak high pressure is
situated across the local area. The light onshore flow for most
of our region combined with somewhat of a cold pool aloft in
association with the upper trough has kept the clouds around today
with just a few breaks noted on the latest satellite imagery.
Temperatures are seasonable, mostly in the mid to upper 70s. For
tonight, the winds will be light and variable inland and light
onshore near the coast. Have increased the cloud cover into the
early evening given the latest trends. The setup will be favorable
for fog overnight/early Wednesday morning if the sky does see
clearing this evening. However, if the clouds stay more prevalent,
then fog development would be less likely so confidence is
rather low in the extent of this later tonight, but will
continue with the mention of patchy fog for most of the area
after midnight. Lows will range from the upper 50s in the
piedmont to the mid-upper 60s/around 70F near the coast in the
SE. On Wednesday, we should finally see at least a partly sunny
sky as the low level flow shifts to the S-SE by afternoon with
the high sliding offshore. There is still enough low level
moisture to keep some SCT-BKN clouds around and if fog does
materialize overnight, it could be mostly cloudy for much of the
morning timeframe. Highs will rise to around 80F across the
north and low-mid 80s elsewhere. There is a higher confidence
for a mostly sunny sky with temperatures becoming very warm
Thursday and Friday as the low level S-SW flow increases. Still
not anticipating record highs, but highs into the upper 80s
Thursday, with upper 80s to lower 90s Friday is about 10-15 F
above average for the start of October and qualifies as
"unseasonably warm".

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and
wetter conditions appears likely for this weekend into early
next week.

An increasingly unsettled pattern looks to take shape for the
weekend into early next week. A deep closed low currently over
the Desert Southwest into the Intermountain West looks to open
up by midweek as it absorbs the mid-level remnants of TC Polo
and lifts across the central and southern Plains. This system
will eventually become absorbed into a northern stream trough
digging across the interior Northeast into the northern Mid-
Atlantic over the weekend. This will serve to dampen the Southeast
ridge and allow an influx of Gulf and Pacific moisture across
the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, likely reaching our region over
the weekend. There is still considerable spread among the
probabilistic model guidance regarding the exact timing and
track of these features, but a cold front is likely to push
south through much of the area on Saturday, then stall, with
additional (and more significant moisture) riding along the
front later in the weekend into early next week. While some low-
end rain chances accompany the initial windshift Saturday, the
higher chances are expected late Saturday night/early Sunday
through at least early Monday. One signal common to all
guidance, even this far out, is a notable increase in PWATs,
with values potentially reaching 1.5-2" by Saturday
night/Sunday. There is still plenty of time to monitor the
trends over the next several days, but locally heavy rainfall is
certainly possible (although much of this would be beneficial
given ongoing drought). In terms of temperatures, increased
clouds/precip and onshore flow favor cooler temps over the
weekend into early next week, but not abnormally so. Highs
Saturday likely range through the 70s and 80s, with higher PoPs
and cloud cover bringing cooler upper 60s and 70s Sunday and
Monday. Latest models indicate a strong enough push of drier
air associated with high pressure building in from the north
into the middle of next week, which would bring below normal
temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows into the 40s and
50s- this is still more uncertain given the range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions to begin the 06z TAF period. BKN-OVC VFR
CIGs hang on along the coast early this morning, as a weak mid
level shortwave trough lingers along the coast. Have begun to
note some clearing inland, but clearing will take a bit longer
into the morning along the coast. Where clearing has occurred
over the VA piedmont, patchy fog development is still likely
late, and have maintained this mention in the 06z TAFs. Any fog
that does form should dissipate by 13z, though clouds will
likely linger into the later morning. Eventually expect a partly
to mostly sunny sky and predominate VFR this afternoon. Light
winds becoming SSE this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR looks to prevail tonight through most of the week,
as high pressure settles near the area, then slides offshore
Thu/Fri. S-SW winds become elevated/breezy on Friday. Rain
chances increase over the area over the weekend ahead of an
approaching low pressure system and a cold frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions across the waters through much of
  this week.

A large area of high pressure situated over the area has led to
benign marine conditions today. Winds are variable and generally 5kt
or less. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1ft or
less. High pressure remains in control through Thursday, so the sub-
advisory conditions will continue through at least then. Southerly
winds will turn to the south and pick up slightly to around 10kt Wed
night into Thu as the center of the high slides offshore. S winds
increase further to 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt on Friday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Seas will be 2-3ft
through Thurs night, then around 3ft and up to 4ft in northern
waters on Friday. Northeast winds return behind the front over the
weekend at around 15kt. Next solid chance for SCAs as of now looks
to be early next week behind a second, stronger cold front.

There is a low risk of rip currents across all beaches through
Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC