901
FXUS61 KAKQ 181059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend starts today and continues Sunday ahead of the
next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance
for gusty showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer today with more clouds this morning, clearing from west to
  east by the afternoon.

Broad high pressure is in place across the eastern CONUS but some
mid and upper level moisture has started to move into the region
from the west. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 40s
with a few upper 30s in some of the typically cooler rural
spots. Temps may cool a few more degrees before sunrise,
especially over the eastern half of the area where clouds will
have the least effect.

Low level flow swings around the S or SE today as high pressure
translates off the Carolina coast. Afternoon high temps will be
in the mid 70s for most inland areas with upper 60s to low 70s
along the coast. Dry and mild tonight with lows in the in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches Sunday afternoon and crosses the area
  Sunday night, bringing increasing clouds, gusty SW winds, and
  chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms.

S and SW winds increase on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the surface cold front. Winds gust 25-30mph inland and up
to 35mph near the coast during the afternoon and evening. We warm
a few more degrees Sunday with highs well into the 70s across
the area. Some spots may even see temps in the low 80s across
portions of SE VA and NE NC. 00z guidance has come into decent
agreement for the Sunday night cold frontal passage. PoPs
increase across the west by late afternoon but especially into
the evening hours, spreading toward the I-95 corridor before
midnight and toward the coast thereafter. QPF has come up a bit
with most guidance showing between 0.25-0.5" for the
northwestern half of the area with lower amounts for the SE
half. Forecast soundings continue to show very little
instability but with strong dynamics aloft we could see a few
lightning flashes as a strongly-forced convective line
transverses the area. SPC has included most of the area in a
Marginal Risk for strong to locally severe storms Sunday night.
Very strong winds aloft may be able to mix down to the surface
with this convective line, despite the less than favorable
diurnal timing across the region. PoPs drop off quickly from
west to east after midnight. Behind the front, winds turn
westerly and remain breezy overnight. Low temps Sunday night
mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Cooler/drier air filters into the area on Monday with clouds
clearing out by the afternoon. Staying breezy through the afternoon
with temps in the mid to upper 60s. Winds become light SW Monday
night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another cold front expected to cross the region late Tuesday into
  Wednesday with limited moisture.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather return for the mid to
  late week period.

Warmer Tuesday ahead of the next front with highs mainly in the low
70s. Precip chances still look pretty low with this front but a few
showers are possible, mainly from the Northern Neck into the Eastern
Shore Tuesday night. Cold advection behind the front will knock
temps back into the 40s and low 50s overnight. Mainly dry and cool
for the rest of the week with highs generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Satellite
imagery shows some high level clouds moving across the region.
These clouds will linger across the area this morning before
moving offshore this afternoon. Light winds this morning with
become S or SSE 5-10 kt by late afternoon or early evening.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through most of
Sunday. S/SW winds increase in the afternoon to ~15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It
does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so
only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry
weather returns Monday but remaining breezy in the post-frontal
airmass.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- High pressure moves offshore later today with sub-advisory
  conditions expected.

- Small Craft Advisories are very likely Sunday into Monday with the
  next frontal passage.

- Occasional 34+ kt gusts are possible both ahead of and behind
  the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning.
  Additionally, gusty showers accompanying the frontal passage
  will likely necessitate SMWs.

Benign marine conditions prevail early this morning with high
pressure nearby. W winds are aob 10 kt with 3-4 ft seas in most
areas (and ~1 ft waves on the Ches Bay). 4-5 ft seas prevail across
the NE NC coastal waters due to residual swell, and will let that
SCA run through 4 AM. Sub-SCA with light/variable winds through
early aftn due to the surface high nearby. Winds shift to the S-SE
and increase to ~15 kt by early Sunday morning.

Marine conditions deteriorate on Sunday (and especially Sunday night-
early Monday AM) as deepening low pressure tracks just to the north
of the area. The associated (rather sharp) cold front is progged to
quickly cross the local waters Sunday night to Monday morning (most
likely between midnight and 3 AM). SCA conditions are expected both
before and after the front as southerly winds will increase to 20-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the coastal waters and Ches Bay by
Sunday evening. Could see a few 34 kt gusts out of the south across
the northern coastal waters from 9 PM-1 AM Sun night (right ahead of
the front), but will continue to note that model guidance tends to
overestimate the frequency of gale-force gusts in WAA/southerly wind
regimes. Local wind probs continues to show a 30-60% chance of gale-
force gusts (highest in the coastal waters), so will continue to
monitor, but have low confidence in this occuring. A line of gusty
showers will likely accompany the FROPA Sunday night, which could
produce 34+ kt gusts. Think that SMWs will likely be needed. Winds
will then shift to the W at 20-25 kt (with frequent 30 kt gusts)
Monday morning, decreasing throughout the day to 15-20 kt in the
Ches Bay and coastal waters. Could also see occasional 34 kt gusts
out of the west for a few hours following the FROPA Mon AM. Sub-SCA
winds are expected Mon night-Tue AM before another round of SCAs is
possible late Tue-Wed as another cold front is progged to approach
and cross the waters.

Waves and seas will stay below SCA criteria today at 3-4 ft in the
coastal waters and 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay before building back to 5-
7 ft Sun evening/night. Waves build to 3-4 ft on the bay during this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Water levels are expected to rise in the upper bay starting today
but especially tonight-Sunday (due to the increasing south winds
ahead of the front). Statements have been issued for today`s high
tide due to nuisance to locally minor flooding on the bay side of
the MD Eastern Shore and tidal Potomac.

Widespread minor tidal flooding is likely during the Sun AM/early
aftn high tide from Windmill Point northward, with localized
moderate flooding possible on the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore.
The best chance for moderate flooding is during the high tide cycles
on Sunday/Sunday night as winds become SW then W behind the front.
Note that there will be a quick increase in tidal anomalies on the
eastern shore when the wind becomes west immediately following the
FROPA, and how close this occurs to high tide will likely dictate
whether Cambridge/Crisfield see moderate flooding (or just
minor) Sunday night. Water levels gradually fall early next
week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...