278
FXUS61 KAKQ 290614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
214 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- A bit warmer with mostly sunny skies today. Humidity levels remain
  very comfortable.

Aloft, troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS. A low
amplitude wave in the broader cyclonic flow supports surface low
pressure well to the north of the local area, allowing a (dry) cold
front to approach the region this afternoon. Afternoon high
temperatures rise into the low 80s for most of the area with mid 80s
possible for Hampton Roads and northeastern NC. Forecast soundings
show plenty of dry air aloft which will mix downward this afternoon.
Very comfortable dew points in the 50s will result in another
beautiful day across the region. Clouds increase this evening into
the overnight as the front moves across the area, keeping overnight
lows in the mid 50s (N and NW) to low/mid 60s (SE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Pleasant weather continues Saturday with a slight chance for
  a shower near the Albemarle Sound during the afternoon and
  early evening.

- Streak of abnormally nice August weather continues Sunday.

00z guidance shows the front clearing most of the area by mid
morning on Saturday with decreasing clouds and dew points from N to
S during the afternoon. Some hi-res guidance hangs the front up
across our NC counties during the afternoon so have included slight
chance PoPs in these areas. Not expecting much in the way of QPF
with any showers that manage to form as instability will be lacking.
High temps return to the mid/upper 70s for the NW half of the area
with upper 70s and low 80s SE. Cool and comfortable Saturday night
with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Some of the typically cooler rural
areas may see lows dip into the upper 40s.

Gorgeous again on Sunday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew
points in the 50s. Mean upper troughing remains in place on Sunday
with a short wave moving through the region, likely only resulting
in a few more clouds across the area. Very low chance for a shower
or two across the Piedmont but not confident enough to include in
the forecast at this time. Mostly clear skies expected Sunday night
with lows again in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue, with a mainly
  dry weather pattern to persist into the Labor Day holiday and
  much of next week

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through
first half of next week as high pressure remains in control at the
sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for
rain outside of a stray shower looks like it would be mid to late
week as a stronger front approaches the area. Model guidance has
backed off on the potential for coastal low pressure as high
pressure builds farther south than it appeared would be the case
a few days ago. Temps will be generally the same Mon-Thurs with
highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows in the mid-upper
50s inland and low-mid 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Friday...

VFR flying weather prevails through the 06z TAF period. Some mid
level clouds noted across NC early this morning but not expected
to impact the TAF sites. Light and variable winds this morning
become WNW 5-10 kt late morning into the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show enough moisture at the top of the mixed layer for
FEW/SCT CU this afternoon.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions persists, with dry weather
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Friday...

- A cold front crosses the waters later today into tonight.

- A prolonged period of modest onshore flow is possible beginning
  late this weekend and continuing into early next week.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered just west of the local
waters. Meanwhile, one area of (weak) low pressure is centered over
the Great Lakes region while another is located just offshore near
the Gulf Stream. The pressure gradient over the waters has allowed
for S to SW winds to increase to ~10 to 15 knots, with occasional
gusts to around 20 knots at times. Seas are generally running around
2 to 3 feet, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are around 1 to 2
feet.

A cold front crosses the waters this evening into tonight, with
winds becoming NNE in its wake. Wind speeds are expected to remain
around 10 to 15 knots tonight into Saturday. High pressure builds
south into the area Sunday into early next week, leading to
continued onshore flow (~10 to 15 knots).

Seas/waves should remain 2 to 3 feet/1 to 2 feet today into the
weekend, although a brief increase to ~2 feet waves in the
Chesapeake Bay is possible late tonight into Saturday morning.
Persistent ENE onshore flow could result in building seas next week,
especially south of Cape Henry.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...AC/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB