515
FXUS61 KAKQ 200540
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1240 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions prevail tonight through Thursday. A low
pressure system will bring chances for rain Friday and Saturday.
High pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next
week leading to dry conditions. Another low pressure system may
impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 955 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cloud cover builds south across the area tonight.

- Mainly dry, but cool and mostly cloudy Thursday.

This evening, a cold front has dropped south of the area and
weak low pressure (~1017 mb) is located off the Mid Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile, high pressure continues to build over New
England, wedging south into the local area. This has allowed for
a weak CAD setup to begin to take hold over the area, with low
clouds developing over northeastern portions of the area and
spreading southeast.

Clouds become widespread over a majority of the area tonight as
the wedge takes hold. Low temperatures will range from the
upper 30s N and NW, to the mid 40s further SE. Patchy drizzle
and/or patchy fog cannot be ruled out in a few spots tonight due
to saturated lower levels.

Remaining dry on Thursday, but with high pressure lingering to
our NE, onshore flow/weak CAD continues to look probable. This
will lead to a mainly overcast day, with some clearing possible
later in the afternoon across southern and western portions of
the area. High temperatures will range from the lower 50s north
to around 60 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances.

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, drying out
Saturday night.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday night into Friday as our next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Remaining cool/cloudy
Thursday night into the first part of Friday. A warm front likely
lifts north over the area Friday morning into Friday afternoon,
bringing at least a chance for rain, with the highest PoPs (~40%)
focused across NW portions of the area. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s south. Higher
rain chances are expected Friday night through at least the first
half of Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west and
crosses the area. Not expecting much QPF with this system, with
storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.35" per the latest run
of the NBM. Probabilities for > 0.5" of QPF are only around 15 to
20% (highest across northern portions of the area). Rain chances
diminish Saturday afternoon-evening from west to east, with dry
conditions returning Saturday night. It will be a mild day on
Saturday with highs ranging from the lower 60s across northern
portions of the area, to the lower (possibly mid) 70s across
portions of interior NE NC. Finally, cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder Saturday afternoon, mainly across southern portions of the
area. Cooler Saturday night with lows dropping back into the 30s and
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

High pressure builds across the area Sunday through Monday night,
leading to dry weather and temperatures near to a little above
normal. No appreciable chances for below freezing temperatures
through the middle of next week at least. Another system potentially
approaches Tuesday into the middle of next week, bringing the next
chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Thursday...

IFR CIGs are currently plaguing all terminals expected for SBY,
which is experiencing MVFR CIGs. These lowered CIGs will linger
through near or just after sunrise before starting to lift. While
cloud cover will remain in place across the forecast area through
tomorrow night, VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals by 14z
at this time. Surface winds will remain light and generally variable
through the TAF period.

Outlook: The next chance for light rain arrives Friday into
Saturday with the next system, which could lead to additional
flight restrictions. At this time, Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 715 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A brief northerly surge brings Small Craft Conditions to the
  Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic coastal waters, and the Currituck
  Sound tonight.

- SCA conditions possible in the wake of another cold front Saturday.

Weak low pressure continues to slowly push offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast this evening. Winds this evening were 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt over most of the area. A few gusts up to
around 30 kt continue to be possible across the northern coastal
waters early tonight. Waves were 2-3 ft with seas of 3-5 ft.

The area of low pressure appears closer than originally modeled.
As such, recent model guidance has trended towards a longer
duration of elevated winds tonight with winds now lingering
across the lower bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters
(mainly the southern coastal waters) potentially until 3-4 AM
Thu. As such, have extended the SCAs until 1 AM for the lower
bay, Currituck Sound, and the VA and MD coastal waters.
Additionally, seas have already increased to 3-5 ft across the
coastal waters with the new run of the NBM showing seas
lingering much longer, especially across the southern coastal
waters. As such, have extended SCAs for the NC coastal waters
until 6 AM Thu to account for the elevated seas.

Thereafter, generally benign conditions are expected to persist
from late tonight through the end of the week. Waves will
average 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft (3-4 ft seas linger across the
southern coastal waters into Thu afternoon). High pressure
translates offshore on Friday ahead of the next front. A period
of SCA conditions is possible on Saturday behind the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ632>634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/AC
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...RHR/RMM