030
FXUS61 KAKQ 210738
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
238 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north today, and then crosses the local area
as cold front Saturday. Intermittent chances for rainfall are
possible today through Saturday. High pressure builds back into
the area Sunday into early next week, leading to dry
conditions. Another system may impact the area Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- A warm front moves through today, bringing chances for light
  rain and mild temperatures.

- Higher rain chances and continued mild temperatures expected
  ahead of and along a cold front tonight.

High pressure remains wedged across the forecast area this morning,
with thick cloud cover being observed. Additionally, with moist low-
levels and light winds, some areas of patchy fog have been able to
develop, though visibilities have generally remained between 3-6
miles for a majority of the night. Temperatures under this thick
cloud deck have remained in the 40s. Surface analysis shows a front
south of the area that is progged to start lifting northward as a
warm front over the next few hours. Some precipitation has already
arrived in southern piedmont counties, though measurable rainfall
has been hard to come by due to the light nature of these showers.

High pressure will slide further offshore today as a trough moving
through the Plains advances eastward. The aforementioned warm front
associated with this system will lift through the area later today,
bringing our first chance of rain by early afternoon. With the
arrival of more widespread light rain near peak heating and a thick
cloud deck already in place, temperatures will struggle to reach 60F
degrees, with lower 60s possible in NE NC. After this initial round
of light rainfall, a brief reprieve is expected ahead of the next
round as a cold front approaches the area. Higher rain chances are
forecast for tonight and into tomorrow morning as a surface low
lifts ENE towards the area. The almost eastward track of this weak
low will allow the warm front to remain near the area, which will
help enhance rainfall overnight. Have removed any mention of thunder
for tonight despite the more favorable upper-level ascent and
nearing surface low as only very marginal instability will be in
place and it is not a favorable timeframe for convection. The
highest rain chances are concentrated across VA and the Eastern
Shore and start to lessen across far southern VA and NE NC due to
the more favorable environment to the north. Not expecting much QPF
with this system, with storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to
0.45". A few areas could see rainfall amounts nearing ~0.50", but
confidence in the exact locations of these higher localized totals
is low. With light southerly flow, rain, and cloud cover, overnight
temperatures tonight will only cool into the 50s, with some upper
40s possible for the northern counties and on the Eastern Shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Rain tapers off Saturday afternoon, followed by dry/cool
  conditions Saturday night into Sunday.

- Mild temperatures Saturday, followed by seasonable
  temperatures Sunday. Chilly overnight low temperatures
  expected this weekend.

The cold front will push through the forecast area early Saturday
morning into the afternoon. A few showers are possible along the
front as it advances through the area, but these showers will again
generally be light and bring little in the way of measurable
rainfall to the area. Rain will start to taper off from NW to SE on
Saturday afternoon as the front makes its way offshore. Despite the
rain and lingering cloud cover, temperatures are still forecast to
reach the 60s to even lower 70s across the south. N/NW of the
frontal boundary, temperatures will be cooler and may struggle to
get out of the 50s. A drier, cooler airmass will filter in behind
the front on Saturday night. Chilly overnight temperatures are
expected Saturday night, with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid
30s across the northern counties/MD Eastern Shore and the mid 30s to
low 40s across the remaining portions of the local area. High
pressure will build across the region on Sunday, with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions returning. With high pressure
overhead Sunday night, clear skies and light winds will prevail,
resulting in a favorable environment for radiational cooling.
Another chilly night is forecast for Sunday, with lows dropping into
the 30s again (lower to mid 40s along the coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
  middle of next week.

Temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 60s Monday and
Tuesday ahead of another possible disturbance that will potentially
approach the region around mid-week. There continues to be some
disagreement between global models in the timing and strength of
this next system, though there is agreement that this system will
bring the next round of measurable rainfall to the area. Guidance is
struggling with how the upper-level pattern evolves, which will have
implications on how the forecast plays out ahead of and during the
Thanksgiving holiday. Regardless of the exact details, there is a
signal that warmer temperatures will continue through Wednesday,
followed by cooler temperatures returning by late week as an
expansive upper trough digs down across the Eastern United
States.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 AM EST Friday...

There is a mixed bag of CIGs at the terminals, with occasional MVFR
conditions being observed across the area. Fog is trying to develop
at the southern terminals, but has struggled to maintain itself so
we will continue to monitor for any further BR/FG development over
the next few hours. Just after sunrise there will be a brief period
of VFR conditions at all terminals. By midday, a warm front will
start to lift across the area, bringing light rain and MVFR to IFR
CIGs. SBY will be the last to observe the degraded flight conditions
due to its far NE location, but by the evening, all of the terminals
will be socked in low-level cloud cover. There will likely be a
brief drier period between when the warm front lifts through during
the day and when a cold front drops through the area tomorrow night.
More rain will accompany the cold front overnight tomorrow, though
exact timing is a little uncertain for its arrival, so have included
VCSH for now and will refine the details with the next TAF update.
Winds will generally be light from the SE-SW, becoming variable
at times.

Dry and VFR conditions return by Saturday evening and will
continue into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign boating conditions are expected to continue today.

- A cold front crosses the local waters on Saturday with the potential
  for Small Craft conditions from Saturday through Saturday
  night.

- Mainly sub-advisory conditions are expected from Sunday through
  the middle of next week.

Benign marine conditions prevail early this morning with N-NE winds
around 5 kt as high pressure is centered just offshore. Winds turn
to the S-SW today but remain below 10 kt. The pressure gradient will
tighten tonight and early Saturday as a weak low pressure system
approaches from the west but wind speeds through 12z/7 AM Sat will
remain no higher than 10-15 kt. The low then moves offshore on
Saturday which will drag a cold front through the waters between 8
AM-2 PM. This is the main forecast concern through the weekend, as
winds turn to the north following the FROPA and increase to 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt for a 3-6 hour period on the bay/ocean. Winds
become NNE-NE and diminish to ~15 kt by Sat night as the pressure
gradient slackens. SCAs will likely be needed for the bay and
Currituck Sound, but will hold off on any headlines since it is 30-
36 hours away and it looks like a short-lived, low-end SCA event.
SCAs may also be needed for the southern coastal waters late Sat/Sat
night as seas build to 4-5 ft with the winds becoming NNE-NE. Seas
should top out at 3-4 ft north of Cape Charles with waves in the bay
building to 2-3 ft during this period. High pressure builds into the
area on Sunday with improving marine conditions expected. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected from Mon-Wed with the next chance of SCAs
being late Wed into Thu as a stronger cold front approaches and
crosses the waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...ERI/RHR