369
FXUS61 KAKQ 141100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
600 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build into the area today. A
warm front lifts through the region on Saturday before a cold
front crosses the area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns
early next week before another system potentially impacts the
region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

-Chilly lows this morning with some areas being below freezing.

-Temperatures continue too gradually warm today.

Morning weather analysis shows northwest flow aloft over the area with a
strong ridge building over the central United States. At the
surface, a 1022 mb high pressure system remains over parts of
the Deep South. Calm winds and clear skies have allowed for
temperatures this morning to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s
inland and across the Eastern Shore. While along the coast
temperatures are in the middle to upper 30s with some lower 40s
noted across the coastline of NC. Throughout the day, high
pressure will remain over the area. Unlike previous days, winds
will be lighter as the high settles overhead. Dry and pleasant
conditions will prevail, with highs in the lower 60s across VA
and NC. Across the Eastern Shore, some high-level clouds will
linger, keeping temperatures slightly cooler in the mid to upper
50s. Late tonight, high pressure moves south, allowing
additional high clouds to move in. Lows will remain cool,
ranging from the lower to mid-40s inland to the upper 40s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

-Warming Trends continue both Saturday and Sunday with places
seeing highs in the 70s.

-Warm front lifts Saturday night bringing a chance of rain
    across the north.

-A secondary dry cold front pushes across the entire area Sunday.

On Saturday, weak northwest flow aloft will persist while a warm front
lifts across the area, increasing dew points and temperatures. Breezy
conditions are expected due to a stronger pressure gradient, but the day
will remain dry with partly cloudy skies. By Saturday evening, the warm
front will be positioned somewhere across the northern part of the
forecast area. This could produce a chance of showers across the Maryland
 Eastern Shore, where the best lift is focused. Confidence remains low,
so PoPs have been kept between 1530%. Saturday night will be mild and
pleasant, with lows in the lower 50s across the Eastern Shore and upper
50s to lower 60s across VA/NC. Sunday presents some forecast challenges
due to the timing of drier air behind the approaching cold front. If the
dry air arrives earlier, fire weather concerns may increase. If it arrives
 later, higher dew points would limit fire weather issues. The cold front
will move across the area early Sunday, bringing breezy westerly winds
with gusts of 2530 mph. These downsloping winds will help temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, with some mid-70s possible across NE
NC. Sunday night will remain somewhat breezy in the post-frontal CAA
regime, with lows falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and drier air returns behind the front.

- Progressive system impacts the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Strong northwest flow aloft persists through Monday, with breezy northwest
winds at the surface due to a continued pressure gradient. These
downsloping winds will mix out dew points, lowering RH values into
the 2030% rangepotentially increasing fire weather concerns, although
wind speeds remain the limiting factor. Highs Monday will reach the upper
50s to low 60s across VA/NC and the lower 50s across the Eastern Shore.
 Model guidance remains in good agreement on a fast-moving system expected
to cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, rainfall amounts
appear limited. Ensemble guidance continues to show only a 4060% chance
of QPF reaching 0.10. Nonetheless, confidence in the systems arrival has
increased, so chance PoPs have been added across the entire region.
High temperatures have also been nudged downward due to expected clouds
and light rainupper 40s across the north and low to mid-50s across the
south. Wednesday and Thursday look seasonable, with afternoon highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 6AM EST Friday...

VFR prevails for the 12z/14 TAF period. Clear  skies prevail
over the forecast for the rest of the night and through the
first half of tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds build across
the N toward the end of the period. Winds will be light and
variable overnight, then WNW winds will be 5-10kt tomorrow
afternoon (10-15kt at SBY). By tonight winds will drop and
become variable inland. While along the SE coast winds will
drop for a short period but increase out of the SSW between 5 to
10 kt. In addition, some model guidance has hinted on some
possible LLWS across the southern terminals as a warm front
lifts north tonight. However, at this time there is not enough
confidence to include LLWS in the TAFS.


Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday. There is a chance for some
light showers as well as potentially degraded flying conditions
on Saturday night across northern portions of the area,
including SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1140 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected into Saturday before a cold
  front brings increasing winds/building waves Saturday night
  through Monday.

A large area of high pressure is centered over the TN Valley,
with weak low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. The center
of the high shifts SE and situates along the NC/SC coast
Friday. Westerly winds range from ~10 kt on the Chesapeake Bay,
rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters to ~15 kt
on the northern coastal waters. Benign marine conditions prevail
into Saturday as winds shift gradually become southerly. A cold
front will approach and cross the waters Sunday into Sunday
night, with elevated SW winds developing Saturday night ahead of
the front, veering to the NW Sunday evening and overnight
behind the front. Small Craft Advisories are very likely from
Saturday night through Monday in both the pre-frontal and post-
frontal regimes. At this time, expect the highest winds behind
the front early Monday morning with sustained winds 20-25 kt and
gusts 30-35 kt. Will monitor model trends for any Gale
potential on the northern waters, but current indications
suggest winds should fall mainly shy (the highest probs for
frequent >34 kt gusts are N of our area of responsibility).
Winds diminish Monday night into the middle of next week with
sub- advisory conditions expected.

Seas will average around 2 ft Friday and Saturday. With the
increased winds Saturday night through Monday, seas build to 3-6
ft, but the offshore wind direction should prevent seas from
building too high. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay prevail in the
2-3 ft range or less, other than 3-4 ft Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/RHR
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET/RHR
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB/SW