639
FXUS61 KAKQ 110144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
844 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Well below normal temperatures will remain in place through Tuesday,
with sub-freezing readings anticipated late tonight. Temperatures
will gradually moderate through the week with dry weather expected.
The next chance of precip will come late this weekend as a system
approach from the southwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 705 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Much colder today/tonight. A Freeze Warning remains in effect
  tonight for widespread below freezing temperatures expected.

- Wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s are expected
  tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Light snow showers are possible tonight across south central
  and SE VA and NE NC.

Latest surface analysis depicted a ~997mb low over New England
and a ~1033mb high over eastern TX/OK. Aloft, a strong shortwave
was pushing into the Appalachian Mountains. The approaching
shortwave has allowed for SCT-BKN sky cover across central VA
this evening with the radar showing some light virga. Temps as
of 645 PM ranged from the low-mid 40s for most with some upper
30s across the southern Piedmont.

The combination of forcing aloft from the approaching shortwave
trough, along with steepening mid level lapse rates, will
help support the development of showers across the area this
evening into tonight. Temps should be warm enough before
midnight that precip starts as rain (once it overcomes the
low level dry air). Models continue to differ with respect to
how this setup evolves overnight with the NAM showing less
precip and the HRRR/RRFS consistently showing more widespread
precip (in the form of snow) overnight. While forecast soundings
do show the dry air near the surface, current thinking is that
there will likely be enough forcing to overcome the dry air and
ultimately result in a period of snow showers lasting anywhere
from 1-4 hours across south central VA and SE VA as well as NE
NC. As such, have increased PoPs (30-40%) to show the
progression of the forcing and the movement of snow showers from
NW to SE through the night. Additionally, while the surface
temps will start off above freezing, the cool air aloft should
be able to mix to the surface with the snow, likely resulting in
temps falling to 32-33F while it is snowing. As such, cannot
rule out a quick dusting (up to around a half an inch) of snow
on predominantly grassy and elevated surfaces if snowfall rates
are high enough to overcome the marginal temps. This potential
is supported by the last several runs of the HRRR as well as the
HREF which had a 40-85% for at least 0.1" of snowfall across the
region. The general timeframe for snow appears to be from
midnight to 5 AM. Snow tapers off later tonight behind the
shortwave as cold, dry air moves in.

Outside of the potential for some snow, the main story will be
sub- freezing temperatures area-wide. Look for lows to bottom
out in the mid 20s across the Piedmont to around 30-32F
along the coast. As such, Freeze Warnings remain in effect late
tonight into Tuesday morning. Additionally, it will feel very
cold for November with wind chills in the upper teens to lower
20s across the region given winds remaining elevated overnight
into Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 123 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry/cold on Tuesday with moderating temperatures Wednesday.

High pressure will build over the southeastern CONUS Tuesday into
Wednesday. Winds will be breezy again on Tuesday, gradually backing
and weakening on Wednesday. It`ll be another day of below normal
temps on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 40s, rebounding
considerably to the upper 50s/lower 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 123 PM EST Monday...

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures through Saturday

- Another system may approach the area Sunday into early next week,
bringing the next chance for rain.

High confidence in northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the
week into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain
parked over the southeastern CONUS. This will continue to support
seasonable temperatures and dry weather.

On Sunday a fast moving upper low should eject out of the Desert
Southwest, eventually moving through the TN Valley Sunday night into
Monday. Broad forcing for ascent and modest moisture advection
should support some low end precip chances (20-30 percent late
Sunday into Monday). Temps should be warm enough to support rain vs
snow with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Monday...

Generally VFR conditions continue through the 00z taf outside of
the potential for some light snow showers. A shortwave
approaches from the west overnight, allowing for BKN sky cover
across central VA this evening with the radar showing some light
virga. CIGs were generally 5000-7000 ft with these clouds.
However, it is possible that CIGs could drop a bit lower (closer
to 3000 ft) between 8-10z near ECG. While forecast soundings do
show dry air near the surface (supported by current obs),
current thinking is that there will likely be enough forcing to
overcome the dry air and ultimately result in a period of snow
showers lasting anywhere from 1-4 hours across south central VA
and SE VA as well as NE NC. As such, have increased PoPs to
30-40% to show the progression of the forcing and the movement
of snow showers from NW to SE through the night. The best chance
for snow showers is between 5-7z at RIC, 7-9z at PHF, 7-10z at
ORF, and 7-11z at ECG. However, confidence is low in both the
duration of any snow showers as well as the exact location of
the snow. As such, confidence was too low for snow reducing VIS
at any given terminal to reflect with prevailing -SN.
Therefore, have added PROB30s for now to show the general
timeframe where light snow is possible. VIS may drop to MVFR/IFR
if snow does develop over any given airport. Any snow showers
should end by 10-11z with dry air moving in and cloud cover
clearing late tonight into Tue. Winds remain generally NW at ~10
kt tonight, increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to ~20 kt after
8z. Winds become W 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt Tue across
the region under mostly clear skies.

Outlook: VFR/dry Tuesday night through Friday with breezy
conditions during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 830 PM EST Monday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect tonight, with a
  transition to Gale Warnings early Tuesday across the Bay,
  Ocean, and Sound.

- Winds drop off slightly, but remain elevated late Tuesday-
  Thursday with SCAs likely.

Strong low pressure over northern New England and strong high
pressure along the western Gulf coast is in place, with
increasing W-NW winds over the waters this evening. Seas are
still only in the 3-4 ft range with waves 2-3 ft in the Bay.
Later tonight, and Tuesday morning, strong CAA develops (850 mb
temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over still-relatively mild
waters of 12 to 15C, will lead to optimal mixing. Gale Warnings
go into effect for the Bay, Ocean, Sound starting at 4 AM and
continue through early evening Tuesday. Confidence is highest
over the coastal waters (gusts 35-40 kt), but still anticipate
marginal Gale conditions over the Bay/Sound with some gusts to
~35 kt. The offshore wind direction will keep sig Wave heights
in the 4-6 ft range with 3-5 ft waves in the Bay through Tuesday
aftn. The latest trends suggest winds probably drop off after
18Z in the Bay/Sound so the Gales may be able to be cancelled a
little early but will not make any changes at this time. Winds
will average 20-25 kt Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as they
turn to the SW. Elevated west winds continue through Wednesday
and into Thursday with seas still mainly 4-5 ft and waves 2-4 ft
in the Bay before finally dropping below SCA thresholds Thursday
evening/night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 830 PM EST Monday...

It will be dry and windy Tuesday, with min RH values of 25-35%.
However, the cold temperatures (most areas at or below freezing
to start the day), and rainfall amounts as high as 1-2" over the
past 36 hrs in some areas, will mitigate the threat. Therefore,
did not issue any SPS/Fire Danger Statements.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ065-075>090-092-
     093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634-
     656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ