615
FXUS61 KAKQ 161938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
338 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today through
Thursday bringing increasingly hot and continued humid
conditions. Chances of mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms continue today with less coverage
expected by Thursday. Remaining hot and humid Friday with an
increased chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms as a
weak front drops into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern of afternoon/evening showers and storms continue
today, but with less coverage.

The current radar shows a few isolated showers across the area, with
more scattered convection to the south in North Carolina. With
better flow aloft, these showers are able to move, rather than the
stationary storms from days past. Later today, a shortwave will move
through the northern part of the Commonwealth, aiding in more
scattered showers and storms in central VA and SE MD. The coverage
looks to be overall less for the forecast area than the previous
days, however with the saturated grounds, flash flood guidance
remains low with most of the area only requiring an inch or less for
flooding to occur. The moist air mass continues with PWAT values
above 2" (well above normal) for the next few days. An isolated
strong to severe storm is possible in the northern VA piedmont with
damaging winds as the primary threat, as SPC has the NW counties in
a marginal risk through tonight. Most convection should begin to
dissipate as the daytime heat reduces, but a few lingering isolated
showers are possible this evening. Temperatures are currently
nearing the high in the upper 80s to near 90F. Tonight`s lows will
be seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories have been issued for central and southeastern VA
and the Eastern Shore for Thursday as heat indices reach up to 107.
Heat Advisories may be needed Friday as well.

- Afternoon/evening isolated to scattered showers and storms remain
in the forecast.

Hotter conditions return as temperatures at 850 mb reach 19-21 C and
flow becomes more westerly. Heat indices are expected to reach up to
107 east of I-95 in VA, with values 100-105 elsewhere. Heat
Advisories have been issued at this time for the Eastern Shore,
Northern Neck, RIC metro, the peninsulas, and SE VA through 8 PM
Thursday. Heat indices on Friday will also approach headline
criteria, primarily in SE VA and NE NC, and Heat Advisories will
likely be needed. Temperatures and dewpoints will then return to
normal into the weekend.

The next shortwave trough will move through the region on Thursday,
aiding in the chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms in
the afternoon. More shear than the previous few days could allow
these storms to potentially become more organized and marginal
severe threat. The coverage of these storms and showers will likely
be less than the last few days. On Friday, a substantial trough and
cold front will approach the area. The drier airmass associated with
it will stay to the north of the forecast area, and with the
continued moist airmass with PWATs 2"+, higher coverage of showers
and storms are likely on Friday. The front will likely stall before
moving out of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity this weekend into
early next week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

The weekend into early next week will generally feature an upper
ridge centered in vicinity of the Southeast coast with disturbances
rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. The front is
expected to linger over the region Saturday allowing for
afternoon/evening showers and storms once again. The front may lift
NE of the area by Sunday, which would result in hotter temperatures
and less convective coverage. Generally unsettled with scattered
convection into early next week. Seasonally hot and humid early next
week with the ridge possibly moving more to the west as surface high
pressure moves over the New England region, which could allow
slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Primarily VFR conditions continue through the 18z TAF period
outside of brief MVFR CIGs this afternoon due to CU.
Additionally, a few isolated to scattered showers/storms are
possible this afternoon before tapering off this evening.
However, confidence in any given shower or storm hitting a local
terminal is too low to reflect in the TAF. As such, have added
PROB30s for PHF/ORF/ECG where confidence in nearby storms is a
bit higher with VCSH at RIC/SBY where confidence in convection
is lower. Clouds clear late tonight into Thu morning with CU
developing late Thu morning into Thu afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms will again be possible Thu mainly
across the Piedmont.

An unsettled pattern continues into early next week with daily
chances for scattered showers/storms. The best chance for
scattered storms is Fri and Sat afternoon as a series of cold
fronts move through.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay,
rivers, and the VA coastal waters from tonight through Thursday
afternoon.

- Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign
marine conditions return Friday through the weekend.

SW flow prevails across the waters this afternoon given a Bermuda
high offshore. SW winds 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt this
afternoon will gradually increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
(locally 25-30 kt across the Ches Bay) later this evening into Thu
afternoon. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds increase to 90-100%
across the Ches Bay with wind probs for 25 kt gusts increasing to 65-
90% across the Ches Bay and VA coastal waters. As such, have
expanded the SCAs and now have SCAs from 10 PM this evening through
4 PM Thu afternoon for the Lower James and Ches Bay and 1 AM Thu
through 1 PM Thu for the rest of the rivers and the VA coastal
waters. Winds diminish to around 15 kt with occasional gusts up to
20 kt later Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of an approaching
cold front. Will note that SCAs may need to be extended into Thu
night if models trend higher with the winds, however, confidence was
too low to extended them that far at this time. Winds diminish to 5-
10 kt Fri behind the cold front and remain generally benign through
the middle of next week given high pressure lingering over the East
Coast.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
into early next week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief
stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in
heavy rain. The best chance of storms at this time appears to be
Fri afternoon/evening.

Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft tonight into Thu before subsiding to
1-2 ft by Fri. Cannot rule out a few 4-5 ft seas across the VA
coastal waters early Thu. Will keep a low rip current risk for all
beaches Thu and Fri. However, the northern beaches appear to be a
high-end low rip risk given 3-4 ft waves with SW winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...

Flood Warnings for Farmville and Lawrenceville have been
cancelled.


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ064-
     075>078-081>086-089-090-093-095>100-512-514>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ635>637-652-654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RMM/SW
HYDROLOGY...