211
FXUS61 KAKQ 092335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
635 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures expected again tonight that will lead to any
snowmelt to refreeze on untreated surfaces. Slightly "warmer"
temperatures tomorrow with windy conditions ahead on a cold
front. Uncertainty still remains with multiple systems late this
week and at the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:


- Temperatures drop/remain below freezing tonight allowing for any
melted snow to refreeze.

- Windy but "warmer" day tomorrow as a warm front pushes through the
area.

Afternoon weather analysis shows moderate to strong zonal flow
aloft. While at the surface, a 1022mb high pressure remains over the
area. Skies remain clear to mostly clear with some high level clouds
moving across the Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures have
warmed this afternoon, however, some areas continue to remain below
freezing due to the remaining snow. Across the SE temperatures are
in the mid 30s to low 40s along the coastline. While across the
Piedmont and VA Eastern Shore temps are in the upper 20s to lower
30s. The MD eastern Shore and Northern Neck temps are in the middle
30s. Once the sunsets tonight temperatures will drop rapidly and any
snow that has melted will begin to refreeze. This will lead to black
ice forming on untreated surface and could cause hazardous travel
conditions tonight and early in the morning. The high pressure will
slowly move offshore tonight and will shift our winds out of the SW.
This will lead to temperatures warming but staying below freezing
tonight. The lowest temperatures are expected to be early on tonight
with lows reaching into the middle to upper 20s inland with some
isolated lower 20s and lower 30s along the coast. For Wednesday, a
strong low pressure system will be tracking to the north of the area
across the Great Lakes. As this system tracks across that area a
warm front will push across the area helping to warm temps into the
middle to upper 40s inland and lower 50s along the coast. In
addition to the warmer temperatures a windy day is expected as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Wind gusts are
expected to be between 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures again Thursday in wake of the cold front.

- Potential for another clipper system Friday.

A large trough will be centered over much of the eastern half of the
United States resulting in NW flow aloft across the area. At the
surface, a high pressure will come back out of Canada ushering in
another round of cooler and drier air. This high pressure is not
expected to be as strong and lows Wednesday night will only fall
into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and middle 30s across the far
SE and coast. Thursday will be cooler as the high remains over head
with temperatures reaching into the low to middle 40s. There
continues to remain some uncertainty for Friday. Deterministic
models and their ensembles continue to remain in some disagreement.
On Friday the high pressure is expected to slide offshore a a weak
clipper system is expected to move over the area. This clipper
system could potentially lead to additional snow showers across the
northern half of the area. The question remains will there be enough
moisture and if so how much snow could potentially fall. At this
time, not expecting much due to the uncertainty. The latest ECMWF
shows 30 to 50% of 1" of snow across the far NW as the GEFS has
around 10%. Trends in the models will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

- Dry and "warmer" weather is expected Saturday with another system
bringing some potential precipitation again Sunday.

- Much colder airmass moves in late Sunday bringing lows down into
the middle teens at night and only upper 30s Monday.

Strong troughing is expected to be over the area during the weekend
with NW flow aloft persisting. High pressure is expected to remain
over much of the area Saturday with dry weather conditions expected.
Highs will be in the upper 40s across the north and low to middle
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s. There still remains some uncertainty for Sunday due to
the inconsistency from the ensembles. There is the potential for
some additional precipitation some potentially wintry. However, at
this time pops have been capped off no higher than 35%. Behind the
potential system Sunday a moderate to strong high pressure will move
out of Canada ushering in an arctic airmass. Lows SUnday are progged
to be in the middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast. This
colder airmass will be locked in place through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Tuesday...

Primarily VFR is expected through 00z Thursday. While CIGs
tonight will be dominated by high-level cloud cover, some model
guidance (along with current obs in the Piedmont) suggest some
MVFR CIGs could attempt to move eastward into RIC later tonight
into early Wednesday morning. These lower CIGs would likely
dissipate after 14z or so. Have only mentioned this via a TEMPO
due to lower confidence. Otherwise, mostly cloudy Wednesday
with mid- high level cloud cover increasing ahead of a cold
front. SW winds also become quite breezy ahead of the front,
with wind speeds around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt
along the coast). Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet
could lead to southwesterly LLWS at RIC tonight, followed by
LLWS at all terminals after 21/22z Wednesday. There is a very
low chance of an isolated shower across the area as the front
moves through in the evening, but PoPs are <20%.

Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger light
rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow
across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings a re
in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in effect
for most others zones in the marine area.

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later
Sunday.


High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon. The wind is light and generally out of the W to NW. Seas
range from 3-4ft N to 5-6ft S. High pressure slides offshore tonight
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure lifts NE through the
Great Lakes Wednesday, with the trailing cold front crossing the
coast later Wednesday evening into overnight Wednesday night. A SW
wind will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday, with additional
mixing with the frontal passage Wednesday evening. Wind probs for >=
34kt gusts are >70% N of Cape Charles (highest out near 20nm), and
forecast soundings from the 09/12z NAM/GFS suggest a period of gale
force gusts Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening. Therefore, the
Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning. Elsewhere, a SW wind
is expected to increase to 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt and SCAs have
been issued for the Ches. Bay (beginning later tonight), the lower
James (beginning early Wed morning), the Currituck (beginning Wed
aftn), and continuing for the southern coastal waters all through
late Wed night/Thu morning. Seas build to 4-6ft S to 5-8ft N, with 3-
4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The upper rivers may eventually need an
SCA for a few hours Wed aftn.

High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday night. A
weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the region Friday
night. High pressure then settles over the Southeast Saturday. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected to prevail Thursday aftn through at
least Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the coast later Sunday
into Sunday night with high pressure returning Monday. At least SCA
conditions are expected based on the 09/12z guidance.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ