423
FXUS61 KAKQ 300625
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
225 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather continues today with a slight chance for a shower
  near the Albemarle Sound during the afternoon and early evening.

Surface cold front is dropping rapidly south across the area early
this morning. Light winds become N to NNE behind the boundary.
Scattered mid and high level clouds accompany the front but should
thin out this afternoon as drier air moves into the region from the
north. Latest CAM guidance still shows a very slight chance for a
few showers across NE NC late afternoon into the early evening. Not
expecting much in the way of QPF with any showers that are able to
form with limited deep layer moisture and instability. Temperatures
today will be a bit cooler than yesterday with highs ranging from
the mid 70s N to the low 80s S. Mostly clear and comfortable tonight
with lows in the 50s for most of the CWA and upper 50s to low 60s
for SE counties and the immediate coast. Still would not be
surprised if some of the cooler outlying areas dip into the upper
40s prior to sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally nice August weather continues Sunday and
  Monday.

Basically a persistence forecast Sunday and Labor Day with
highs in the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Mean
upper troughing remains in place on Sunday with a short wave
moving through the region, likely only resulting in a few more
clouds across the area. Fewer clouds expected Monday with
similar temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue through mid
  week.

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns from Wed night
  onward as a front approaches the region from the west and
  potentially interacts with a weak coastal low.

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues through
first half of next week as high pressure remains in control at the
sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in place. Next chance for
rain looks like it would be mid to late week as a stronger front
approaches the area. Global models diverge with respect to the
development of an area of low pressure the SE coast along the old
frontal boundary. Will stick with the blended guidance given the
uncertainty, which results in slight chance to chance PoPs for the
late week period. Temperatures and dew points increase a few degrees
Thursday but still only into the low 80s with dew points rebounding
into the 60s. Dry and comfortable weather returns behind the front
late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 30/06z TAF period. High
clouds continue to move in from the west with some mid level
clouds along and ahead of a cold front that is currently
dropping south across the area. Winds ahead of the front are
generally light, becoming N or NNE 5-10 kt as the boundary comes
through. Forecast soundings show enough moisture for SCT/BKN CU
on Saturday, especially at ECG where this a low chance for a few
showers prior to sunset. Included a PROB30 to cover the chance
for isolated showers.


Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through the
weekend and into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

- A cold front is currently crossing the waters, leading to a brief
  period of elevated northerly winds this morning

- A prolonged period of slightly elevated onshore flow is
  expected beginning late this weekend and continuing into
  early next week.

Early this morning, a cold front is located over roughly the
northern half of the waters and will continue to progress south this
morning. N to NNE winds become gusty in the wake of the front as
drier and slightly cooler air filters over the waters. Based on
observations of gusts of 20 to 25 knots, opted for a Small Craft
Advisory for the Chesapeake Bay through 10 AM EDT. Winds diminish
later this morning into this afternoon, averaging 10 to 15 knots.

High pressure builds south into the area Sunday into early next week
while weak low pressure develops well off the Carolina coast. The
gradient between these two features will lead to onshore (ENE-NE)
flow starting Sunday and continuing early next week. Wind speeds
will average 10 to 15 knots during this time (highest S), but a
period of 15 to 20 knot winds is possible Sunday afternoon into
Monday south of Cape Henry. Winds relax a bit on Tuesday and
Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas/waves should remain 2 to 3 feet/1 to 2 feet through Sunday,
although a brief increase to ~2 to 3 feet waves in the Chesapeake
Bay is expected this morning with the elevated NNE winds. The
persistent onshore flow will result in building seas next week, with
4 to 5 feet seas forecast by Monday (and continuing through Tuesday
before slowly subsiding). SCAs may be needed for the coastal waters
for seas starting Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/ERI