817
FXUS61 KAKQ 190750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm today with high pressure lingering off the southeast
coast. Scattered showers and storms are likely late this
afternoon and evening as the next cold front approaches. Some
storms could be strong to severe this evening, with damaging
winds and large hail as the main threats. Mainly dry for the
upcoming weekend, with heat and humidity returning late in the
weekend into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and moderately humid today. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
  Heat indices this afternoon around 100 degrees.

- Severe Tstms possible late this afternoon into this evening.
  An Enhanced Risk is now in place for the NW half of our area
  with a Slight Risk for the rest of the area. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the main threats, but a brief tornado
  cannot be ruled out.

Latest analysis reveals low pressure over SE Ontario/lower
Michigan early this morning, with the associated cold front
extending SSE across the western Ohio Valley into the Ozark
plateau. 1020+mb sfc ridging was noted offshore of the southeast
coast early this morning, with some subtle lee troughing noted
just to the west over the piedmont. Aloft, upper ridging remains
centered over the western Atlantic. To the west, a mid- upper
trough was noted over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

A rather warm and humid early morning across the region, with
07z temperatures still in the mid to upper 70s inland to around
80 along the coast. There is a modest SW breeze this morning,
owing to the pressure gradient between the high offshore and low
pressure over the Great lakes.

For today, expect another very warm to hot day across the area,
as the heat ridge hangs on for one more afternoon. Thickness
tools and MOS guidance are in good alignment depicting highs in
the low to mid 90s across the area, which lines up well with our
going forecast. Breezy SW winds do mix out dewpoints just enough
into the upper 60s to low 70s, such that we come in just below
Heat Advisory thresholds once again. However, certainly another
hot summer day across the region for those that have plans
outdoors today.

That daytime heating will provide plenty of fuel to the
increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the approaching storms
MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/KG (including a decent
750-1000 J/KG worth of DCAPE) is modeled by late afternoon. The
dampening mid-level trough edges into the region this afternoon,
with modest cooling aloft serving to steepen h5-7 lapse rates
into the 6.5-7 C/KM range, as deep layer shear increases to
30-40 kt. Expect showers and storms to develop along the pre-
frontal trough to the west between 17-19z (1p-3p), moving W-SW
to E-NE into western portions of the region late this afternoon
into the evening. PoPs have been maintained in the 60-70% PoP
range, in expectation of scattered to numerous storm coverage.
Single and Multi-cell clusters push through the piedmont and
I-95 corridor between 4-8p, then look to eventually congeal into
more of a linear/quasi-linear storm mode east of RIC with
respective convective outflows and better shear likely to be
over the coastal plain. As for main hazards, the Inverted-V
look to regional soundings do portend more of a straight-line
or damaging wind threat, with large hail also a possibility
given the steepening lapse rates. Tornado threat is low-end due
to the strong unidirectional flow, but it is certainly non- zero
with potential supercellular development. SPC has upgraded to a
30% Severe Wind Probability (Enhanced Risk 3/5) over the NW
half of the area, including the RIC metro, northern neck and the
Bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. A Slight Risk remains in
place for the rest of the area, including the peninsulas/Hampton
Roads and NE NC/N OBX. Storms will be moving quickly, so
excessive rainfall is not much as much of a threat at this time,
though again it cannot be ruled out, especially in light of
rainfall of the past week. WPC has placed our area in a Marginal
ERO. As of now, our forecast rainfall accumulation amounts are
well below an inch with localized higher amounts possible.

Clearing out late tonight and cooler with lows in the mid 60s
inland, upper 60s to low 70s along the SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A short-lived reprieve from the hot temperatures Friday, with
  dry conditions and temperatures back to "only" seasonal levels.

After the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures will
briefly "reprieve" from the excessive heat on Friday. The
shortwave will start to move offshore, but NW flow aloft will
linger through the day on Friday. As the shortwave clears the
coast and moves further offshore during the day, cloud cover
will start to clear from NW to SE. This clearing will still
allow temperatures to reach the upper 80s, which is close to
seasonal norms. Dew points also drop into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Heat headlines are not likely to be needed Friday.
Warm and seasonably pleasant Friday night with lows in the 60s
to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures ramp back up over the weekend into early next
  week. Summer heat and moderate humidity levels expected Sunday
  through the middle of next week. Heat headlines are likely to
  be needed for (at least) portions of the area for much of next
  week.

By Saturday, an expansive 500 mb ridge will be gradually moving from
the southern Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Rapid height
rises are forecast over the weekend, as this ~600 dm high
becomes nearly anchored in place over the East Coast for the
first half of next week. Temperatures quickly jump into the mid-
upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday, with inland areas nearing 100
degrees. While some may think this is normal "summer-time
heat", looking back at climate data, Richmond has only recorded
100+ degrees 20 times prior to July throughout the entire
climate record which dates back to 1871. Daily record high max
and min temp info has been placed in the climate section below
for reference. Dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, so
forecast confidence is high that heat indices are very likely to
reach 105 degrees beginning Monday and Heat Advisories will
likely be needed. Heat indices could approach Extreme Heat
Warning Criteria in some areas (110+ degrees) by
Tuesday/Wednesday if the current forecast holds. Either way,
prepare now for an oppressive heat wave that will last from late
this weekend well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is centered offshore of the southeast coast to
begin the 06z/19 TAF period, with low pressure over the upper
Great Lakes and an associated cold front draped across the Ohio
Valley into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. VFR conditions
across area terminals early this morning will prevail this
morning and for much of the day today. SSW winds 5-8 kt become
breezy later this morning with an 8-12kt SSW wind and gusts to
15-25 kt (highest coastal terminals) by late morning and
afternoon. A cold front and upper trough approach from the NW
this aftn, with showers/tstms developing across the mountains by
early aftn. These showers and storms are expected to move SE to
NW into the VA Piedmont by later aftn, reaching the terminals
from 21-03z tonight/early Friday. Showers/tstms, locally strong
tstm wind gusts, and brief sub-VFR conditions are expected to
push E toward the coast Thursday evening, and then move offshore
overnight Thursday night.

Brief sub-VFR conditions and strong tstm wind gusts are
possible at RIC and SBY around and after 21z and 22z,
respectively. A PROB30 group has therefore been appended at both
terminals toward the end of the period. Have added PROB30
groups at ORF/PHF at and just after 00z, but held off at ECG for
now.

Outlook: Looking ahead, Dry and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail Friday through the weekend and into early next week as
strong high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCA for the rivers and bay are in place until late Tonight /early
Friday morning.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms could also bring much higher winds
this evening ahead of a cold front.

-Optimal marine conditions are expected to return by Friday.

Early morning weather analysis shows a weak trough moving across the
Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a 1022mb high pressure sits
offshore of the SE coast. While to the north a low pressure system
is moving across the Great Lakes. The cold front that will be
bringing the thunderstorms this evening is stretched across Ohio
down to Mississippi. The pressure gradient from the high and low
pressure system continues to tighten this morning and winds continue
to remain out of the SW between 10 to 15 kt with some gusts upwards
of 20 kt. Waves this morning are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay
and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Later this morning the pressure
gradient from these two system will continue to increase allowing
winds to increase out of the SW ahead of the approaching front.
Winds for the day will be between 15 to 20 kt with gusts upwards of
25 kt.  SCA have been issued for the bays and rivers from 12z this
morning until 6z Friday for the rivers and 12z Friday for the bay.
This is due to high enough confidence in the forecast that there
will be frequent gusts above 20kt especially close to land ahead of
the approaching front. Across the ocean winds will be very similar
to the bay and there maybe a gust around 25 kt but due to the
uncertainty of prolonged gusts at or above 25kt a SCA have not been
issued for the ocean. As the front approaches the area this evening
it will initiate showers and thunderstorms that will track across
the waters. Some of these thunderstorms maybe severe and will be
bring stronger winds. These hazards will be handled with Special
Marine Warnings as necessary.  After the cold front pushes across
the waters there is potential for a second surge behind the front
that will allow winds this evening to be out of the W around 15 to
20 kt with gusts upwards of 25 kt. These winds will then quickly die
down by FRiday morning as a high pressure moves overhead. This high
will bring optimal marine conditions across the waters as winds will
be ~10kt through the weekend.

Waves today will increase ahead of the approaching cold front.
Wave heights will be between 2 to 3 ft across the central and
northern portion of the bay with the potential of and rouge 4ft
wave. While across the ocean and southern and mouth of the bay waves
will be between 3 to 4 ft. Will note, some of the latest guidance
continues to build 5ft seas across the northern bay zone however,
confidence is not high to add 5ft seas across that zone. As the high
pressure moves over head Friday seas will be between 1 to 2ft across
the ocean and ~1ft across the bay.

In addition to the waves building to 3 to 4 ft a moderate risk for
rips is in place for the northern beaches. While across the south
low rips are expected.upwards of 25 kt. Decided to issue Small
Craft Advisories for these areas with the earlier morning
update; these headlines are in effect through 7 PM this evening.
A lull in the winds is expected later this evening. However,
gusty winds redevelop and persist through most of tonight. A few
gusts around or a little greater than 20 kt are possible in the
lower bay and lower James River, but confidence is not high
enough to issue additional headlines. Similar to today, SW wind
gusts of 20-25 kt are possible in the afternoon hours of
Thursday and a targeted SCA could be necessary in future
forecast updates. As the cold front approaches and crosses the
area Thursday evening, a southwesterly LLJ briefly moves over
and another brief period of elevated southerly flow develops.
Lastly, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is also
expected to cross the waters sometime in the evening or early
overnight hours of Thursday, bringing the potential for
significantly higher winds and waves. These hazards will be
handled with Special Marine Warnings as necessary.

High pressure moves overhead Friday through the weekend, bringing
benign synoptic flow. Cannot rule out brief period of elevated winds
due to sea breezes or thunderstorms, but the overall pattern favors
quiet marine conditions.

Waves in the bay remain in the 1-3 ft range today through Thursday
night, trending down toward 1 ft for Friday into the weekend. Seas
of 3-4 ft are generally expected through early Friday, though may
briefly elevate to ~5 ft in the northern coastal waters Thursday
night with the elevated LLJ winds. Lower seas of 2-3 ft develop
by this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures for yesterday (6/18) were tied
at Norfolk (78 degrees, last in 1944) and Elizabeth City (77,
2017).

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-22   101(1942)    99(1981)    98(1988)    98(1942)
06-23   101(1988)    99(2024)    99(1988)    99(2011)
06-24   102(2010)   101(1880)   100(1914)    99(2010)
06-25   100(1952)   100(1952)    99(1914)   100(1952)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-22    76(2015)    79(2015)    75(1988)    76(1981)
06-23    78(2024)    79(2015)    75(1929)    78(2015)
06-24    78(2010)    79(1994)    75(1969)    76(2011)
06-25    76(1921)    79(1880)    75(1909)    76(1949)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...HET
CLIMATE...