547
FXUS61 KAKQ 021941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
341 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below
average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front
approaches Thursday into Friday with slightly warmer temperatures
and a chance for showers. A stronger cold front crosses the area
late Saturday into Saturday night. Cooler and drier weather
returns Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the
  bay/coast through early evening.

- Not as cool tonight with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Afternoon wx analysis shows high pressure centered over New
England/Atlantic Canada, which is ridging toward the area. In
addition, an upper low remains centered to our north with the trough
axis over the Mid-Atlantic. It is partly-mostly cloudy (w/ SCT-BKN
cumulus) with temps in the mid to locally upper 70s. Isolated light
showers remain possible through early evening near the bay/coast.
Will continue with slight chance PoPs to account for this. Precip
chances drop to near zero shortly after sunset. Not quite as cool
tonight with lows generally in the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure
  moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the NW.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible Thursday afternoon-evening,
  mainly across north and northwest portions of the area.

- The warming trend continues on Friday with dry conditions expected.

We begin to see a warming trend on Wednesday as high pressure
gradually shifts offshore and winds veer to the E-SE. Partly cloudy
skies are expected with afternoon cumulus. Forecast highs are a few
degrees warmer than today (upper 70s-lower 80s). Strong low pressure
over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday.
Noticeably warmer and a bit more humid with widespread mid 80s
(lower 80s on the eastern shore). Scattered tstms are expected to
develop to our W/NW Thu aftn. The storms will push eastward toward
the area during the late aftn/evening, but are expected to weaken as
they do so given that instability will be more limited farther east.
In fact, model soundings show little to no surface-based instability
east of I-95. Will keep 20-30% PoPs during the aftn/evening across
the NW half of the FA, and am still not expecting widespread rain
with areal average QPF of only 0.05-0.15". The front washes out over
the area Thursday night as storms gradually weaken. Winds will
actually increase out of the SW on Friday with dry (but more humid)
wx expected. Forecast highs Fri are in the mid 80s-90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with
  highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

- There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday/Monday.

The low that is progged to be near the Great Lakes on Wed/Thu will
track into eastern Canada by the weekend and will drag a stronger
cold front toward the area. That front approaches and crosses the
area later Saturday into Saturday night. Saturday will be the
warmest day of the period, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to
lower 90s. While deep moisture looks to be lacking with this front
as well, there is a 20-30% chance for showers/storms Saturday
afternoon/evening. Cooler/drier weather returns Sunday with highs in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Similar conditions are expected into
early next week. Looking farther out, there is some signal in the
ensembles for (potentially) more widespread rain later next week,
but this is beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR through the 18z/02 TAF period. SCT-BKN CU/SC around
3000-4500 ft AGL will prevail through early evening before
clouds thin out tonight. Cannot rule out a stray shower through
00z at SBY/ORF/PHF, but overall confidence is low. Dry/VFR wx
continues on Wednesday with SCT-BKN midday/aftn CU. NE winds of
8-12 kt will continue through early evening before becoming
light tonight. Winds become E at ~5 kt on Wednesday.

Outlook: VFR/dry from Wed night-early Thu aftn. There is a chc
for isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs
at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Friday, with a chance of isolated
aftn/evening tstms at all terminals on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for south of the VA/NC
  border through the evening as seas remain elevated.

- A period of elevated southerly winds is likely late Thursday afternoon
  into the overnight across the Chesapeake Bay and northern
  coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues across the southern
  beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches
  through tomorrow.

The latest weather analysis shows high pressure continuing over the
area with onshore NE flow at 10-15 kt. Seas remain elevated south of
the VA/NC border at 4-6 ft. These seas are forecast to decline
tonight with the SCA expiring at 7 PM tonight. The high pressure
will remain over the area through Wednesday, allowing for benign
marine conditions after tonight. Winds will remain out of the NE
through late Wednesday before shifting to be out of the S/SE
Thursday morning. A cold front will move through the local waters
Thursday afternoon to overnight bringing potentially elevated winds
across the Ches. Bay and the northern coastal waters. Winds will
likely reach 15-20 kt over the bay and ~20 kt for the coastal
waters. The current local wind probs how a 50-70% chance for
sustained 18kt winds in the bay and up to a 100% chance over the
northern coastal waters. SCA will likely be needed Thursday
afternoon to early Friday morning, especially for the bay. A second
cold front will cross the local waters this weekend, which could
bring additional SCA conditions.

A High Risk for rip currents remains in effect for the southern
beaches and a Moderate Risk for the southern beaches. This will
continue through tomorrow. A Moderate Risk is expected across all
beaches on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average
Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below:

- RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992.
- SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008.
- ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...