503
FXUS61 KAKQ 040735
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
235 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather continues into next week. Chances are increasing in a
period of accumulating snow Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Precipitation chances over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday
afternoon into Friday evening before ending. An unsettled pattern
continues through Monday with a low chance for light additional
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 930 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear and cold tonight.

Surface high pressure remains centered along the Carolina and
Virginia coastal plain, with compressed westerly flow aloft.
High clouds are passing across the local area this evening, but
will have little if any affect on overnight temperatures. With
cal or light wind, overnight lows will mostly bottom out in the
mid- upper 20s inland and around 30F along the coast, with
localized lower 20s across sheltered rural inland locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night.

- There is increasing potential for light to moderate snow
  changing to a wintry mix Friday into Friday night.

The first area of high pressure slides offshore Thursday, resulting
in moderating temperatures with highs in the mid-upper 40s N to
lower 50s S. A dry cold front drops through the area later Thursday
afternoon and evening with a 1028-1030mb high pressure building to
the N Thursday night into early Friday. It will be cold Thursday
night into early Friday morning with overnight lows in the lower 20s
NW to lower 30s SE. The flow aloft will generally be zonal to begin
the day, but will amplify to some extent as a trough digs into the
upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure gradually retreats to
the NE Friday. A powerful upper jet upwards of 180kt is progged to
extend from the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. A
wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the stationary
front Friday beneath the RRQ of the upper jet with some assistance
from a sheared shortwave trough from 700-500mb.

There is increasing potential for a period of snow transitioning to
a wintry mix or rain Friday across most of the area, remaining
wintry longer to the NW, and mainly rain for far SE VA and most of
NE NC. The 12z EPS increased probs for >1" of snow to 70-100% for
most of the area (assuming a 10:1 ratio and idealized accumulation),
with probs dropping sharply for >3" to only around 10%. The 12z GEFS
remains lower, but has trended up to 30-60%. As moisture shallows
late Friday afternoon into Friday night, precipitation could change
to light freezing rain from central VA to the Piedmont where light
ice accretion is possible. Additionally, there is some potential for
light freezing drizzle inland continuing through much of Friday
night. Confidence is high in a light accumulation of snow with 1-2"
possible across a portion of the area (likely central VA). However,
confidence is low in exact freezing rain totals which will be highly
dependent upon how much moisture is available with this system. Both
the NAM and GFS forecast soundings showed drying conditions in the
DGZ from Friday afternoon into Friday night. This is key as it
essentially makes the difference between staying all snow and having
higher snowfall totals or transitioning to freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain. It`s worth noting that the NBM 90th percentile for
snow has increased to 3-4" across the NW half of the FA with the NBM
90th percentile for freezing rain showing the potential for up to
around 0.25" of freezing rain across south central and southern VA.
If moisture is greater than currently modeled, snowfall totals could
be closer to the high end potential from NBM 90th with minimal
freezing rain. Conversely, if the dry air in the DGZ is realized and
occurs earlier in the day on Friday, freezing rain totals could
increase with snowfall totals decreasing.

Temperatures will potentially be quite cold for early December
during the day Friday. With morning temps in the 20s across much of
the are Friday morning, snow will likely have no issue accumulating,
including untreated roads. As such, it will not take a lot of snow
to cause slippery road conditions. Additionally, temps may struggle
to get above freezing Friday across the Piedmont with mid 30s along
the I-95 corridor. The warmest temps Friday will likely be along the
coast where mid-upper 40s are possible. Any slush or water on the
roadways will likely refreeze Friday night given lows in the 20s
expected (away from the coast).

Saturday will be mostly dry and cool with highs in the mid-upper 40s
(most in the mid 40s) and lows Saturday night in the 20s. A few
light showers are possible across far SE VA/NE NC Saturday, however,
any precip that falls should be plain rain (as opposed to wintry
precip).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Wednesday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- There is a low chance for additional precipitation Sunday
  night into Monday as a surface low develops offshore.

The general model consensus is for primarily dry conditions on
Sunday apart from a slight chance for a few light showers across far
SE VA/NE NC. Uncertainty increases for Monday with a range of
possibilities on the table. The ensembles show a shortwave trough
moving across the area on Monday underneath a longwave trough across
the East Coast. The ensemble clusters show a surface low developing
in response to this shortwave off the Southeast coast. While this
solution taken verbatim would suggest minimal (if any) precip for
the local area, any shift NW could quickly change the setup from an
offshore low with little to no impact to an impactful winter system.
A few things that are worth noting are that the NAO remains
weakly negative into Monday while the PNA quickly goes from
negative on Saturday to positive on Monday. These
teleconnections are favorable for cold air across the local
area (NBM highs for Monday are in the mid- upper 30s for most
and low-mid 40s across SE VA/NE NC). Therefore the cold air will
be in place. The question that will need to be ironed out with
ensemble trends in the upcoming days is, does the low remain
suppressed (like most models currently show) or does it continue
to trend NW?

Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains high with respect to the
forecast. However, cool weather likely continues with perhaps
another chance for precipitation in the mid to late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Thursday...

High pressure remains in place overnight, well out ahead of a
cold front approaching from the NW. Mainly clear overnight aside
from some passing high clouds with light winds. VFR conditions
continue today, with a dry cold front crossing the area
this afternoon, bringing SCT-BKN mid/high clouds. Winds shift
to the NW and become a bit breezy across the Eastern Shore with
gusts up to ~20kt at SBY by aftn. Elsewhere, winds will
generally be 10 kt or less. By the end of the TAF period,
precipitation will be moving into western locations, which will
likely be -SN to start with. This could create VIS restrictions
and slick runways.

Outlook: Low pressure will bring degraded flight conditions
starting Friday morning with snow overspreading most of the
terminals. Expecting precip to turn to a wintry mix for the
northern terminals in the afternoon and -RA/SN changing to
mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Regardless of
p-type, a prolonged period with flight restrictions down to IFR
thresholds or lower is expected. Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some
low chances for precipitation and the potential for periodic
flight restrictions may linger in the SE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry cold frontal passage this afternoon will create elevated
northerly winds into the early overnight hours.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs
may be possible early next week.

Early morning surface analysis shows broad high pressure across the
region as a cold front slowly pushes into the Ohio River Valley.
Winds are light and seas are 2ft across the north and 3-4ft down
south. The first half of today will be benign, but the
aforementioned cold front will slide through this afternoon shifting
winds out of the north/northwest. As the colder air rushes in, winds
will increase once again, though speeds don`t look to be as strong
this time. 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt will overspread the waters
from north to south this afternoon and evening. It`s just enough to
warrant low-end Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay and
lower James River. Also opted to add the northern coastal waters
north of Parramore Island to account for seas building to 5ft. Wind
speeds won`t be quite SCA criteria across the coastal waters, but
will be gusty nonetheless. Winds and seas will subside after 07Z
allowing the SCAs to end. Additionally, a weather system will bring
precipitation to the area early Friday morning through the overnight
hours. With the cold air in place, a rain/snow mix is likely over
the waters Friday morning, especially the rivers and Bay. A
transition to primarily rain is expected Friday afternoon. This
precip could certainly cause visibility reductions.

Scattered rain chances look to linger across the southern waters
into the weekend, though for now, winds are expected to remain on
the benign side with seas of 2-3ft and waves around 1-2ft. The next
system may move in on Monday, which has a good chance of bringing
another round of gusty winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ012.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-
     509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...JKP