583
FXUS61 KAKQ 251041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
541 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system brings a chance for some light showers this
afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms possible tonight. Lingering showers are possible
on Wednesday as well, with cooler and drier conditions returning
Wednesday night behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier
conditions will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches today, with a few showers
  possible across western portions of the area. Showers are
  likely across most of the area tonight, with a few
  thunderstorms possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through tonight.

Latest analysis shows ~1026 mb high pressure centered off the Mid-
Atlantic coast early this morning, with a weak low pressure system
at the sfc and aloft tracking from the Plains to the Mid MS River
Valley. A stronger low is taking shape in the northern Plains. It is
chilly with temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s. High clouds are
beginning to overspread western portions of the FA due to
WAA/isentropic lift in advance of the approaching low.

The above mentioned weak southern stream system weakens as it tracks
toward the interior NE CONUS later today/tonight, while the stronger
low deepens and eventually occludes over the upper Midwest/western
Great Lakes. The warm front associated with the initial system lifts
across the region today, with associated weak overrunning moisture
to bring a gradual thickening and lowering of cloud cover during the
day. Despite the increasing cloud cover, the best forcing associated
with this system will likely miss us to the N/NW, so am not
expecting much more than a little bit of light rain over the western
1/3 of the FA this aftn. Despite the increasing cloud cover,
southerly flow will allows temps to moderate into the 60s for most,
with upper 60s-70F readings expected across SE VA/NE NC. The only
exception will be across the far west, where increasing clouds and
midday/aftn light rain likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in
the 55-60F range.

The warm front lifts well to our north tonight, with temperatures
struggling to drop below 60F with a breezy S wind. Showers and
isolated tstms develop to our west this evening and are progged to
slide across the area from west to east tonight (mainly from 11 PM-6
AM). Will keep the mention of thunder in the forecast through the
night as model soundings continue to show a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE moving in. With no surface-based instability, not expecting
any stronger storms. Areal avg rainfall amounts will be 0.1-0.25"
through tonight (which will actually be the bulk of the rain from
this system).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) will
  be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, with
  dry conditions returning Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and breezy from Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.

The stronger second system over the Great Lakes is progged to track
NE into Ontario/Quebec from Wednesday into Wednesday night. This
system will drag a fairly strong cold front through the FA Wed
evening-early Wed night. Another round of isolated to scattered
showers, perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are
possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, with the highest
precip chances shifting east to SE VA/NE NC. Not that optimistic
with respect to precip coverage on Wed, as it looks like most areas
will see a few hundredths of an inch at best as the best deep-
layered moisture/upper forcing will be to our N/NE. Mild in the
quasi-warm sector on Wed, with highs in the lower 70s in most areas.
Lows fall sharply behind the front into the mid 30s-40F Wed night,
as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day as deep troughing
establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb high pressure
builds over the Plains. Highs will only be in the upper 40s-lower
50s with a WNW wind gusting to 25 mph. Cold Thursday night with lows
falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s. With the high still to our W/NW,
there will be a bit of a breeze so radiational cooling conditions
won`t be quite ideal (but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM
thus the lows in the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with increasing rain chances
  by Monday and Tuesday.

The deep trough remains over the eastern CONUS Fri AM before the
flow aloft flattens out by Saturday. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds again gusting up
to 25 mph. Winds may become light or calm Fri night/Sat AM as the
1032+mb high settles over the region. This will likely be the
coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower-mid 20s
in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in typically
cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny skies, dry conditions,
and cooler temperatures then linger through the weekend. However,
increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying airmass likely allow
for temps to moderate a bit over the weekend into early next week,
as a deep trough builds over the Rockies allowing the flow aloft to
become SW. Several disturbances in the flow are expected to track
over the area early next week as well, which will increase rain
chances (and potentially allow for a more widespread wetting
rain).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 540 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening
before CIGs lower tonight. High clouds will gradually increase
from W-E this morning with a calm to very light SE wind. Clouds
thicken and lower to 5-10kft by the aftn/early evening, but
mainly dry conditions are expected, aside from a ~20% chc of
light rain at RIC later in the aftn. The wind is expected to
become SSE 5-10kt later today.

A better chance for rain showers and periods of degraded flight
conditions arrive tonight, primarily after 03z with MVFR to IFR
CIGs likely at RIC/SBY/PHF as a weak warm front lifts through
the region. VFR/MVFR conditions likely prevail through most of
the night at ORF/ECG. The best chance of showers is between
05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated tstms can`t be ruled out, but
strong/severe storms aren`t expected. Winds become S-SSW at
10-12kt with gusts to 20kt tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are possible Wednesday
aftn/evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front. VFR
conditions prevail Wednesday night through Saturday as a dry and
colder airmass overspreads the region. A WNW wind of 8-12kt
with gusts up to 20kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier
Friday with a NW wind of 10-15kt gusting to 20-25kt. High
pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bay, coastal
  waters north of Parramore Island, and the tidal rivers for
  this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Cold front pushes through Wednesday night with another round of
  SCAs likely for the second half of the week as winds remain
  elevated.

Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure persisting over
the local waters. This high will continue to shift further offshore
through the day today ahead of a strong trough and low pressure
system moving through the Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. As
this happens, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit over our area
allowing for southerly winds to increase slightly later this evening
into the overnight hours. Small Craft Advisories are out for the
Chesapeake Bay, tidal rivers, and coastal waters north of Parramore
Island for winds of 18-21kt and gusts up to 25kt. Additionally,
waves and seas will increase to 2-3ft in the Bay and 4-5ft in the
northern coastal zones. There will also be a chance of rain into
Wednesday morning, with a rumble of thunder or two possible. SW
winds will subside to 12-16kt during the day on Wednesday as seas
hover around 4ft, with 5ft occasionally possible closer to 20nm out
across the north.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night
turning winds northwesterly. A colder airmass will move in behind
the front resulting in winds increasing across the waters. Another
round of SCAs will likely be needed at least for the rivers, Sound,
and Bay for sustained winds of 18-22kt Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Winds may briefly try to subside just below SCA thresholds
during the day on Thursday, but will pick back up again overnight
into Friday. These look to be the strongest winds of the period as
of now with gusts up to 30kt expected. Latest wind probabilities
don`t show much of a chance for any gales as of this writing, but
solid SCAs are expected or most of the local waters. During this
timeframe, waves in the Bay will increase to 3-4ft with seas
remaining at 4-5ft. Winds and waves/seas will subside Friday night
into Saturday as high pressure builds in overhead.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP