421
FXUS61 KAKQ 011807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
107 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered north of the area today in the
wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts
region later tonight into Tuesday, with a brief period of
freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont possible early Tuesday
morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for
the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the
region Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, mostly sunny, and cool this afternoon.

Sunny/mostly sunny and dry conditions continue this afternoon
as high pressure settles to our north. Temperatures this
afternoon range from the low to mid 40s. High temperatures today
should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and remain
in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight
ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially
should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this
evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing
a degree or two after midnight.

A stronger system is still expected to impact the region later
tonight into Tuesday. Weak low pressure develops along the Gulf
coast later this evening into tonight ahead of an approaching
trough. Widespread precipitation quickly works into the area
after ~2-3 AM from the west and rapidly spreads eastward.
Precipitation likely starts out as a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain across our NW counties before quickly turning
over to plain rain from SE to NW by sunrise. Across far
western/northwestern portions of Louisa and Fluvanna counties, a
light glaze of ice accumulation is possible (especially on
elevated/untreated surfaces) where temps will linger at or
below freezing, allowing for the freezing rain/sleet mix to hang
on longer. All wintry precip comes to an end by ~7 AM, with a
cold rain then expected. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for Louisa and Fluvanna counties later tonight into
Tuesday AM.

Elsewhere, a beneficial steady rainfall is expected later
tonight into Tuesday. The heaviest precip is still expected to
be Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as low pressure
approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. PWATs
also increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the
remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away
from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a
good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and
points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any
flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of
the system and dry antecedent conditions.

Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas,
with milder temps (50s to around 60) across far SE VA and NE NC
(where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to
warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW
  portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW
  portions of the area for a light ice accumulation.

Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing
low. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and
upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast.

High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry
conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high
temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s
coast).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching
(dry) cold front.

- Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of
  the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of
  the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the
  specific details at this range.

Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold
front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs
will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold
air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows
dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper
teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM.

Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into
Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across
the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful
wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of
the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the
coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a
messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday
night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing
rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in
model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to
the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the
forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially
lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later
Saturday and especially by next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions at all sites to start off the forecast period. Mid-
high clouds increase this afternoon and especially tonight
ahead of a low pressure system. Rain moves in after 06z Tuesday
from SW to NE and flight conditions are expected to quickly
degrade to MVFR and then IFR by ~12z Tue. Widespread rain/IFR
conditions are expected Tuesday morning through the remainder of
the period. Winds continue to trend down this afternoon and
evening and turn to the E/NE.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night through Thursday.
Another system may approach by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EST Monday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early
  this afternoon in the wake of a cold front.

- Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday
  afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories
  are likely, with low-end gales possible.

A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A
NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs
remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a
NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early
this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have
a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have
been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next
few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High
pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening,
before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for
the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters
through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central
coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters
through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind
becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt
across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry
later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to
10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S.

Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday
morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday
aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping
across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will
be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind
shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished
to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from
the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust
probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for
the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this
time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst
01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night
with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA
surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the
Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft.

High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night,
before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected
to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the
potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system
potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence
remains low at this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ048-509.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638-654.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ