536
FXUS61 KAKQ 011713
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
113 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer
temperatures and a chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Onshore flow leads to a few more clouds today with comfortable
  temperatures and humidity levels.

Early morning analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered in
southern Ontario but ridging south into the local area. Surface
troughing off the SE CONUS has moved a bit farther offshore. An
upper trough/closed low remains nearly stationary over the eastern
CONUS. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some
low stratus moving onshore across the OBX, generally south of the
Albemarle Sound.

Expecting another gorgeous day today with temperatures in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees and low humidity. Still a bit breezy from
the NE today (especially near the coast) as the pressure gradient
remains steep between high pressure to the north and the trough
offshore. Expecting a bit more in the way of cumulus clouds today
with continued onshore flow. A stray shower is possible near the
coast in NE NC this afternoon but latest CAM guidance shows very
little support for this scenario. Clouds thin out this evening with
low temps falling back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and
NE NC. A few spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds
will be light with less cloud cover expected away from the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday as high
  pressure moves offshore.

Continued dry and pleasant Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Not quite as cool
overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warming up
a bit on Wednesday as high pressure translates offshore and winds
swing around the SE. Afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s with dew
points in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. 00z guidance is
in good agreement keeping the entire area dry Wednesday and
Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows inch upward
as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday
  into early Friday as a weakening front approaches the region
  from the west.

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Thursday through
  Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward
the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger
showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with
PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of
the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid
80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back
into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers increases into
Thursday night and early Friday, especially across the northern
half of the area. QPF continues to look rather light with a few
tenths to perhaps a quarter inch of precip. 00z models show the
front washing out across the region with winds remaining S or SW
into Saturday. Accordingly, no longer expecting an airmass
change or even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact,
forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on
Friday with 60s dew points. Warmest day looks to be Saturday
ahead of another front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon
highs range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep
moisture looks to be lacking with this front as well. The front
is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a
return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/01 TAF period.
SCT-BKN cumulus (3500-5000 ft AGL) will prevail through this
evening before clouds thin out tonight. Tuesday will be similar
to today with SCT-BKN cumulus from late morning-early evening.
There is a 20% chc of showers at SBY/ORF/ECG during the day, but
won`t mention any precip in the TAFs given PoPs/confidence are
very low. Gusty NE winds (to ~20 kt) will continue near the
coast through early evening before diminishing to 5-10 kt
tonight. Lighter NE winds are expected on Tue.

Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for
isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at
RIC/SBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

- A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected into Tuesday.
  Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the
  coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay today into Tuesday.

Early this morning, weak low pressure is located well offshore.
Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure continues to build from the north.
The pressure gradient between the two features has resulted
increased NE winds over the waters. Latest observations show NE
winds around 15 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots over the
southern half of the waters and 10 to 15 knots further north.
Seas/waves also continue to build, with 5 to 6 ft (locally up to 7
ft) seas south and 3 to 5 ft north. Waves in the bay range from 2 to
3 ft (3 to 4 ft at the mouth).

High pressure will remain in place into Wednesday. The area of low
pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward
today into tonight. The gradient between the high to our north and
low to our south will remain tightened, leading increased onshore
flow, especially across our southern waters, today into tonight.
Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest
S). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
through today and into Tuesday. SCAs are also in effect for the
Chesapeake Bay into this afternoon/evening. By this evening, the
coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to
lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with
mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast for much of the remainder of
the forecast period.

The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas today, with
4 to 6 ft seas forecast. Will need to keep an eye on especially the
southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea
heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as
necessary. Seas will remain elevated into Tuesday before gradually
starting to subside below SCA criteria later Tuesday.

The rip current risk will is high for the southern beaches today,
with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk
will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will
remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore
normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds
and seas will both be subsiding.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average
Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below:

- RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992.
- SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008.
- ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/NB
CLIMATE...AKQ