918
FXUS61 KAKQ 120905
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
505 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low tracks north toward the area today, with a
secondary low developing offshore of the DelMarVa coast. Rain,
windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are all likely
today. The low lingers just offshore Monday, before pulling away Tuesday
as high pressure builds to our northwest. Dry and seasonable
weather returns and prevails for the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A coastal storm impacts the region through tonight, bringing
  rain, strong winds, and moderate to major tidal flooding.
  Impacts will be greatest at the immediate coast later this
  morning into the early evening hours.

~995 mb low pressure is centered about 100 miles SSE of Cape Fear,
NC as of 3:30 AM this morning. North of the low, a rain shield
(of light to moderate intensity) extends northward into most of
NC and central and southeast VA. Mostly dry conditions still
persist on the MD Eastern and in our NW Piedmont counties, but
this should change soon. Temperatures range through the lower-
mid 60s.

The low will lift slowly northward toward the Carolina coast
through the rest of this morning. Meanwhile, a secondary low is
expected to develop offshore of the DelMarVa coast on the
northeastern flank of the warm front by this afternoon. These
two low centers are expected to interact with each other over
the next 24 hrs or so, though the precise evolution of this
still remain quite uncertain. Light rain will continue to
increase in coverage for most of our forecast area today with
PoPs 70-100%. By later this afternoon, the rain becomes less
focused and more showery/drizzly as the remnant low lingers to
our S and the offshore warm front pushes N and secondary low
spin to our NE. Thus, PoPs begin to drop off, but remain 30-50%
areawide into tonight. There has been a significant downward
trend in rain totals with most areas seeing less than an inch.
The best potential for 1-2" remains over SE VA and NE NC, but
even these amounts are quite optimistic based on current radar
trends and the latest CAMs. In terms of temps, went a few
degrees below NBM given the widespread clouds and precip.
Forecast highs are in the mid 60s.

The main impacts remain the coastal hazards, in the form of wind and
coastal flooding (see section below for more coastal flooding info).
E-NE winds will increase substantially over the next few hours as
the low inches N and will be greatest along and north of the
leading edge of the coastal warm front. Peak winds occur from
around sunrise into the early-mid afternoon for NE NC and SE VA,
with the peak a bit later (this afternoon into the evening) for
locations adjacent to the middle and northern Chesapeake Bay
and the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Wind Advisories are in effect for
most areas near and just inland from the coastline for gusts of
40-50 mph, with High Wind Warnings for those zones immediately
bordering the ocean for gusts 50-55 mph (locally 60 mph). Note
the High Wind Warning was expanded to coastal Currituck County a
few hours ago, with it remaining in effect for VA Beach,
Northampton and Accomack Counties on the VA Eastern Shore, and
the MD beaches. Wind gusts inland average 25-35 mph. Breezy
conditions persist into tonight as the winds turn to the N with
the secondary low moving further NE.

Heading into Monday, the evolution of the aforementioned lows will
dictate the placement of precip. The highest coverage of lingering
showers or drizzle is favored from the Northern Neck into the VA and
MD Eastern Shore. QPF Monday should be quite light, generally a
quarter inch or less. Skies average overcast or mostly cloudy closer
to the coast, with some potential for breaks in the clouds in the I-
95 corridor and especially into the Piedmont. Highs again remain on
the cooler side and in the mid-upper 60s. It will also remain on the
breezy side with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Drier conditions return Tuesday as the low finally exits.

- Sunny and very pleasant Wednesday.

The stagnant upper low (and remnant sfc lows) will be kicked well
out to sea Tuesday by an approaching upper trough in SE Canada and a
building ridge across the central CONUS. In general, guidance has
trended a bit quicker with this evolution, with none of the
deterministic runs lingering the low near the coast Tuesday (as some
did show this yesterday). N-NW flow through the entire column will
funnel drier air toward the region and comfortable/seasonable/dry wx
is expected for most of the area. However, there will be some
lingering clouds near the coast. High temperatures range from
the upper 60s near the coast to around 70 F in the I-95 corridor
to the lower 70s across the Piedmont. Should the low and clouds
clear quicker, these temps would end up being a bit warmer.
Lows Tuesday night in the low-mid 50s.

High pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, builds SE toward the
region Wednesday. Therefore, expect a continuation of the dry
conditions. Current indications are for a very nice day with highs
temps in the 70s under a sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler Thursday behind a dry cold front. Otherwise, dry
  and seasonable to end the week.

- Some frost potential exists Thursday night.

The synoptic pattern heading into the later half of the week
favors continued dry wx with a tall ridge axis extending through
the Great Lakes region and a trough off the NE CONUS coast. At
the surface, high pressure persists to our NW. Noticeably
cooler air is expected by Thursday as a dry cold front slides
through and a shortwave dives southward into New England. Highs
Thursday will be in the low to middle 60s. There is increasing
potential for lows in the 30s inland Thursday night, with 40s at
the immediate coast. Will need to keep an eye on any frost
possibilities, as it`s that time of the year. A slow moderating
trend in the temperatures begins Friday, with a more significant
warmup possible by the weekend as a ridge axis approaches from
the W.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC coast this
morning. Widespread cloud cover continues over the area this
morning, with a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs. Widespread light to
moderate rainfall also extends through NE NC and into central
and SE VA. Expect degraded flight conditions (due to both low
CIGs and reduced VSBY from rain) to persist through the morning
and most of today as the low pressure system moves further N.
By later today, the nature of precip should become rather light,
with pockets of light rain and/or drizzle continuing into at
least the first part of tonight. Widespread IFR-LIFR CIGs are
also expected areawide tonight.

Winds will increase through the early morning hours today as the
pressure gradient tightens. At ORF and ECG, NE winds of 25-30 kt
with gusts up to 40-45 kt are expected later this morning into
the first part of the afternoon. Peak gusts of ~25 kt and ~30 kt
are forecast at RIC and PHF, respectively. The winds will
increase a bit later at SBY, with gusts peaking around 35 kt
this afternoon. Winds should slowly decrease heading into this
evening and tonight.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR CIGs, elevated winds, and light showers will
continue to be possible Sunday night into Monday as low
pressure lingers offshore. Improving conditions are expected by
Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday..

Key Messages:

- Intense low pressure off the Carolina coast slowly lifts north
  today, bringing strong Gale conditions for most, with Storm
  Warnings in effect for the Ocean and mouth of the Bay.

- Winds remain elevated Monday through Wednesday as the low is
  slow to move away from the region, with high pressure
  gradually building in from the NW.

Strong low pressure (~995 mb) is located off the coast of
southeast NC, with ~1028mb high pressure off to the NE of the
local area. N/NE winds are gusting up to 50 kt in the vicinity
of the main sfc low across from Hatteras southward and over the
Pamlico sound. Locally, winds are ramping up now, with gusts to
35-40 kt being observed into our NE NC waters, with winds
generally in the 20-25 kt range with gusts to 30-35 kt
elsewhere. Seas are now up to 10-14 ft over the NE NC ocean
zone, and 7-11 ft elsewhere. Waves in the Bay are 3-4 ft N, and
4-6 ft S.

No major changes with respect to the forecast, but did add the
NC ocean zones to a Storm Warning through this aftn for gusts to
~50 kt. The general consensus is that this core of the main sfc
feature lingers down along the coast of SE NC/northern SC today
and into tonight (not moving that far north given the placement
underneath an upper low). However, diffluent flow aloft off the
mid-Atlantic coast should allow the entire system to elongate,
with a bit of a secondary low developing well to the NNE, along
or just off the Delmarva coast by this evening.

This scenario results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds
across the area, likely peaking this morning/early aftn across
the coastal waters from VA Beach southward, then ramping up by
late aftn into this evening farther north as the secondary sfc
low deepens. Peak wind gusts will be up to 50 kt on the Ocean
and mouth of the Bay (where Storm Warnings are in effect). Peak
wind gusts are 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and
lower James and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers where Gale
Warnings are in effect. One potential development is that some
of the guidance shows another uptick in winds this evening
(across the Bay) as they shift from NE to more of a due
northerly direction in response to the secondary low off the
Delmarva coast (this is still expected to peak in the ~45kt
range for gusts so the Gale warnings remain as is).


With the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the
region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday
as drier air moves in as sfc high pressure builds in from the
NW. N winds should remain in high- end SCA levels during that
period. The gradient finally starts to relax Thursday with
improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast to peak in the
15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with occasional waves up to
25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft,
with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease
next week, so will the seas, but only gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM EDT Sunday..

Latest tidal anomalies are ~ 2ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the
Bay and zones along the Ocean in SE VA/NE NC, tapered to ~1 foot
farther north. As NE winds continue to increase through this
morning, expect the rise in anomalies to continue, with little
change to the expected water levels by the high tide cycle this
aftn (perhaps coming in a few tenths lower in some spots). The
high tide, occurring early this aftn along the Ocean, and
through the later aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time for
peak water levels with this event, the possible exception being
at Ocean City where the following tide late tonight could be
slightly higher. Either way, widespread moderate to major
coastal flooding is expected during this period from the
northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into
the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most
locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in
effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with the
high tide cycle tonight for areas along the MD shore of the
upper Bay so may issue an Advisory for that (though this could
underperform as strong NE winds ensue). The highest probs for
achieving Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX
to VA Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions
up the James river and the York River through Yorktown. The
current CFW covers the next 2 high tide cycles (through Monday
morning), but some areas may need to be extended through Monday
evening. Did not do this just yet given uncertainty in the
precise evolution of the coastal system, and potential for some
offshore component of the ind direction on Monday (to NNW),
which could lower water levels.

The current forecast is for many areas in the lower Bay/James
river to see flooding that has not been observed in at least a
few years if not longer, with top 10 levels likely.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ024-025.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MDZ025.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015>017.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ102.
     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ099-100.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for VAZ098>100.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-097-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078-
     521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ082>086-089-
     090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ084-086-523.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-638.
     Storm Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637.
     Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.
     Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654-656.
     Storm Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ