177
FXUS61 KAKQ 141858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into midweek with
scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will be possible each day before the heat
rebuilds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect through late tonight for most of our VA
  counties just inland of the Chesapeake Bay, and has been
  expanded to include Dorchester and Wicomico in MD.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the convection
  this evening and tonight.

Convection has developed along a sea breeze boundary in Hampton
Roads area, and has remained relatively stationary, prompting the
issuance of a Flash Flood Warnings for portions of Norfolk and VA
Beach. Otherwise, it has remained mostly quiet across the remainder
of the local area aside from the occasional pop-up sea breeze shower
along the coast and Eastern Shore. GOES Visible imagery is
highlighting a widespread cumulus field across basically the
entirety of the forecast area. Local radars are detecting a line of
storm to the west of our area that are slowly approaching our
piedmont counties.

This afternoon`s setup is featuring a similar environment to the
past few days with ample instability, minimal inhibition, and
anomalously high PW values. Shear will continue to be a limiting
factor. With the steering flow being almost non-existent, the main
threat will continue to be flash-flooding, though strong winds are
possible from water-loaded downdrafts. The sea breeze convection
will continue to push out outflow boundaries, so this could prolong
convection in SE VA and NE NC for a few hours. A weak shortwave will
move across the area just to our north this evening into tonight. As
this is a transient feature, these storms will likely not be quite
as stagnant as the ongoing daytime storms and be more
linear/organized, but will still bring very heavy rainfall to the
area that could produce additional flooding concerns. These slower
moving storms, combined with PW values of 2"+, will lead to periods
of heavy rainfall for localized areas across our forecast area this
evening into tonight. With the antecedent rainfall we have seen over
the past few days, flash-flood guidance continues to be lower,
especially in more vulnerable areas such as the Richmond metro and
adjacent areas, so it will not take much rainfall to lead to
flooding. WPC has a majority of our forecast area in a Slight ERO
today, and scattered instances of flash-flooding are possible. A
Marginal ERO is in place across far SE VA and eastern North
Carolina.

Convection will taper off from west to east overnight, but could be
more prolonged than initially thought. CAMs have trended a little
slower, so have extended the Flood Watch until 6 am to account for
uncertainties in the timing. Overnight temperatures will drop into
the lower to mid 70s. The development of patchy fog is again a
possibility early tomorrow morning, and areas that receive rainfall
this evening into tonight may see areas of dense fog closer to
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday and Wednesday with
  additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls
  NW of the area.

The front that is currently draped across the Ohio River Valley will
likely inch a little closer to our area by Tuesday morning but is
expected to stall to our northwest. This setup will bring yet
another day of afternoon storms capable of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash-flooding. WPC continues to
highlight our area with at least a Marginal ERO for now on Tuesday,
though would not be surprised if this is upgraded to a Slight ERO
due to the already saturated ground and the rainfall expected this
evening increasing the vulnerability of areas to additional
rainfall. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday with a bit more
flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave
in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. No real
changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around
2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds
persists. More cloud cover is expected with the front forecast to be
a little closer to the area Tuesday and the possibility of the
shortwave moving across the area Wednesday, so highs are forecast to
only reach the upper 80s with temperatures nearing 90 degrees in the
NE NC and SE VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into
the area through the weekend. With this change in the pattern,
convective coverage will likely diminish some, but due to the time
of year and weaker ridge, have maintained scattered PoPs for the
time being. With the decrease in cloud cover and storms expected
combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb
into the lower 90s Thursday through Saturday, with Friday possibly
seeing mid 90s across the area. At the same time, there will be an
uptick in low level moisture and dew points will increase into the
mid to upper 70s. Heat indices, especially on Friday, could eclipse
105F+ so Heat Advisories may be required. On Saturday, temperatures
may not be quite as warm, so Heat Advisories may be necessary only
in the southern portion of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 147 PM EDT Monday...

Sea breeze convection has bubbled up near ORF, which has required a
TEMPO for the next hour or so for TSRA until storms move away from
the terminal. Otherwise, all other terminals have prevailing VFR
conditions at this time. There is some uncertainty in afternoon
convection, especially near RIC. Have not seen the same diurnal
storms that we have over the past few days yet, so there is no
mention of degraded flight conditions this afternoon at this time.
We will continue to monitor the evolution of convection through the
afternoon and amend as necessary. For tonight, there is a little
more confidence in storm development, but the exact timing is a
little less certain. PROB30s have been included everywhere except
for ECG for now with the best guess for timing, but this may have to
be nudged to sooner or later pending the speed of the line of storms
expected to move through. Early tomorrow morning, the development of
patchy fog and a low stratus deck is likely, so have dropped CIGS
and VIS down at SBY, RIC, and PHF, though with this rain near
Norfolk this afternoon, ORF may also see some fog development.
Outside of convection, winds will be generally light from the
south to southwest.

Outlook: Additional scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected to recur Tue-Wed, along with the
potential for early morning fog/stratus. Shower/storm coverage
is forecast to be a bit lower late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 259 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday outside of
local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Wednesday night  into
Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

High pressure is building off the SE CONUS coast this afternoon,
with 10-15kt SE winds over the waters and 1-2ft seas/waves. Expect a
slight uptick in winds (to ~15kt) later this aftn/this evening with
a few gusts to 20kt likely on the bay. Winds become S then SW
tonight and diminish to 5-10kt. Similar conditions continue Tuesday
with a mid-aftn to early evening sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE
10-15kt, before becoming SW ~10kt Tuesday night. The wind will
mainly be SSW 10-15kt Wednesday with high pressure continuing to
prevail offshore. Seas remain ~2ft Tuesday and build to 2-3ft
Wednesday, with waves on the bay in the 1-2ft range. The pressure
gradient tightens Wednesday night into Thursday as weak low pressure
tracks well to our north. Confidence in a period of SCA conditions
is increasing during this time, as local wind probabilities for
18kt+ winds have increased to 70-90% for a 6 hour period Wed
night/Thu AM. Winds decrease over the open water during the day on
Thu, but may become a bit gusty (to around 20kt) on the rivers/sound
as mixing over adjacent land areas increases. The wind diminishes by
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front
dropping to the region. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by
Wednesday night and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves on the bay.

Isolated to scattered aftn/evening showers/tstms will continue much
of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind
gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy rain.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through late tonight for
     MDZ021-022.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through late tonight for
     VAZ077-078.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJZ/ERI