651
FXUS61 KAKQ 251931
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very hot
conditions to the region through the week. Low- end chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return from mid week into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect everywhere, excluding
  the Maryland Beaches through this evening.

- A few isolated to scattered storms expected this afternoon
  and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe.

Not a lot of changes since this morning in terms of wx analysis with
sfc high pressure still centered to the SW and the strong UL ridge
over the Eastern CONUS continuing to slowly weaken. Latest sfc obs
show temps in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints generally in the
low 70s (locally mid 70s). Heat indices are generally in the 103-
105F range. The Extreme Heat Warnings will continue through this
evening. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s in western counties and
mid 70s in the east.

Convection is already firing this afternoon with a couple of storms
near the western border. There is no shortage of instability today
with SBCAPE close to 3000 J/kg over most of the area, but as high as
6500 J/kg just to the SW (MLCAPE ~1500-2500 J/kg). This instability
along with low level lapse rates around 8C/km and DCAPE of 1500 J/kg
will support isolated instances of severe weather with damaging
winds from microbursts being the main threat. Mid level lapse rates
across southern portions of the area are somewhat decent for around
here (6.5-7C/km), so there is an outside chance for hail. Lack of
shear will be the limiting factor today: effective shear is <20kt
over pretty much the entire area with the exception of the extreme
SW. Heavy rain is also a threat and with slow storm motions, there
could be some instances of flooding, particularly for urban and poor
drainage areas. Storms look to primarily stay W of I-95 this
afternoon into this evening (25-40% PoPs) with isolated
showers/storms to the E. Convection should drop after midnight
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories in effect for everywhere but the Eastern Shore
  on Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop on Thursday and Friday
afternoons, with more coverage than previous days. A few storms
could be strong to severe.

As the upper ridge continues to gradually weaken Thursday,
temperatures "cool" by a couple of degrees with highs largely in the
mid 90s with locally cooler (upper 80s-low 90s) temps on the Eastern
Shore and right near the coast. Heat indices likely will not be
quite as high tomorrow either. Max Heat Indices look to be on either
side of 105F for most of the area, slightly lower on the Eastern
Shore. Did go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for everywhere but the
Eastern Shore for tomorrow. Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are expected, with even higher coverage compared to
today as a frontal boundary drops closer to the local area (highest
coverage NW). Similar to Wednesday, a few storms again have the
potential to be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts due
to continued high instability over the region. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well, with WPC
placing all but the southeast in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall. Lows Thursday night in the low to mid 70s are expected.

By Friday, expect the boundary that will be lingering to our north
to slip into far northeastern portions of the area in a backdoor
fashion. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across the Eastern Shore and northern portions of the
areas where highs stay in the 80s. Elsewhere, highs will generally
be in the lower 90s with heat indices of 95-103F. Scattered to
potentially more numerous showers/storms across the NW develop
Friday afternoon, with Friday likely having the most activity of the
week. Similar to the past couple of days, strong wind gusts or
locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
scattered storms.

The front that dropped into northeastern portions of the area Friday
lifts back to the north on Saturday. The upper ridge remains with us
through the weekend and into early next week, though not as strong
as what we saw earlier this week. Temperatures will remain above
average throughout the period with highs generally in the low to mid
90s. Max heat index values will range from the upper 90s to just
over 100 this weekend into early next weekend. Heat Advisories may
be needed for a few spots (primarily E) as the forecast is fine
tuned. Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be common
throughout the period, with the best coverage each day across the
NW. PWATs increase to 2.0"+ for much of the area later this weekend
into early next week, which will result in a heavy rain threat.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 18z/25 TAF period. FEW-SCT cloud
cover is evident on satellite this afternoon. Will continue to
see this through the afternoon, though could briefly see high
level BKN later this evening as a result of convection nearby.
Speaking of convection, most terminals are unlikely to be
impacted by showers/storms today since they will primarily stay
in the piedmont. RIC could see a stray storm later this
evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF
at this time. With humid conditions ongoing, there could once
again be some spotty reduced VSBYs early tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Otherwise, prevailing VFR through the end of the week into
the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. Late
aftn/evening showers/tstms are possible Thu-Sun (highest chc inland)
as the upper level ridge gradually weakens.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week.

Favorable marine conditions will continue through the weekend as
high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind direction
will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the land
heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the high
shifts offshore through the end of the week and into the weekend,
the synoptic winds become predominantly southerly areawide. Sea
breezes may still make an appearance near the shore in the afternoon
hours, which would shift the wind to the E or SE. A few wind gusts
to 20-25 kt are possible by the weekend or early next week, but
predictability is low at this range given the effects of potential
convection. Isolated to scattered storms are also possible in the
afternoons and evenings today through the weekend, which could bring
strong wind gusts to the waters, with winds and seas higher within
any convection.

Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the week, increasing to 2-3
ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of 1-2 ft or less through
the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Wed 6/25:

*Record high tied Tue 6/24 at SBY

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-25   100(1952)    100(1952)   99(1914)   100(1952)

 Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Wed 6/25:

*For 6/24 SBY and ECG set record high minimum temperatures and
 RIC and ORF tied their record high minimum temperatures.

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-25   76(1921)     79(1880)   75(1909)    76(1949)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AJB/AC
LONG TERM...AJB/AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...SW/NB
CLIMATE...