648
FXUS61 KAKQ 310113
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
913 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend and
into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry overnight.

- Remaining dry Sunday, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA
  and NE NC.

High pressure is centered over the Great LAkes this evening, and
slowly building to the E-SE, with low pressure off the coast of
GA. A NW flow aloft prevails, with the FA located around the
base of an upper low centered across Quebec and northern New
England. The sky is mainly clear and temperatures have dropped
off into the 60s across most of the region, with a few upper
50s over interior portions of the MD eastern shore and the VA
piedmont. Will continue the dayshift`s trend at favoring the
cooler side of guidance, with a lot of NBM 10th percentile
blended in across interior areas given the drier air and decent
radiational cooling conditions for temps tonight: lows ranging
from ~50F across the NW zones and interior MD eastern shore, to
the mid-upper 60s at the coast in far SE VA and NE NC where
onshore flow ~10 mph will keep readings much warmer. Could
definitely see some of the cooler rural locations (especially N)
drop to the upper 40s.

It remains dry with below normal temperatures once again on
Sunday, though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from
the Great Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina
coast, NE winds should increase across SE VA and NE NC,
especially near the coast, with gusts in the 20-25 mph range by
late morning into the aftn. The upper trough approaches from the
NW, and becomes centered over the FA by Sunday evening,
resulting in more clouds by aftn/evening, but these should
mainly be high clouds. High temperatures look to be primarily in
the mid to upper 70s with dew pts from the upper 40s/lower 50s
NW to the upper 50s in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally nice/cool and dry weather continues
  Monday and Tuesday.

Conditions remain similar Monday with high pressure becoming
centered NE of the region, but with the sfc ridge extending SW
into the local area. It will tend to be breezy along the coast
with a sfc trough in place off the Carolina coast. Highs both
Mon and Tue will mostly be in the upper 70s and dew points will
stay in the low- mid 50s. Lows both Sun and Mon nights will be
in the low- mid 50s inland and in the 60s near the water. Partly
to mostly sunny both days and staying dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels continue through mid
  week.

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns from Wed
  night onward as a front approaches the region from the west
  and potentially interacts with a weak coastal low.

The pattern of dry weather and below normal temps continues
through first half of next week as high pressure remains in
control at the sfc and the UL trough stays more or less in
place. Next chance for rain looks like it would be mid to late
week as a stronger front approaches the area. Still seeing
difference in 12z global models with respect to timing of the
front and the development of an area of low pressure the SE
coast along the old frontal boundary. Will stick with the
blended guidance given the uncertainty, which results in slight
chance to chance PoPs for the late week period. Temperatures and
dew points increase a few degrees Thursday but still only into
the low 80s with dew points rebounding into the 60s. Dry and
comfortable weather returns behind the front late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR prevails through the 00z/31 TAF period. High clouds have
mostly dissipated/pushed offshore, with mainly SKC or just SCT
high clouds overnight. Winds will be light inland, and NE at
5-10 kt near the coast. Expect another round of high level
clouds to move in during the late morning/aftn Sunday. Winds
Sunday will avg around 10 kt inland, but increase to 10-15kt
with gusts to 20kt at ORF/ECG given a tighter pressure gradient
developing.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through
midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 910 PM EDT Saturday...

- A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected
  beginning late this weekend and continuing into early next
  week. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of
  the coastal waters Sunday into Monday.

A cold front moved across the coastal waters earlier today,
but winds have calmed down significantly this evening. Winds are
generally out of the NE at 5-10 kt. Seas are 2-3 ft in the
ocean, with waves of 1-2 ft being measured across the bay.

High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area)
through early next week. An area of low pressure will start to
develop off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so and
slowly lift northeastwards. The gradient between the high to our
north and low to our south will tighten, leading to increased
onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, starting
Sunday and continuing through early next week. Wind speeds will
average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a
period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot) winds is likely
Sunday afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal waters S of
Parramore Island. Based on guidance trending noticeably higher
with the winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday, have raised
Small Craft Advisories for the coastal waters S of Parramore
Island, the Currituck Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake
Bay. These start tomorrow afternoon in the southern coastal
waters, sound, and bay and tomorrow night in the northern
waters. These higher winds will also increase the seas to 4-6
ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of the NC/VA border. Winds
will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub- SCA
winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay
through Sunday morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent
onshore flow will result in building seas next week, with 4 to 6
feet seas forecast by later Sunday and Monday (and continuing
through Tuesday before slowly subsiding).

Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across
the southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the
northern beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the
moderate risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and
Tuesday. A high risk is now expected at the southern beaches
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the
forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best
estimation is:

- RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992.
- SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008.
- ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC/LKB
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/RHR
AVIATION...AC/LKB
MARINE...SW/NB
CLIMATE...