430
FXUS61 KAKQ 102015
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
 A cold front crosses into the area tonight, with cooler
temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty still remains
regarding the potential for additional light wintry
precipitation, associated with multiple clipper systems late
this week and again at the end of the weekend. A very cold start
to next week will give way to relatively milder temperatures
for the middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds increase ahead of the cold front this afternoon/evening.

- Cooler and dry weather conditions for tomorrow.

Afternoon weather analysis shows strong troughing persisting over
the area with SW flow aloft. At the surface, a sub 990mb low
tracking across the Great Lakes and western NY. The cold front
associated with this low is currently draped across Ohio. The
pressure gradient ahead of the cold front has tightened through the
day and winds have increased out of the SW with 25 to 30mph gusts.
With the strong SW flow it has allowed for temperatures to warm up
across the south where there has been some breaks within the clouds.
While across the piedmont temperatures have struggled to warm due to
the increased cloud cover and remaining snow. Nonetheless,
temperatures are ranging between the low to mid 40s across the
piedmont and upper 40s to low 50s across the SE. Later this
afternoon and evening as the front approaches cloud cover will
increase. There is also a slight chance of showers across the far
north given the strong forcing. However, confidence is low at the
time given decent dry air at the surface. As the cold front pushes
through the area this evening winds will shift out of the WNW but
will lower. Late tonight/early Thursday morning clouds will
decrease allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low
30s. By Thursday the cold front will have finally pushed through the
area and high pressure from the west will be moving into place over
the area. Before the high moves into place breezy conditions will
persist through the early part of the day with gusts between 20 to
25 mph across the area with some possible 30 mph gusts across the MD
Eastern Shore where the pressure gradient is stronger. Skies will
remain mostly clear to clear as the dry weather persist from the
high pressure. Temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching
into the low to middle 40s. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A weak clipper system is possible Friday.

- Dry and Slightly Warmer Saturday.

There continues to remain some uncertainty with the possible clipper
system on Friday. Models continue to show a weak shortwave and low
pressure system moving out of the northern Plains into our area
producing light snow across the far west. Models continue to show
disagreement with this incoming system. Some of the deterministic
short range models and the GEFS show the snow showers across the far
NW. While the ECMWF continues to hint on a southerly trend. With
this uncertainty decided to nudge pops up slightly across the south
but still remains between 20 to 35%. Now in terms in how much snow
could fall still remains uncertain. This is again due to the
disagreement from the models and depends on where a weak FGEN band
sets up. The Ecmwf probs for 1" of snow continue to lower and are now
between 20 to 30% while the GEFS has increased and are between 40 to
50%. At this time, have decided to keep snow totals confined and
less than .5" inch across the far NW. Trends in the model data will
continue to be monitored.

After the clipper system Friday strong NW flow aloft will persist
over the area with a high pressure moving in place at the surface.
Dry weather conditions will remain in place with slightly warmer
temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 40s across the north and low
50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

- Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday,
ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday.,  Lows in
the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night and mid to upper  30s are
forecast for Monday. Some light precipitation is  possible with the
Arctic frontal passage.

- Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle  of
next week.

Recent 12z models are continuing to bring a strong cold front across
the area as a arctic high pressure moves out of Canada late Sunday.
Models have continued to increase on precipitation chances with the
cold front that could lead some wintry precipitation especially
across the NE portion of the CWA. However, there still remains little
uncertainty due to timing. With the models increasing with
precipitations pops have also increased and are between 25 to 40%.
By Sunday night a strong high pressure will move into place ushering
in Arctic temperatures. Lows Monday AM are expected to plummet into
middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly highs
Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus that cold
high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed, portending a gradual
warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this afternoon.
Mainly mid to high clouds continue to move over the terminals
ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds have became quite
breezy ahead of the front, with wind speeds around 15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt (locally 30 kt along the coast). Additionally, a
strengthening low-level jet will result in southwesterly LLWS
this afternoon and evening across all terminals. There is also
a very low chance of an isolated shower just north of KRIC and
around the KSBY terminal as the front moves through late this
afternoon into the evening, but PoPs are <20%. VFR conditions
will prevail throughout tonight with gusty winds shifting out
of the WNW behind the front tonight.


Outlook: Gusty NW winds and VFR conditions are expected post-
frontal Thursday. An approaching disturbance could trigger some
light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for
snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions
possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase today ahead of a cold front. Gale Warnings are
  in effect for coastal waters N of Cape Charles, SCAs are in
  effect elsewhere

- Another strong cold front potentially crosses the coast later
  Sunday.

High pressure is sliding offshore early this morning in advance of a
cold front that is set to cross through the region late this
evening. SW winds are starting to pick up as the pressure gradient
tightens between the front and exiting high pressure. Latest obs
show winds across the mid and upper bay, along with northern coastal
waters, already up to 20-25kt. Winds did start coming up a couple of
hours early, so did start a few of the SCAs early. Elsewhere, winds
are still 10-15kt. Buoy obs indicates that seas have temporarily
dropped to around 4ft. SCAs are in effect for all of the bay and
coastal water zones as of this writing with the rivers joining at
7am and the Currituck Sound this afternoon.

SW winds of 15-20kt continue through mid-morning, then increasing
further to 20-25kt for most zones and 25-30kt over northern coastal
waters by the early afternoon as the front reaches the Appalachian
region. Model guidance indicates that a 50kt+ LLJ moves in overhead
at about this time as well. Though the full extent of this shouldn`t
mix down to the surface, still expecting rather gusty conditions
this afternoon. The rivers/sound will gust to ~25kt, the bay and
southern coastal waters 30-35kt, and the northern coastal waters up
to 40kt. Gale Warnings go into effect for waters N of Parramore
Island mid morning, expanding down to Cape Charles in the early
afternoon. Seas increase back to 4-5ft early this morning with waves
in the bay at 2-3ft. By mid-afternoon, seas are forecast to increase
to 6-7ft in the northern zones, 3-5ft in southern waters. Waves will
be 3-4ft.

Winds diminish slightly late this evening as they turn to the W late
this evening, then to the NW late tonight. Expecting NW winds of 20-
25kt early tomorrow morning (10-15kt in the rivers). Then winds
gradually diminish through the day Thurs. Expecting generally sub-
SCA conditions Friday and through most of the weekend. A strong cold
front looks to cross the waters late in the weekend, bringing the
potential for strong NW winds into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...AC