741
FXUS61 KAKQ 171941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lifts through the region today as it washes
out. An upper level ridge expands northward Wednesday, leading
to hot weather with lower rain chances Wednesday, followed by
hot conditions Thursday, with scattered showers and storms as
the next cold front approaches. Mainly dry for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few strong storms possible over the piedmont late this
  afternoon into early evening.

Afternoon sfc analysis and latest satellite imagery indicate a warm
front lifting through the area, located approx. across the Northern
Neck. South of the boundary, cloud cover has scattered out and temps
are in the mid 80s. Thick cloud cover remains over the peninsulas
and the Eastern Shore where temps are in the upper 70s. Aloft, SW
flow persists. Conditions are dry for now, but this may change over
the next couple of hours. This morning`s CAMs were generally in
agreement that a few isolated/widely scattered showers/storms may
initiate near the warm front or off of a sea breeze boundary mid to
late afternoon. During the late afternoon and into this evening,
convection is expected to move into western portions of the area and
progress across the FA as a small shortwave passes through the flow
aloft. There is the potential for isolated severe weather with these
storms. There is more than sufficient CAPE at 1500-2500 J/kg, but
wind shear is meager at 20-30kt at best. Primary threat would be
damaging wind gusts for any stronger storms that develop, but cannot
rule out a tornado, particularly near the warm front where sfc winds
are backed. SPC has most of the are in a Marginal severe risk with
the exception of NC counties where storm coverage overall should be
less. Given PWATs are still sitting at or above 2" for much of the
area, heavy rain will of course be a threat with storms as well. As
such, flash flooding will be possible for urban/poor drainage areas
and/or where storms train over a particular spot.

The majority of the area should dry out by early tonight, but
showers/storms may persist through late tonight over NE portions of
the area. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s for most of the area
and mid 70s in the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Wed and Thursday, with heat headlines possible
  in the SE both days.

- Severe Tstms possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
  night. A Slight Risk is in place for much of the region for
  Thursday.

SW flow aloft is maintained Wed, though a weakening trough will
approach from the west. The trough/weak shortwave energy should
be enough to trigger scattered afternoon thunderstorms. These should
generally be limited to areas north of a Farmville to Ocean
City line, though cannot rule out isolated storms elsewhere.
Will note that SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk over the
Eastern Shore for tomorrow with the threat being damaging wind
gusts. Storms should wrap up with the loss of day-time heating.
There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches the
region. With high heat and humidity in place, ample instability
is expected along and ahead of a cold front. In addition, model
mid-level lapse rates are currently showing values ~6-6.5 C/Km
by 00z, along with bulk shear values of 30-40kt. SPC has
outlooked most of the area from Ahoskie to Norfolk NNW in a day
3 Slight Risk. Expectation at this time is a more organized
linear, outflow-driven storm mode with damaging winds and large
hail as the primary threats. Best guess timing is 4pm through
about midnight through the area, but timing is still subject to
some adjustment later in time given the progress of the frontal
passage.

The other weather item of note for the short term will be the
building heat. As the previously referenced upper-level ridge
lifts north across the east coast, summer-like heat will come
with it. Highs Wednesday rise into the low- mid 90s for most of
the area. Heat indices will be 100-105 for areas E of I-95.
There is the potential for adding far SE counties to a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow, but with peak heat indices right around
105F and only for a couple of hours, have held off for now.
Given the pattern, and with the recent wet spell, have kept
high temperatures both Wed and Thu on the "cooler" edge of
guidance, but with dew pts at or slightly higher than MOS
numbers (but a bit lower than NBM). Thurs Heat indices will be
similar to Wed with advisories once again possible in the far
SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- After a brief modest cool down on Friday, temperatures ramp
  back up over the weekend into early next week. Summer heat and
  moderate humidity levels expected Sunday through the middle of
  next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for (at
  least) portions of the area.

After the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures will
briefly "reprieve" from the excessive heat on Friday. The shortwave
will start to move offshore, but NW flow aloft will linger through
the day on Friday. As the shortwave clears the coast and moves
further offshore during the day, cloudy cover will start to clear
from NW to SE. This clearing will still allow temperatures to reach
the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Dew points will drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which will still lead to toasty heat indices
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but not expecting any heat headlines
for Friday at this time. Friday night into Saturday, an expansive
500 mb ridge will gradually move from the southern Plains towards
the Mid-Atlantic region. Rapid height rises are expected through
Sunday as this almost 600 dm high plants itself over the East Coast
through mid-next week. While we have been looking forward to a few
rain-free days, it will come with a cost. Temperatures will soar
into the mid-upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday, with inland areas
nearing 100 degrees. Dew points will be in the low to mid 70s, so
heat indices will reach 100 degrees each afternoon and could be
flirting with Excessive Heat Warning Criteria next Tuesday if the
forecast holds.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday...

A warm front is gradually lifting through the area this
afternoon, leading to slowly improving flight conditions across
the region. Still seeing a lot of MVFR at the terminals and
surrounding observation sites as of latest obs. Scattering cloud
cover will bring most terminals up to VFR this afternoon, but
MVFR will mostly likely hang on at SBY with the thicker clouds.
Later this afternoon, scattered convection may form along the
coast on the sea breeze. Not expecting much coverage from these,
so have opted for prob30s for the SE terminals. A disturbance
aloft will trigger scattered showers/storms this evening from
the west. Impact to terminals would be closer to or after 00z,
so have left these out of the TAFs for now due to uncertainty in
coverage that far east (aside from VCSH). Looking ahead to
tomorrow, expecting VFR through at least the morning. Another
round of isolated to scattered storms will be possible in the
afternoon (highest chance at SBY/RIC). Also expecting breezy SW
winds during the day tomorrow with gusts approaching 20kt.

Outlook: Additional late day and evening convection is possible
on Wednesday afternoon, with more widespread coverage expected
Thursday afternoon/evening, as a cold front crosses the region.
Very warm, dry, with VFR conditions for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 341 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Benign marine conditions continue throughout Wednesday
  afternoon.

- SW winds increase by Wednesday night potentially bringing SCA
  conditions across the Bay.

A warm front is draped across NW VA through SE VA, with surface
winds generally southwest to west south of the front and east to
southeast north of the front though some areas are seeing sea
breezes which may also be influencing the direction. The high in the
western North Atlantic has been suppressed south of Bermuda, and an
area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes. Due to the weak
gradient across the region, wind speeds range from 5-10 knots, with
seas 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves of around 1 ft in the
Bay. A marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for waters north of
Parramore Island through 4 pm, but we are continuing to monitor the
need for an extension through this evening.

Benign marine conditions are expected tonight through tomorrow
morning, though an increase in winds is forecast overnight to around
10-15 kts in the Bay and coastal waters as an area of low pressure
develops to the west and the gradient tightens between this feature
and the aforementioned high in the western North Atlantic. Winds
will also shift to the southwest. Through the day tomorrow, winds
will continue to increase as a front associated with the developing
low traverses eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, further tightening
the gradient. Marginal SCA conditions in the Bay are possible
tomorrow night through Thursday night. A few global models are
suggesting stronger winds than are currently forecast especially
across the coastal waters, so we will adjust wind speeds as
necessary over the next few forecast cycles pending forecast
trends. Waves will reach 2-3 ft in the Bay and seas will build
to 3-4 ft in the coastal waters. After the front moves through
Thursday night, high pressure will build in across the area, and
winds will drop in response. Sub-SCA conditions will continue
through at least mid- next week with winds generally remaining
at 10 kts or less and seas of around 2 ft in the coastal waters
and waves of ~1 ft in the Bay.

As flow becomes offshore tonight, the rip current risk will decrease
to low at all beaches tomorrow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With onshore flow being lighter today then becoming southwest
overnight, the risk for minor coastal flooding in the upper Bay
and tidal portions of the Rappahannock/Potomac Rivers has
diminished. The Coastal Flood Statement has been cancelled.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...HET/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NB