429
FXUS61 KAKQ 271916
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
216 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler
weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for
light rain arrives Sunday with better rain chances on Tuesday. Rain
may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the
Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Cooler today with highs in the upper 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE.

- Cold tonight with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and lower
  30s along the coast.

Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure
in Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front well off the
Southeast coast. WNW winds were 5-10 mph with occasional gusts
around 20 mph mainly across the Eastern Shore. Temperatures as of 1
PM were in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies continue through this afternoon due to a combination of altocu
and cirrus. Clouds move offshore this evening with clear skies
tonight. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to
our west as a secondary push of CAA arrives, dropping 850 mb
temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling
conditions won`t quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will
still fall into the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the
coast. Will note that a few locations across the NW Piedmont may
drop into the low-mid 20s if winds become calm briefly before
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and breezy on Friday with wind chills only warming into
  the 30s during the afternoon.

- Very cold Friday night with upper teens to lower 20s inland
  and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.

A strong area of high pressure builds into the area Friday into
Friday night, eventually becoming centered over the local area
Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out.
Friday will be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and breezy WNW
winds gusting up to 25-35 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore). It
will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never
reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. In fact,
wind chills Fri morning may be as low as the upper teens in spots.
With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in
the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with
lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become calm and skies remain
clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F.
With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the
day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s
and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along
the coast. Will note that there is a nonzero chance of a few light
snow showers or sleet pellets across the Piedmont late Sat night
into Sun morning if enough moisture from an area of low pressure
tracking into the Great Lakes and Midwest can make it over the
mountains in time. Forecast soundings show a dry layer in the lower
levels and saturation in the mid and upper levels. For now, have
kept NBM PoPs which hold off saturation until temps warm above
freezing on Sun and therefore only show rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through mid week inland with occasional days
  of mild weather across SE VA and NE NC.

- Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night with a more widespread
  wetting rain likely from late Monday night into Tuesday
  night.

- Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of
  the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Clouds increase Saturday night into Sun as high pressure moves
offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light
rain is possible Sun into Sun night as that system drags a cold
front through the area. However, overall rainfall totals look to be
light (<0.2"). Sun is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid-
upper 40s across the NW half.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area from late Mon night through Tue night (70-80% PoPs). However,
the exact track of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain.
The general model consensus is for a progressive high pressure
to the north which moves from the Great Lakes into northern New
England or Canada Mon night into Tue. Ensemble guidance is a bit
farther south with the high pressure than deterministic models,
however, even ensemble guidance still shows the high moving
into Maine by Tue morning and continuing to move NE through Tue
afternoon. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance shows clustering of a
surface low very close to (or along) the coast Tue afternoon
into Tue evening. Additionally, there are some signs that this
could be a Miller B type of setup with a weak initial low moving
inland across the Southeast and Southern Appalachian Mountains
before the energy transfers to the dominant low forming along
the Southeast coast. Given the high pressure remaining far north
(with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller
B nature of the low, and the primary low forming very close to
(if not on) the coast, confidence in any snow is dwindling.
Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in
predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough)
or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold
air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the
forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the
Piedmont late Mon night into Tue morning before temps warm above
freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. Will note that the
12z GFS and CMC both showed the potential for >0.5" of freezing
rain across the Piedmont. However, the NBM prob for >0.1" of
freezing rain was <15% with ~25% probs for >0.01". Meanwhile,
the GEFS probs for >0.1" of freezing rain was ~30% with a 20-25%
chance for >0.25". As such, will continue to closely monitor
the setup.

Any precip likely ends before Wed morning. Rainfall totals could be
fairly substantial with a 30-50% chance for >1" of rain on the EPS
and GEFS (best chance across SE VA/NE NC). Otherwise, highs are
expected to range from the mid-upper 40s Mon (around 50F across far
SE VA/NE NC), around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wed
(lower 50s across far S VA/NE NC), and upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S
Thu. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to around 40F SE Sun night
(dropping below freezing after the precip ends) through Tue night.
However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tue
system and therefore temps may be warmer Mon and Tue nights.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z taf
period. A mixture of altocu and cirrus have overspread the area
this afternoon and will linger across the local area through
this afternoon. SCT-BKN sky cover is expected for most
terminals with mostly clear skies at ECG. Clouds move offshore
this evening with clear skies returning tonight. Mixing has been
less efficient than originally expected due to the cloud cover.
However, occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt will remain possible
this afternoon with the best chance for 20 kt gusts at SBY.
Otherwise, WNW winds of 5-10 kt (most places closer to 10 kt)
continue through tonight. Winds increase Fri to ~15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt for most locations and 15-20 kt with gusts up
to 30 kt across the Eastern Shore (including SBY).

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through at least Saturday
night. High pressure builds over the area Friday night into
Saturday with lighter winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this morning as
  winds remain elevated behind a cold front.

- Winds decrease below SCA criteria later this morning and afternoon,
  but a secondary surge brings stronger winds, potentially with
  a few gale force gusts, tonight into Friday morning and again
  Friday night.

NW winds have increased to 15-25 kt behind a cold front this
morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay
and coastal waters N of the NC/VA border through 7 AM. The SCA for
the rivers drops off a bit earlier...at 4 AM...as winds should
decrease faster there. Benign marine wx makes a brief return later
this morning and afternoon before another increase in winds to 15-25
kt this evening through most of Friday and Friday night. Cold air
advection will be maximized early Friday morning as a potent upper-
level disturbance moves through, which should allow for occasional
30-35 kt wind gusts across the waters. Probabilities for frequent
Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (less than 10%);
therefore, no Gale Warnings are anticipated at this time. However,
additional SCAs will be needed once the current headlines drop off
this morning. Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime
hours Friday, with another surge possible Friday night given
pressure rises of ~5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in
from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through
Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10-
20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft
range, with some potential for 4 ft waves late tonight and again
Friday night.

High pressure moves overhead Saturday with a light northerly wind
expected. Another cold front will then approach from the W Sunday as
the high shifts offshore, bringing a wind shift to the S.
While gusts upward of 20 kt are possible, SCAs appear unlikely. A
brief period of SCAs are then possible late Sunday night into Monday
morning in the post-frontal, northerly wind regime. Uncertainty then
increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely
low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs is possible
Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind
direction and speed is of low confidence at this point.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW