314
FXUS61 KAKQ 201445
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
945 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and cooler conditions prevail today. A low pressure
system will bring chances for rain Friday and Saturday. High
pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next week
leading to dry conditions. Another low pressure system may
impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry but cool and mostly cloudy today.

Elongated high pressure stretches from coastal New England down
into the NC/VA coastal plain this morning. Weak a weak CAD-like
setup in place, widespread lower cloud cover persists across
most of the local area, except for those lucky individuals on
the srn VA Eastern Shore. While the low cloud deck will attempt
to scour some through the day, expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions to linger across the area as the high remains in
place to our N and weak onshore flow continues. Temperatures
will struggle to increase today due limited sunshine and cooler
airmass in place and have lowered highs by a couple degrees with
this update, yielding 50s for most of the area. Wouldn`t be
surprised if areas across the N/NW struggle to get out of the
upper 40s. Regardless, dry conditions are expected today with no
rain chances.

High pressure will start to move offshore
tonight, as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 40s (upper 40s
along the coast) tonight under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances as a warm front lifts
  through the area.

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, drying out
  Saturday night.

A warm front will lift through the area Friday, bringing our first
chance of rain. The highest chance for rain during the day will
likely be seen in the piedmont and across the northern counties (40-
50%). There will be a temperature gradient across the forecast area,
with the southern half of the area expected to see highs reach the
lower to mid 60s, while the northern half will see highs in the
upper 50s to near 60F. Friday night and into Saturday, a cold front
will approach the area, bringing another round of higher rain
chances to the area. The highest rain chances remain concentrated
across VA and the Eastern Shore and start to lessen across far
southern VA and NE NC. Not expecting much QPF with this system, with
storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.35" per the latest run
of the NBM. Probabilities for > 0.5" of QPF are only around 15 to
20% (highest across northern portions of the area). Rain chances
will start to diminish from NW to SE on Saturday afternoon as the
front makes its way offshore. Despite the rain and lingering cloud
cover, temperatures will still likely reach the 60s to even lower
70s across the south. A drier, cooler airmass will filter in behind
the front on Saturday night. Chilly overnight temperatures are
expected Saturday night, with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid
30s across the northern counties/MD Eastern Shore and the mid 30s to
low 40s across the remaining portions of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
  middle of next week.

High pressure will build across the region on Sunday in the wake of
the front, with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions returning.
Temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 60s Monday
and Tuesday ahead of another possible disturbance that will
potentially approach the region around mid- week. There are
still some inconsistencies between global models in the timing
of this next system, but all guidance is suggesting that the
arrival of this disturbance will be the next time the local area
will possibly see another round of measurable rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 647 AM EST Thursday...

IFR CIGs have started to lift at SBY and RIC, with a mixed bag of
MVFR to IFR CIGS at ECG, PHF, and ORF. Patchy fog developed at SBY
earlier this morning and that too has since started to scatter out.
Conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours as
ceilings start to lift at the southern terminals, though they could
linger longer than forecast. While cloud cover will remain in place
across the forecast area through tomorrow morning, VFR conditions
will prevail starting later this morning. Surface winds will remain
light and generally variable through the TAF period, with NE winds
expected at the coastal terminals through the evening.

Outlook: The next chance for light rain arrives Friday into
Saturday with the next system, which could lead to additional
flight restrictions. At this time, Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 555 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect early this morning for NC coastal
  waters, otherwise all headlines have ended.

- Benign later today through friday, SCA conditions possible in
  the wake of another cold front Saturday into Saturday night.

High pressure is starting to settle into the region, allowing
NNE winds to diminish, now mainly 10-15 kt or less. Seas are
3-4 ft, but are still hovering ~5 ft at buoy 44056, so SCAs
have been extended through 10 AM for the NC coastal waters.

Otherwise, winds will continue to drop off later this morning,
and will become light E-NE this afternoon, and then turn to the
SE but remain light through Friday. Waves will average 1-2 ft
with seas 2-3 ft (3-4 ft seas linger across the southern coastal
waters into this afternoon). High pressure translates offshore
on Friday ahead of the next front. The pressure gradient
tightens, with SW winds increasing Fri night (but winds should
remain below SCA thresholds). On Saturday, there are some timing
differences with the cold front dropping south through the
area, and this will lead to uncertainty regarding when the next
cool surge occurs, potentially as early as Saturday morning or
as late as Saturday evening. It does look like there is a good
chance at seeing a period of SCA conditions when the surge
occurs as winds become northerly at 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25
kt, with waves building to 3-4 ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the
Bay and seas building to 4-5 ft (at least across the southern
coastal zones). After that, high pressure returns, bringing
another period with relatively benign conditions Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...LKB/RHR