946
FXUS61 KAKQ 042014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool weather continues into next week. Light snow is expected
tonight into Friday across most of the area. Precipitation chances
over to a wintry mix or all rain by Friday afternoon before ending.
Primarily dry conditions are expected from this weekend through the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Snowfall totals have increased and therefore have expanded the Winter
  Weather Advisory.

- The snow arrival time has trended earlier.

- Light freezing drizzle remains possible mainly Friday
  afternoon into Friday night.

Afternoon surface analysis shows a strong (~1032mb) area of high
pressure over the Midwest with a weak area of low pressure along a
stationary front in the northern Gulf. Temps as of 2 PM ranged from
the upper 40s to around 50F across the region under partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Cloud cover increases this evening ahead of the next
system. Aloft, a shortwave impacts the area from this evening
through early Friday afternoon with another moving south of the area
Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to
develop just offshore of the Southeast coast late tonight before
moving NE Fri. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure slides to the
north of the local area tonight before sliding off the Mid Atlantic
coastline Fri afternoon. Recent model trends have continued to favor
an earlier arrival time of the moisture tonight. As such, have PoPs
increasing to 30-40% across the Piedmont by 1 AM with snow expected
across most areas by 3-4 AM. Given the quicker timing of precip,
snow is the favored precipitation type across most of the area with
freezing rain chances continuing to dwindle. Expect snow for the
morning commute across most of the area (90-100% PoPs) with a wintry
mix of rain and snow or plain rain across far SE VA/NE NC where
surface temps are a bit warmer. Additionally, overnight lows in the
mid 20s across the NW Piedmont to lower 30s across SE VA and
interior NE NC (mid to upper 30s along the coast of far SE VA/NE NC)
are expected. This means that snow should have no issue accumulating
tonight into Fri morning. As such, use caution if driving and plan
for winter weather impacts.

Given the faster timing of the snow, snow is now expected to taper
off by late Fri morning into early Fri afternoon with the potential
for a light wintry mix inland and rain across SE VA/NE NC. Temps
remain cool on Fri with highs only around freezing across the
Piedmont and mid-upper 40s across far SE VA/NE NC. Therefore, little
melting is expected inland. Given the increased moisture at a more
favorable time of day for snowfall accumulation, overall snowfall
totals have increased to 2-3" across most inland areas, 1-2"
across SE VA, Northampton (NC), and the Eastern Shore (outside
of the MD beaches). As such, have expanded the Winter Weather
Advisories to include all of the Eastern Shore (outside of the
MD beaches) as well as most of E VA to Hampton and Isle of Wight
County. While there is some potential for light accumulations
of mainly <1" across Suffolk in VA and Hertford and Gates
Counties in NC, confidence for 1-2" was too low to add these
areas to the advisory at this time. Will note that there is
potential for a swath of 3-4"+ of snow across Prince Edward
County to the Northern Neck (including the Richmond Metro).
However, while the global models have increases snowfall totals,
hi- res guidance was lower. This can be seen in the prob for 4"
of snow which was 30-55% for the NBM and <10% for the HREF.
Therefore, confidence was too low to forecast Winter Storm
Warning criteria snow at this time. That being said, will have
to monitor trends (in both radar and forecast models) to see
whether or not this higher end potential can be realized. If
confidence increases in reaching 4"+ of snowfall, a short-fused
Winter Storm Warning may be warranted.

Outside of snowfall, forecast soundings continue to show the
potential for mainly light drizzle (plain or freezing drizzle if
surface temps are below freezing) from Fri afternoon into Fri night.
As such, a light glaze of ice remains possible. However, any
freezing rain looks to be very light. Given the saturated soundings
and widespread cloud cover Fri night, NBM temps are likely too cold.
Still expect below freezing temps, however, the HRRR and NAM showed
lows closer to 30F instead of the low-mid 20s across the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and primarily dry weather continues through the weekend.

Low pressure moves offshore Saturday with high pressure building in.
As such, primarily dry weather is expected this weekend apart from a
low chance for a few light showers across NE NC Sat. Additionally,
cool weather continues with highs in the mid 40s for most Sat and
mid 40s N to low-mid 50s S Sun. Lows Sat night and Sun night remain
in the mid-upper 20s inland and mid-upper 30s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Thursday...

- Below average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Moderating temperatures are possible by mid to late week.

The general model consensus is for primarily dry conditions to
continue through the middle of next week. The ensembles show a
shortwave trough moving across the area on Monday underneath a
longwave trough across the East Coast. Models and ensembles continue
to show a more suppressed system with a surface low likely remaining
offshore. As such, confidence in any precip Mon has decreased with
only 15-25% PoPs early Mon. Otherwise, some light precip is possible
Wed night into Thu (20-30% PoPs), however, rain is the most likely
precip type at this time. Highs remain cool early in the week with
temps in the upper 30s N to mid 40s SE Mon and upper 30s to around
40F NW to upper 40s SE Tue. However temps moderate by mid week with
highs in the upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions continue at all terminals with NW winds becoming
NE at 5-12 kt (highest at ORF where gusts to 20 kt are possible
tonight). Then, rapidly deteriorating conditions are expected
with light to occasionally moderate snow moving into RIC by
~07z and SBY/PHF by ~10z. VSBYs will vary between 0.5-2 SM in
the snow...with the best chc for moderate snow/0.5 SM VSBYs at
RIC. ORF/ECG should see precip begin by 09-11z (mainly rain but
snow may mix in at ORF). Snow tapers to drizzle from west to
east between 13-17z (with freezing drizzle possible at RIC as
temps struggle to rise above 32F throughout the day). Precip
may change to rain at PHF before tapering to drizzle. CIGs drop
to MVFR/IFR by 08-10z with IFR CIGs expected at all terminals
during the day on Friday. Drizzle may continue through Fri
evening before drier conditions return Fri night (though low
CIGs could persist through Fri night).


Outlook: Mainly dry Sat-Sun, though some low chances for
precipitation and the potential for periodic flight restrictions
may linger in the SE.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:


- A dry cold front passes through the this afternoon elevating winds
out of the north overnight.

- Calmer conditions expected for the weekend. Another round of SCAs
is expected early next week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1030mb high pressure over the
southern Great Lakes and a broad low pressure hugging the Gulf
Coast. The dry cold front is now passing through the area however
winds are still around 10 kt. This is due to the dry air lagging
behind. Seas this afternoon are continuing to linger around 2 to 3ft
ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay. In the next couple
of hours once the dry air enters the area winds will quickly
increase across all waters and will be between 15 to 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25 kt. Seas will also increase to 2 to 3 ft across
the bay and 3 to 5 ft across the ocean. Winds increase high enough
to issue SCA for the bay, lower James, Sound, and the ocean waters.
The winds will subside around 7z across the bay and lower James and
the threat for SCA conditions will diminish. Across the Sound the
winds will not subside until ~12z. For the oceans, winds will
primarily be below SCA criteria with maybe a brief gust of 25 kt
across the north, seas will increase to 5ft across the north and
perhaps 6ft across the southern two ocean zones as the high moves
across the north shifting winds out of the NE. SCA for the northern
two ocean zones will go into effect at 21z and last through 12z
tomorrow. While the southern 3 zones will go into effect later tonight
and last through tomorrow afternoon as seas will remain elevated. In
addition to the SCA snow/rain showers are expected early tomorrow
morning. These showers will reduce visibility across the waters.

Through the weekend benign marine conditions are expected as high
pressure settles overhead. Winds will remain primarily out of the
north with winds around 10 to 15 kt and seas between 1 to 2 ft
across the bay and 3 to 4 across the ocean. By next week marine
conditions ill become elevated as a much colder but dry cold front
will pass through the area. Confidence in SCA conditions is high
Monday into Tuesday. Will note there is the potential for some Gale
force winds as the airmass that will be moving in is quite strong
and local wind probs have jumped to 40 to 50% across the ocean zones
and 20 to 40% across the bay for wind gusts >= 34kt.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     MDZ021>024.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for
     NCZ012.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ077-078-084>086-099-100.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for
     VAZ092-093-523>525.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-
     509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET