372
FXUS61 KAKQ 252018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
318 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system brings a chance for some light showers this
afternoon and evening, with more widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms possible tonight. Lingering showers are possible
on Wednesday as well, with cooler and drier conditions returning
Wednesday night behind a cold front. Much cooler and drier
conditions will persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers develop late this afternoon and this evening across
  western portions of the area, mainly NNW of a Richmond to
  Salisbury line. Showers are likely across most of the area
  after midnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder
  possible.

- Rainfall amounts will be light, averaging a tenth to a quarter
  of an inch through tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows high pressure shifting offshore
this afternoon. To the west, a dampening mid-level trough
continues to slide east from the eastern TN Valley toward the
local area. The attendant surface low was analyzed over the
lower OH valley, with a warm front extending SE across the
Carolinas. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching from
the west ahead of a strong trough and low pressure system
moving through the mid-MS valley into the Great Lakes Region.
Each of these systems will have an impact on our sensible wx
over the next few days.

The warm front associated with the initial system lifts across
the region late today into this evening. A narrow swath of
weakening overrunning moisture attendant to the warm front will
cross the piedmont and along/north of the RIC metro toward the
MD Eastern Shore late this afternoon into this evening,
resulting in a brief round of showers. Despite the increasing
cloud cover, temperatures have climbed well into the 60s for
most (50s over the far west), with highs in the upper 60s-70F
readings expected across SE VA/NE NC. The only exception will be
across the far west, where increasing clouds and midday/aftn
light rain likely hold the piedmont (US-15 corridor) in the
55-60F range.

The warm front lifts well to our north tonight, with temperatures
hanging largely in the 60s on a breezy S wind. A more
widespread, but quick-moving slug of overrunning moisture ahead
of the trailing cold front crosses the area. Timing for this
wave is mainly from 11 PM-6 AM. Will keep the mention of thunder
in the forecast through the night as model soundings continue
to show up to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE moving in. With no
surface- based instability, not expecting much more than a few
rumbles of thunder at the very most. Areal avg rainfall amounts
will be 0.1-0.25" through tonight (which will actually be the
bulk of the rain from this system).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms) will
  be possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, with
  dry conditions returning Wednesday night.

- Much cooler and breezy from Wednesday night through Thanksgiving.

The stronger second system currently over the mid-MS valley is
progged to track NE into the upper Great Lakes, Ontario/Quebec
Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will drag a fairly
strong cold front through the local area Wed evening-early Thu
morning. Another round of isolated to scattered showers,
perhaps with an additional rumble of thunder or two, are
possible along and ahead of the front on Wednesday, though model
trends continue to favor a drier frontal passage, as the best
deep- layered moisture/upper forcing remains confined to our
N/NE. Mild in the quasi-warm sector on Wed, with highs in the
lower 70s in most areas, though some mid 70s are certainly
possible with the breezy return flow. This would threaten a few
daily records, which have been included below in the climate
section for reference. Lows fall sharply behind the front into
the mid 30s-40F Wed night, as CAA arrives from the WNW.

Much cooler wx is expected on Thanksgiving Day, as deep upper
troughing establishes itself over the eastern CONUS and ~1036 mb
high pressure builds over the Plains. Highs will only be in the
upper 40s-lower 50s on gusty W-NW winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold
Thursday night with lows falling into the mid 20s-lower 30s.
With the chilly high still to our W/NW, there will be a bit of
a breeze so radiational cooling conditions won`t be quite ideal
(but 850 mb temps still drop to -10C by Fri AM thus the lows in
the 20s for a decent portion of the FA).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Drier and much cooler weather continues on Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures moderate early next week with increasing rain chances
  by Monday and Tuesday.

The deep trough remains over the eastern CONUS Fri AM before the
flow aloft flattens out by Saturday. Temps on Friday likely max out
only in the mid to upper 40s on breezy W-NW winds gusting up to
30 mph. Winds may become light or calm Fri night/Sat AM as the
1032+mb high settles over the region. This will likely be the
coldest night of the season so far, with lows in the lower- mid
20s in most areas, and upper teens are certainly possible in
typically cooler areas over the Piedmont. Mostly sunny and dry
conditions, and cooler temperatures then linger through the
weekend. However, increasing heights/thicknesses and a modifying
airmass likely allow for temps to moderate a bit over the
weekend into early next week, as a deep trough builds over the
Rockies allowing deep-layered SW flow. Several disturbances in
the flow are expected to track over the area early next week as
well, which will increase rain chances (and potentially allow
for a more widespread wetting rain).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals prevail through
much of the 18z TAF period on SSE winds 5-10 kt gusting to ~15
kt. Thickening/lowering clouds are expected late afternoon
through this evening before CIGs lower late tonight. Showers in
association with a warm front lifting across the region will
bring an increasing chance of light rain at RIC/SBY between
22z/5p EST and 05z/midnight, and a PROB30 has been appended for
this potential.

Otherwise, a better chance for periods of degraded flight
conditions arrive at RIC/SBY/PHF with the passage of the warm
front, primarily after 03-05z, with MVFR to IFR CIGs likely.
VFR/MVFR conditions likely prevail through most of the night at
ORF/ECG, more likely around and after sunrise Wed. The best
chance of showers is between 05-12z Wednesday morning. Isolated
tstms or at least a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out,
but strong/severe storms aren`t expected. Winds become S-SSW at
10-12kt with gusts to 20kt tonight.

After a brief lull, Isolated showers/tstms are possible
Wednesday aftn/evening along and just ahead of a strong cold
front. VFR conditions prevail post-frontal Wednesday night
through Saturday, as a markedly drier and colder airmass
overspreads the region. A WNW wind of 10-15kt with gusts up to
25kt is expected Thanksgiving Day. Breezier Friday with a NW
wind of 12-18kt gusting to 25-30kt, highest around KSBY. High
pressure then builds over the area Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the Chesapeake
  Bay, coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light, and the
  tidal rivers into early Wednesday morning.

- A strong cold front crosses the local waters Wednesday evening into
  Wednesday night, bringing strong Small Craft Advisory
  conditions to the local waters. A few gusts up to 35 kt are
  possible Wednesday night.

- Winds remain elevated into Friday night with high end Small
  Craft Advisory to marginal Gale conditions possible Thursday
  night into Friday.

Latest surface analysis depicted an area of high pressure offshore
with an elongated area of low pressure over the Midwest and Great
Lakes and the associated warm front near the VA/NC border. The warm
front lifts north later this afternoon into tonight, allowing for
WAA advection to ramp up overnight. As such, S winds are expected to
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by this evening into
tonight. Therefore, SCAs remain in effect for the Ches Bay, tidal
rivers, and coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light through
tonight. However, will note that confidence in winds reaching SCA
criteria across the tidal rivers has decreased. Additionally, hi-res
CAMs have trended lower with the winds late tonight through the day
Wed. As such, SCAs may need to be expired early.

The aforementioned area of low pressure moves NE across the
Great Lakes on Wed, pushing a strong cold front across the local
waters Wed evening into Wed night. Winds quickly become W/WNW
20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the cold front. A few
gusts up to 35 kt are possible, however, the confidence in
reaching 35 kt and the duration of the surge is too low to go
with Gale Warnings. Instead, SMWs may be issued if needed.
Winds briefly diminish to 15-20 kt Thu before a secondary surge
of CAA arrives Thu night into Fri. Winds increase with this
surge to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. However, if winds
trend a bit higher, Gale conditions would be possible. For now,
have winds just below Gale criteria. Additionally, probs for 34
kt gusts are quite low (<5% across the Ches Bay and generally
<20% across the coastal waters). As such, have held off on any
potential Gale Watches at this time. Winds become NW and
diminish on Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds into the
area.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas build to 2-3 ft and 3-5 ft (4-5 ft across the
northern coastal waters) respectively tonight. Seas may linger at 4-
5 ft across the northern coastal waters into the day on Wed,
however, confidence is low. Waves build to 3-4 ft Wed night through
Fri night behind the cold front with a brief period of 4-5 ft waves
possible. Seas build to 4-5 ft during that timeframe.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Wed 11/26


Record           Record
                High/Year
--------        --------
Eliz. City, NC   78/1946
Richmond         76/1999
Norfolk          76/1990
Salisbury        74/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...