766
FNAK72 PAFC 251433
FWSALU

Spot Forecast for FY 2026 Katmai Pile Burning...Wildland Fire Service (NPS)
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
633 AM AKDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 AKDT on September 25.
.DISCUSSION...

A temporary break in rain is occurring this morning in the wake
of yesterday`s passing front. However, scattered showers,
including wetting rain changes, are expected to increase again
this afternoon. There is a high probability of unsettled weather continuing
through the weekend (greater than 90 percent) as the main low over
the Bering Sea finally pushes into the YK Delta with continued
rain showers. Winds will remain predominantly out of the southeast
at 5 to 10 mph through Sunday. Occasional gusts into the 10 to 15
mph range will also be possible. As the aforementioned low moves
into Southwest Alaska on Saturday, cold temperatures aloft will
support a threat for isolated wet thunderstorms, though confidence
is low for the overall potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 46 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.

TIME (AKDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  85  85  41  41  41  75  75  75  86  86
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  50  50  50  70  70
Temp............42  42  43  45  47  49  51  52  52  52  52
RH..............95  93  92  91  86  83  79  78  78  80  81
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   12  12  12  16  16  16  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the evening, then chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening. Rain showers
                    likely overnight.
CWR.................46 percent increasing to 77 percent after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.

TIME (AKDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86  71  71  71  74  74  74  71  71  71  85  85
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  80  80
Chc of pcpn (%).70  60  60  60  50  50  50  60  60  60  70  70
Temp............51  49  47  46  45  45  45  45  45  46  45  45
RH..............82  86  90  94  94  94  94  94  94  93  89  91
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  9   9   9   7   7   7   8   8   8   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  12  12  12  10  10  10  13  13  13  16  16

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the morning, then rain showers. Slight
                    chance of wet thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................77 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    south around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 16 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.14 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.

TIME (AKDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
CWR.............80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  70  70
Chc of pcpn (%).70  80  80  80  80  80  80  90  90  90  90  90
Temp............45  45  45  46  47  48  50  51  51  51  50  49
RH..............91  92  94  96  96  93  89  85  85  86  88  91
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   10  10  10  9   9   9   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.9   12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  15  13  13  13  14  14  14  14  14

$$
Forecaster...BLawson
Requested by...Nathan Gilmore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622215.4/ALU
.DELDT 09/25/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nathan_Gilmore@nps.gov