748
FXUS61 KALY 281812
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue to impact the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region, northern Catskills, Taconics, southern
Vermont and the Berkshires into tonight before tapering overnight.
High pressure will bring cold and drier conditions for Saturday.
A low pressure system passing well west of the region will bring
snow mixed with rain for Sunday with another system bringing
potentially a widespread snowfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A period of lake effect snow will set up across the Mohawk
  Valley, Northern Catskills, Capital District and parts of
  western New England today. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches
  are expected in the most persistent lake effect bands, mainly
  across the Mohawk Valley.

- A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Herkimer and
  Hamilton Counties with Winter Weather Advisories for Fulton,
  Montgomery, Schoharie, eastern Rensselaer and northern
  Berkshire counties.

- Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph today could lead to some
  blowing and drifting snow.

- A low pressure system will bring mixed rain and snow on Sunday
  with moderate snow accumulations possible across portions of
  the Adirondacks.

Discussion:

An upper level trough is beginning to cross the region early
this morning. A lake effect band has impacted the Adirondacks
over the past several hours, mainly along and north of Route 28.
As the trough crosses through the overnight, winds will shift
to a more west- northwesterly direction with the band gradually
sinking southward. Through the morning hours, the primary band
will become oriented within the Mohawk Valley and gradually
expand well inland, thanks to a multi-lake connection with
Georgian Bay, into the Hudson Valley (mainly the Capital
District) and portions of western New England (mainly southern
Vermont into western Massachusetts). There remains some
uncertainty where the band will set up exactly today as the
band may only be around 15 miles wide. The scenarios continue
to be either the band setting up right along the entire Thruway
corridor or just to the south. Based on a disruption to the
low- level wind flow, some fluctuations in the band location and
intensity is expected this morning but the band could become
more stationary and more intense by this afternoon. Where it
does set up, expect snowfall rates to reach 1 to 2 inches per
hour with near whiteout conditions at times. Snowfall
accumulations will widely vary based on where the band sets up
with 6-12 inches where the band becomes most persistent. Some
locations within southern Herkimer County are likely to reach
these totals. Some of these localized amounts could even extend
into parts of Fulton, Montgomery or Schoharie counties pending
band location and duration. Even snowfall amounts of 1 to 4
inches can occur within portions of the Hudson Valley
(especially the Capital District) with slightly higher amounts
(2 to 5 inches) for parts of the northern Taconics into western
Massachusetts. Anyone traveling for the holiday weekend today in
these areas should be on alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions today with dry weather/pavement to near whiteout
conditions occurring within just a few miles. Lake Effect Snow
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect into
tonight. Wind will also pick up today with frequent gusts
between 30 and 40 mph. This could lead to some areas of blowing
and drifting snow, especially where temperatures hover near or
below freezing. High temperatures today will only reach the 30s
except lower 40s across the mid- Hudson Valley and mid to upper
20s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens.

Wind flow will become more northwesterly tonight and weaken in
intensity as the upper trough departs and surface high pressure
builds in from the west. The lake effect band will begin to
weaken in intensity, reduce inland extent and possibly drift
farther southward overnight into more of the Catskills. Saturday
will feature more clouds than sun but it will remain somewhat
breezy and chilly with highs similar to today. The flow
gradually shifts back to a more westerly direction where some
light lake effect snow showers may linger, mainly across
southern and central Herkimer County, though any additional
accumulations will be little to none.

Clouds increase again Saturday night as the next low pressure
system tracks across the Great Lakes. Precipitation will begin
to overspread the region later Saturday night and continue
through the day Sunday. Snow or a rain/snow mix to start will
transition to rain or a rain/snow mix through the day Sunday.
The greatest precipitation amounts are expected to occur within
the southern foothills of the Adirondacks as strong southerly
flow enhances upslope flow. Latest NBM probabilities for greater
than 4 inches on Sunday are 50 and 80 percent within parts of
the Adirondacks with less than 40 percent probabilities for
greater than 7 inches. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed
later in time for these areas. This flow could also lead to some
downsloping effects and lower precipitation amounts for parts
of the Mohawk Valley and Hudson Valley. Temperatures Sunday rise
into the mid-30s to mid-40s. As the system and cold front
depart, the return of cold air aloft and west to northwesterly
flow will generate another round of lake effect snow showers
for Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- A low pressure system tracking south and east of the region
  Tuesday into Wednesday could bring a widespread snowfall with
  latest NBM probabilities of greater than 4 inches at 30 to 50
  percent.

Discussion...

Any lake effect response will be short lived on Monday as high
pressure quickly builds in overhead with drier weather. On
Tuesday, a northern and southern stream shortwave will interact
with one another forming a surface low near the Lower
Mississippi Valley coast and track northeastward off the East
Coast. While there is consensus of a track to the south and east
of our region, there is some spread with how close to the coast
it does track. Regardless of track, if precipitation were to
occur, it would mostly be in the form of snow. A track closer to
the coast would increase snowfall accumulations with a track
farther off the coast likely resulting in less snow or no snow
at all. Latest NBM probabilities of greater than 4 inches are
between 30 and 50 percent across all of eastern New York and
western New England. Will continue to monitor trends for this
precipitation event. This system departs the region Tuesday
night with high pressure bringing drier weather on Wednesday.
Some snow showers are then possible to return by next Thursday
as a cold front crosses the Great Lakes, especially for areas
north and west of the Capital District. Temperatures for next
week will run below normal with highs in the 20s and 30s and
lows in the teens and 20s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Lake effect snow bands have been
drifting in and out of terminal boundaries throughout the
morning and into early this afternoon, forcing disruptions to
favored flying conditions. METAR observations have indicated
MVFR to IFR conditions within the heaviest bands and such
conditions are anticipated to continue for brief periods of time
into tonight.

Outside of a stray, light snow shower, KGFL should not see any more
impacts due to lake effect snow bands and will subsequently maintain
VFR conditions through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. KALB and
KPSF, based on latest radar trends and model guidance, will see some
IFR conditions through the afternoon and into early this evening due
to more persistent lake effect snow bands that will begin to shift
farther south and east. KPOU should, like KGFL, also remain
precipitation free through the 18z cycle, yielding a persistence of
VFR conditions. The lake effect bands that will impact KALB and KPSF
this afternoon are anticipated to sink farther south and rescind to
the west tonight, such that VFR conditions will be returned for
these sites as well.

Winds will remain gusty out of the west to northwest through the
entirety of the 18z TAF period with sustained speeds ranging from
about 10 to 15 kt with gusts reaching 20 to 25. Isolated gusts of 30
to 35 kt will be possible at times, especially at KALB and KPSF
where rapid cooling from heavier snow could enhance downward
motion.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Likely RA...SN.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN...SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ054.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ032-
     033.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ039-040-
     047-082.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MAZ001.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...37