698
FXUS61 KALY 070631
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and chilly conditions today will give way to areas of light
snow tonight as a clipper quickly moves through the region.
Behind this system, cold and blustery conditions are expected on
Monday. Additional chances of rain and snow are expected through
the upcoming week as we remain locked in an unsettled weather
pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating snow
  this evening through tonight. NBM probabilities for seeing 1" or
  snow or greater are highest (60-100%) for the western and central
  Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley.

Discussion:

As of 100 AM, high pressure was centered across the Southeast,
with a cold front to our north and west across Ontario and
eastern Great Lakes. Light snow showers were occurring along and
ahead of the front, though coverage was rather sparse as
moisture was lacking with the front. Temperatures as of this
writing were in the 20s to low 30s

Through daytime today, the cold front will continue to move south
across the region, and is progged to reach southern New England
and northern Pennsylvania by mid-morning. This will allow for
an influx of colder air and morning lows to drop into the single
digits to low 20s. Dry conditions are also expected, with areas
across the Mid Hudson Valley also seeing breaks of sunshine.

Clouds will fill back in through the morning into early afternoon
with the arrival of a weak clipper system from the west late this
afternoon into early tonight. As advertised in the previous AFD,
this system is weak in nature w.r.t. forcing with a track favored
mainly across the North Country and Lake Ontario. This will result
in the best forcing and moisture being displaced north of the area,
limiting total QPF for eastern New York and western New England.
Latest NBM remains on track for snow accumulations of around 1-3
inches mainly for high elevation locations in the western/southern
ADKs and southern Greens, with lesser amounts across the Mohawk
Valley and Lake George-Saratoga regions. Outside of here,
little to no accumulation of snow is expected. While some
locally slippery spots are possible over the ADKs, most areas
won`t be seeing any impacts.

Colder air will return for Monday as high pressure quickly moves
across the region. It will be blustery as well with northwest winds
initially gusting around 20-30 MPH before subsiding for the
afternoon and evening. Despite the sunshine, highs will struggle to
climb into the teens to mid 20s (potentially colder at higher
elevations), with overnight lows falling near to below zero.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the high will quickly depart to our
east with weak southerly flow behind it, though temperatures will
remain chilly with highs only in the 20s. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of another clipper system taking aim at the region,
which looks to mainly impact the region Tuesday night. Similar to
the last system, a track more north of the region will limit total
QPF for us as favorable lift and moisture will be displaced more
into Canada and the North Country. A few inches of snow will be
possible once again mainly across the western/central ADKs and
Mohawk Valley, with little to now accumulation elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Several chances of rain/snow in the long term as an active flow
  regime remains near the region

Discussion:
Strong polar jet stream will remain near to just south of the region
through the duration of the long term period, with several
shortwaves/troughs progged to track along it. This will keep the
region under the gun for several chances of precipitation from mid-
week into next weekend.

On the heels of our Tuesday clipper, another clipper will arrive
across the region Wednesday. This one looks to be stronger with a
positively tilted shortwave and surface low, which is favored by
majority of guidance to track near to just north of the region.
Forecast soundings suggest more available moisture with this clipper
and more robust forcing, which will result in higher chances
(currently 50-90%) of precipitation for eastern New York and western
New England. Little change with regard to the system evolution has
been noted with this forecast update, with all locations seeing snow
initially before a transition to rain/snow and all rain occurs
Wednesday morning and afternoon. NBM continues to advertise a low to
medium probability (40-50%) of at least a coating of snow areawide
before the transition to rain in valley locations, with low to
medium probability of amounts greater than 1" (40-60%) mainly
in higher terrain locations.

We will quiet down briefly to close out the work week, though some
low chance POPs remain in the forecast (10-30%) as several weak
shortwaves track across the region in northwest flow. It will be
cooler as well with daytime highs and lows favored to remain below
normal. There is potential for another system to impact the region
late Thursday and Friday, but models remain quite variable on the
track and strength of it, resulting in low confidence in evolution
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...High pressure builds in this morning with
mainly VFR conditions with cigs bkn-ovc 3.5-5 kft AGL KALB-KPSF
northward to KGFL. Some scattered clouds are near KPOU. The cigs
may lower to MVFR levels in the 1.0-2.5 KFT range at KPSF
between 08Z-12Z/Sun. There is a small chance some MVFR clouds
may impact KALB, but we kept them scattered for now. The flight
conditions should be VFR most of the morning into the early
afternoon, except for KPSF where MVFR clouds will persist until
close to noon. The next clipper and cold front approach the TAF
sites in the late afternoon/early evening with cloud bases
lowering to low VFR/MVFR KALB-KPSF northward with some PROB30
groups with snow showers with MVFR/spotty IFR vsbys KALB-KPSF
northward 21Z/Sun to 00Z/Mon. The snow showers should diminish
shortly after 00Z/Mon at KALB/KPSF but may linger until 04Z/Mon
for KGFL with IFR/MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will
improve to VFR between 02Z-06Z/Mon.

The winds will be light and variable at 3 KT or less this
morning. They will increase from the southeast to south at 4-8
KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will shift
to west/southwest in the early evening at 8-12 KT with some
gusts 15-20 KT.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...15