744
FXUS61 KALY 021848
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread moderate to heavy snowfall continues across the
region through this evening. Dry conditions expected late
tonight through Wednesday. An Arctic cold front will then move
across the area late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
snow showers and a few snow squalls. In wake of the cold front,
a bitterly cold air mass will move in Thursday night into Friday
with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
  effect for most of eastern New York and western New England
  through this evening.

- Moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5" to 1" per hour are
  expected through late afternoon/early evening. This will
  especially affect the afternoon commute.

Discussion:

The previous forecast thinking for today`s winter storm remains
largely on track. Regional radar imagery shows an area of
steadier snowfall along and east of an axis of 850 hPa
frontogenesis extending from the Catskills northward into the
Central Mohawk Valley. This area of steadier snowfall will
likely produce periods of snowfall rates 1" per hour or greater
through 4 PM-6 PM as it gradually progresses to the ENE. This
will especially affect the afternoon and evening commutes.
Additional snowfall amounts of 2-5 inches are expected across
the region through this evening and no changes were made to the
current Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories. However, it should
be noted that these products will likely be cancelled early as
snowfall is currently expected to end from west to east during
the 7 PM-10 PM time range.

In addition to snowfall, there will also be the potential for
freezing rain across southern Litchfield County late this
afternoon and evening as 850 hPa warm air advection increases in
association with the deepening surface cyclone off the coast.
There is a high chance (greater than 70 percent) that total
ice accumulations will remain less than 0.1 inch and the main
impact of hazardous travel conditions will remain the same
regardless of whether or not there is an accumulation of ice.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:

On Wed, surface ridging extending NE from high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic region will bring tranquil but
cool conditions.

Chances for snow showers increase from NW to SE late Wed night
into Thu associated with an Arctic cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Model guidance continues to
signal an environment favorable for snow squalls with the
passage of the Arctic front. We will continue to monitor
the potential for significant impacts from these snow squalls.
Temperatures will drop significantly behind the Arctic front
late Thu into Thu night. Low temperatures will easily be the
coldest of the season so far, with widespread 0 to -5F in most
of the higher terrain to single digits in lower elevations.
However, winds are expected to diminish with high pressure
building in during the night and ensemble guidance has only low
to medium chances of apparent temperatures less than -10 F
confined to the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. So at this time,
Cold Weather Advisories appear to be unlikely.

The remainder of the long term will feature below normal
temperatures, with just slight to low chance for snow over the
weekend. The storm track remains fairly active, but it appears
the bulk of snow from any systems look to remain south of our
area. Will continue to monitor trends as a slight northerly
shift in the storm track would bring snow more into play. High
pressure is then expected to build back in early next week with
dry conditions, but with continued cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...Widespread light to moderate snow
continues throughout eastern New York and western New England
this afternoon, forcing LIFR conditions at all TAF sites. Latest
KENX radar scans show another heavy batch of snow approaching
the terminals, so TEMPO groups were added to the TAFs for
moderate to heavy snow over the next few hours. Behind this
thump, snow should begin to slow and taper off into this evening
such that conditions gradually begin to improve to IFR and then
MVFR. Snow looks to cease by 23-00z wherein visibilities should
return to VFR and ceilings to MVFR. Lowered ceilings will remain
in place throughout much of the overnight period as low-level
moisture remains elevated. However, by daybreak/mid-morning
tomorrow, ceilings will match visibilities within the VFR
category and favored flying conditions will remain in place
through the remainder of the 18z cycle. Winds throughout this
time will remain on the light side, with sustained speeds
remaining under 10 kt out of a variable northerly direction
(northwest to northeast).

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ001.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-
     033-038-040-042-043-047-060-061-064>066.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ039-041-
     048>054-058-059-063-082>084.
MA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...07/91
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM...07/91
AVIATION...37