682
FXUS61 KALY 062343
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
743 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #280 has been cancelled. Severe
thunderstorms were concentrated across Ulster, Dutchess and
Litchfield counties earlier but have moved out of the area.
Another complex of severe thunderstorms should remain just to
the south of these areas across New Jersey, New York City and
southern Connecticut. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have remained
below severe limits and with the loss of daylight, expecting a
gradual diminish in activity through the evening hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and drier weather returns late Sun into Mon with
temps trending back above normal by the mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The cold front moves across the region tonight. The showers and
thunderstorms will end prior to midnight. Some upslope showers
may linger over the western Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Some patchy fog may form south of the Capital Region and near
the Lake George Region. Otherwise, cold advection will be
occurring with breezy west winds. Lows fall back into the 50s to
lower 60s. Isolated to scattered showers especially from the
I-90 corridor northward will occur in the late morning through
the mid afternoon with the upper level trough moving overheard.
In the cyclonic flow with an embedded short-wave, mid level
lapse rates will steepen. Instability is low in the 200-500 J/kg
range based on the HREFs, as a few isolated thunderstorms are
possible from the Hudson River Valley eastward, but as the
afternoon progress the showers will decrease in coverage in the
mid to late pm. Temps will be cooler than today with 60s to
lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid 70s to spotty lower
80s (mid Hudson Valley) in the valleys. Northwest winds will be
10-20 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph with better mixing/momentum
transfer and we went above the NBM guidance.

High pressure builds in Sun night into Mon with drier weather
and cooler temps briefly. Lows fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s
Sun night with decreasing winds. The sfc ridge brings mostly
sunny skies for Mon with near to slightly above normal temps.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys and
upper 60s to mid 70s in the valleys. Temps radiate Mon night
into Tue morning with the high pressure over the NY and upper
Mid Atlantic corridor with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Low-level warm advection and heights rise on Tue with the sfc
high to the south and west allow temps to continue to rise above
normal. The air mass remains dry and due to the NBM warm bias
we lowered 2-4 degrees for highs and coordinated with WFOs.
Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s for the valleys and
upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns with heat indices
below advisory thresholds. Temps and heat indices rise from the
mid week onward into Fri. Some uncertainty exists how hot we
get based on the latest NBM/WPC forecast for late next week. A
warm front and a short-wave brings a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for Wed. Sfc dewpoints rise for the late week and
with temps in the mid 80s to lower/mid 90s in the forecast some
locations may need heat headlines late in the week into next
weekend,as it gets more humid. Again, quite a bit of uncertainty
continues to exist.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z/Mon...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are exiting
the TAF sites with only a tempo included at KPSF for a brief
shower or two until 01-02z/Sun. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for most sites for most of the overnight hours. The
exception may be at KPSF where upslope flow develops MVFR
stratus/stratocu around or after 06z/Sun. Mixed MVFR/VFR
conditions due to cigs and/or vsbys are expected on Sunday as
moist, cyclonic flow brings a few additional rain showers to
some TAF sites, mainly KGFL/KALB/KPSF. KPOU looks to remain VFR.

Wind will be west to southwesterly around 10 kt with a few gusts
to 20 kt tonight then more northwesterly on Sunday at 10-15 kt
with gusts to around 25 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33/15
AVIATION...33