797
FXUS61 KALY 191852
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
252 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Beautiful weather conditions will finish out the weekend and
start the new work week.

2) Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday
through Wednesday but confidence is low in the severe weather
potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

From oppressive heat, to severe weather, to unhealthy air
quality due to wildfire smoke, we`ve had quite the eventful July
thus far. But for the remainder of today and tomorrow, a much
needed respite from remarkable weather presents itself in the
form of surface high pressure building eastward across the
Northeast from the Upper Midwest. Resulting slightly below to
near normal temperatures and dry weather through Monday will
make for absolutely gorgeous conditions across eastern New York
and western New england. Enjoy!

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure departs our region Monday night, introducing a
deepening mid- to upper-level trough to the Upper Midwest and
eventually the Northeast. At the surface, a potent surface low
will slide south of the James Bay, extending a warm front
to the west of our region by Tuesday morning. Several
shortwaves embedded within the parent trough may aid in
generating some light, warm advection showers ahead of the front Tuesday
morning across portions of eastern New York and western New
England. However, more widespread and potentially moderate
showers and thunderstorms look to track through the region
Tuesday afternoon with the warm front. At this time, confidence
is very low in the severe weather potential on Tuesday, given
the timing of the incoming frontal system. Latest guidance seems
to indicate a slower passage of the warm front which would
limit, if not completely eliminate, our time within the
impending warm sector ahead of the trailing cold front.
HiRes CAMs point to areas west of the Hudson River Valley
attaining around 300-800 J/kg of SBCAPE with fairly widespread
deep layer shear around 30 to pockets of 50 kt. Therefore, it`s
possible, given favorable timing, that isolated to scattered
severe storms develop Tuesday afternoon which is also hinted at
by the SPC`s Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (Level 2 of 5)
Risk for severe weather.

Regardless of the severe outcome, at least showers will continue
through Tuesday night and further into Wednesday as the warm
front passes followed by the cold front and axis of the primary
trough. Total QPF looks to range generally from about 0.5" to
locally higher amounts of 1.5". And while there are no
widespread flooding concerns, the Weather Prediction Center has
maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) across our area for
isolated instances of flash flooding. Anomalous PWATs (~1.5
STDEVs above normal) and strong forcing with this system
suggest that moderate to locally heavy downpours are highly
plausible, particularly within any thunderstorms. Therefore, at
least nuisance ponding of water can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Northwest winds
continue to range between 10 and 15 knots with gusts between
15 and 25 knots through this afternoon. Winds decrease and
become light and variable around sunset tonight (20/00z).

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...05