864
FXUS61 KALY 232302
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
702 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered minimum temperatures tonight and Friday night from the
NBM due to efficient radiational cooling conditions. Also
continued mention of patchy fog in favored sheltered valleys.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures and low
humidity expected through the upcoming weekend.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Monday
into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will build east across the region tonight, and
take residence across the Northeast CONUS through the weekend.
This pattern will result in dry conditions, light winds, mostly
sunny/clear skies, cool nights, seasonably warm days and
comfortable humidity levels. Dewpoints are expected to remain in
the 40s(mountains) to 50s(lower elevations) through the
weekend. The air mass will gradually warm, although even Sat/Sun
highs should only reach the mid 80s in valley locations, which
is near normal for late July. There will also likely be patchy
fog developing each night in favored sheltered valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more unsettled early to middle of
next week, as an upper level trough becomes established across
SE Canada, the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A lead short-wave
trough brings the next chance of showers/T-storms on Mon,
followed by more widespread activity on Tue as a surface wave
potentially tracks east across the area. Severe weather
potential is uncertain at this time due to questionable
instability/shear and timing. PWATs forecast to remain within 1
STDEV of normal, so any locally heavy rain will likely be
modulated by where convection occurs. The showers/T-storms could
linger into Wed if the upper trough moves slower, although
latest trends indicate a more progressive trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Sat, some patchy ground fog may develop (30-50%
chance) between 04Z-08Z/Fri at KGFL, and may intermittently
produce IFR Vsbys through around 12Z/Fri. KPSF could also
experience a bit of patchy fog, mainly between 07Z-11Z/Fri,
however overall chances are lower (10-30%) than at KGFL.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 00Z/Sat. Winds
will become light/variable to calm overnight through Friday
morning, then trend into the southwest to south at 4-8 KT in the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...24